Filling a vacuum in a post-Brexit world with thoughtful centre-right political commentary from a senior political adviser who is founder of an international marketing and media relations consultancy.
Author: Julian Samways
Julian is a former Conservative Parliamentary candidate who now runs an international marketing and media relations consultancy for leading financial services companies, working predominantly with asset managers on all aspects of global political, business and investment trends. He undertakes a role advising the Conservative Party on candidate selection and training and took an active role in the ‘Remain’ campaign understanding the potential impact of Brexit on international businesses who have chosen the UK as their route into Europe. He periodically comments on current affairs for a range of media outlets as an independent contributor with an inside track on centre right politics.
Donald Trump once said: ‘I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I still wouldn’t lose any (Republican activist) voters, OK?’
Economically, Trump has done just that. Tariffs everywhere. The end of globalisation as we know it. A potential worldwide recession, higher inflation, the breakdown of traditional Western alliances. It is all in the melting pot, and the President of the United States doesn’t care. He is bulletproof, so to speak.
A President out of control…
He has always been in favour of tariffs, taking out advertisements back in the 80s supporting the concept, combining it with disgust at paying to defend countries he deemed could afford to protect themselves. He may have a point on the latter issue, but American defence companies have made a fortune in the process.
Nobody can say they didn’t know what they were electing with Trump. Except… there are no policy analyses in presidential elections. None of his views were ever really tested in debate. For example, the economic jingoism of tariffs resonates with ordinary Republican activists/voters and many others besides but not the realities/practicalities. Such rashness would always be tested in a UK General Election campaign. Just ask Theresa May and her 2017 social care proposals.
Professional Republican politicians, Reaganites if you like, who were brought up believing in free-trade, NATO, and Western democratic values have been swept aside by far-right, isolationist MAGA activists who have taken over the GOP and terrified them into silence.
Cowardice prevails. Janan Ganash of the FT at my company’s annual investment seminar back in November warned Trump, with no re-election pressures, would be unleashed. There seems to be no checks and balances amongst Republicans, professional or otherwise on his actions.
Trump today means what he says. Tariffs, Greenland, the Panama Canal, a bromance with Putin, a third term. He is serious about them all.
Republicans created this monster or, rather, failed to stop him. Whether it be a global recession or a carve up of Ukraine just to start with, they will own the grim consequences of a president who is out of control.
Civilised democracies’ opponents sadly now include America in addition to Russia and China. There is no longer such a thing as the West and Western values.
Everything can be bought under Trump. Threats and bribes will decide the outcome of any negotiation. There is no morality, no commitment to democratic values. Autocratic strength is paramount, and the new competitive bromance is between Trump, Putin, and Xi.
Simply an appalling President, tearing up Western values
A Sky News commentator years ago warned that Trump and his acolytes wanted the world divided between these powers without any guiding principles except the acquisition of power and money. Autocrats rule, the weak are crushed, and red meat and lies are thrown at voters to keep them acquiescent, that is, if voters exist at all. It seems this is the case.
This blog has already torn up one 2025 prediction that Trump would be better than expected. He is worse. Far, far worse. Surrounded by immoral (no longer amoral), ideological operators a clear political, anti-democratic agenda is unfolding.
The vile Vice President Vance was a disgrace in front of Zelenskyy and has insulted European democracies and the actions of their soldiers in previous wars. The Defence Secretary, Hegseth, clearly a moron, participated in leaked secret plans for a military strike in the Middle East on an unprotected online platform. An anti-European group chat of senior Trump Administration officials, oh, and the Editor-in-Chief of The Atlantic magazine by accident. Any resignations? No, just obfuscation and a wholly unfounded attack on the journalist to try and discredit him to hide the scandal.
Then we have Musk. In charge of DOGE (a new department to improve government efficiency – actually not a bad concept if done properly), he is totally out of control. Randomly firing government employees, he bizarrely finds time to support far-right extremists across Europe.
Finally, we have a US President, yes, a US President, praising Russia and its leader Putin, threatening Canada and Greenland, insulting Europe, and planning to carve up Ukraine like Hitler and Chamberlain did with the Czechoslovakia Sudetenland or Stalin and Hitler did with Poland. This is not an exaggeration. It is that serious.
The upside? Europe and other countries with clear democratic principles are uniting to manage their future without the US and possibly NATO. Long overdue.
Americans are either supportive of Trump or seemingly oblivious. The Democrats are impotent, hopelessly directionless, and wholly responsible for Trump’s victory.
The consequences of Trump’s actions are hard to contemplate. But one thing is for sure. The world is becoming an amoral marketplace with everything for sale. Democracy is scorned, and American voters should be ashamed of what is being done in their name.
Civilised democracies’ opponents sadly now include America in addition to Russia and China. There is no longer such a thing as the West and Western values.
Everything can be bought under Trump. Threats and bribes will decide the outcome of any negotiation. There is no morality, no commitment to democratic values. Autocratic strength is paramount, and the new competitive bromance is between Trump, Putin, and Xi.
Simply an appalling President, tearing up Western values
A Sky News commentator years ago warned that Trump and his acolytes wanted the world divided between these powers without any guiding principles except the acquisition of power and money. Autocrats rule, the weak are crushed, and red meat and lies are thrown at voters to keep them acquiescent, that is, if voters exist at all. It seems this is the case.
This blog has already torn up one 2025 prediction that Trump would be better than expected. He is worse. Far, far worse. Surrounded by immoral (no longer amoral), ideological operators a clear political, anti-democratic agenda is unfolding.
The vile Vice President Vance was a disgrace in front of Zelenskyy and has insulted European democracies and the actions of their soldiers in previous wars. The Defence Secretary, Hegseth, clearly a moron, participated in leaked secret plans for a military strike in the Middle East on an unprotected online platform. An anti-European group chat of senior Trump Administration officials, oh, and the Editor-in-Chief of The Atlantic magazine by accident. Any resignations? No, just obfuscation and a wholly unfounded attack on the journalist to try and discredit him to hide the scandal.
Then we have Musk. In charge of DOGE (a new department to improve government efficiency – actually not a bad concept if done properly), he is totally out of control. Randomly firing government employees, he bizarrely finds time to support far-right extremists across Europe.
Finally, we have a US President, yes, a US President, praising Russia and its leader Putin, threatening Canada and Greenland, insulting Europe, and planning to carve up Ukraine like Hitler and Chamberlain did with the Czechoslovakia Sudetenland or Stalin and Hitler did with Poland. This is not an exaggeration. It is that serious.
The upside? Europe and other countries with clear democratic principles are uniting to manage their future without the US and possibly NATO. Long overdue.
Americans are either supportive of Trump or seemingly oblivious. The Democrats are impotent, hopelessly directionless, and wholly responsible for Trump’s victory.
The consequences of Trump’s actions are hard to contemplate. But one thing is for sure. The world is becoming an amoral marketplace with everything for sale. Democracy is scorned, and American voters should be ashamed of what is being done in their name.
In one word: competence. There has been such a shortage of it from UK governments in recent years that justifying this attribute would be enough.
What we don’t need is ideology. It led nowhere for Labour under Corbyn in Opposition and led the country over the cliff under Johnson/Cummings and Truss. Add in a lack of ideological compromise over EU membership, leading to Brexit, and the disaster of such an approach is clear.
Competence over ideology should be the point of this Labour government
In recent times, perhaps only Margaret Thatcher made ideology work. But she was competent, the country was badly off course, and her free market ideology often cloaked a good deal of compromise.
Over the pond, Trump, with his tariffs, DOGE, and embrace of strongmen/billionaires, represents a sort of anti-democratic philosophy that may also take his Administration over a cliff. One hopes so, although the consequence of Europe having to finally stand up for its own defence provides some compensation.
But back to the Labour government. It seems to be gradually finding its feet, and not just in international relations. Only Labour can reform the NHS and benefits system free from the charge of hard-hearted malice. Tackling unsustainable disability benefits and stripping the not fit for purpose NHS of some of its bureaucracy by abolishing NHS England is a good start to proving its ideological flexibility.
Prior to that, cutting the international aid budget to pay for increases in defence expenditure again strikes a blow for practicality over principle. Labour from the centre-left got away with it lightly. Even the Tories could not disagree.
Governing is messy. Unpredictable events drive the best laid plans off course. Competing priorities means good government has to compromise. Competence is everything, and that alone will dictate voters’ impressions of whether Starmer and co. deserve a second term.
There is so much more to do. Further NHS reform, changes to the planning system, initiatives to make the civil service and local government more efficient are all badly needed and now. This government needs to go further and faster but not with the burden of ideological certainty.
My betting today is that Labour will win the next election with an increased share of the vote but a sharply reduced majority. This is a similar prediction to that made by Jacob Rees-Mogg at a Spectator magazine meeting I attended! We shall see, but in the face of such hopeless Tory Opposition, they should do.
Today, it feels like a successful Labour government is the only barrier to highly damaging polarised politics washing up on our shores.
The very nature of populism contains the seeds of its self-destruction. It is led by individuals who don’t care about their voters and who are usually incompetent at governing. But, most importantly, populism is based on conflicting aims. It is the latter which does for it in the end. The only problem is how much cumulative damage is done when populist regimes are in power. It can be a while before they are found out.
Waiting for populism to have its comeuppance will take patience…
But please indulge me. Let’s start with an amusing little theatrical performance from Reform UK. They have struck a nerve with the electorate in the UK and are (were) ahead in the opinion polls. The only problem is their 5 MPs are falling out spectacularly. Some guy called Rupert Lowe, MP for Great Yarmouth, has just attacked Farage’s leadership only to be stripped of the whip due to allegations of bullying and threatening the Party Chair, Zia Yusuf. He has been offered the chance to form a new far-right party with ex-Brexit Party MEP Ben Habib, who also fell out with Farage. Elon Musk was a fan of Lowe versus Farage, apparently, and that is probably at the heart of this dispute. Meanwhile, and more importantly, Reform UK have been forced into silence due to their support of Donald Trump, who is deeply unpopular in the UK. The US, under his leadership, is no longer even seen as an ally of the West according to the latest opinion polls despite a potential Ukraine peace deal – on what terms?). Oh dear. This all might be short-term turbulence for Reform, but it confirms this blog’s opinion that the party has a natural ceiling of support, which is lower than most observers think.
Anyway, on to the populist with real power, Donald Trump. He, too, is beginning to hit turbulence, although still hugely popular with his core base. Tariffs may really hurt the ordinary American voter soon and that is reflected in the worse period for the US stock market since 2022 with Tesla losing 15% alone. The latter is beginning to feel like a bitcoin investment. US inflation and therefore interest rates may well end up higher and growth lower as a result of Trump’s policies although currently he doesn’t seem to care. We shall see.
Elsewhere domestically, more conflicted aims are appearing. A purge of immigrants will hit higher house building, an election promise of Trump. A move away from climate related policies will challenge the US lead in green technology. The unelected, unaccountable Elon Musk is causing chaos in government departments. When even toilet attendants in national parks are a target to be fired, let alone the threat to the existence of national parks themselves, how will the average voter feel? Walking away from vaccination policies is already contributing to a measles surge in Texas. The list goes on, and, increasingly, Democrat run states will simply absorb the role of federal government themselves.
The law of unintended consequences is also washing across the globe. In threatening Canada not only through tariffs but more broadly, it has partly led to the departure of Canada’s PM, Justin Trudeau, to be replaced by an even more determined opponent of Trump, Mark Carney, the former Bank of England governor. The Liberals are surging in the polls versus the mildly pro-Trump Conservatives who were a shoo-in in an Autumn election. Canada is now distinctly hostile to the US.
Over in Europe, countries are getting their act together on defence to support Ukraine with the wider aim of neutralising a disengaged US, which might even leave NATO. To be fair, peace is back on the US/Ukraine agenda, but it is very early days, and the US has to prove it can bully Russia, too. European powers have to be polite towards the US for now to buy time, but this might not last as the US remains an unreliable partner at best. For the UK, it smooths the path to greater European integration. Thank you, President Trump.
All this makes the US seemingly aligned with strongmen Presidents Xi and Putin, which might be what an out of control Trump administration wants. US opinion polls are, however, particularly hostile towards Russia. Combine this with a worsening economic backdrop and natural democratic allies preparing to walk away from the US, and the long-term impact for Americans could be disastrous.
Trump is surely at peak power, and his populist legacy may not last beyond him outside diehard MAGA supporters. How much damage is done and how quickly it is noticed will be key to his tenure along with Democrats getting their act together. Don’t hold your breath. It may all take a while even if populist self-destruction happens in the end.
I am not a Labour supporter, but I have always liked Starmer. Why?
First, and wisely, he doesn’t rely on charisma. Politics is not a game, and we are all tired of dishonest, charismatic personalities who are fundamentally incompetent, and that is only in the UK… Starmer is solid, serious, uncharismatic, and ideologically flexible. He held a big job successfully as Director of Public Prosecutions and, despite an uncertain start, now seems to be applying those skills to the role of PM.
After an uncertain start, Starmer seems to be finding his feet and that should be a relief to everyone…
Second, let’s explore that ideological flexibility. Life is too complex and too chaotic to assume a set ideology provides answers in all scenarios. Needs must. Starmer, only elected in 2015, is certainly centre-left but no idealogue. He supported Corbyn out of necessity whilst maintaining support for membership of the EU. He promptly ran for the leadership, promising to continue Corbyn’s policies before ditching them after victory. He suspended Corbyn from the Labour Party on the issue of anti-semitism. In office, he cut the winter fuel allowance, will tackle sickness benefits, and has slashed foreign aid to support an increased defence budget.
He is also ruthless. He fired Sue Gray, his chief of staff, for failing to get the politics right. He dismissed his Transport Secretary for misdemeanours he knew about when appointing her and failed to appoint his long-standing Shadow Cabinet colleague, Emily Thornberry, to any ministerial post for reasons unknown. Apparently, he doesn’t like the tittle tattle of ordinary politics and is not particularly clubbable. Good!
Starmer’s government has taken unpopular economic decisions, some of which are a mistake by sticking to past rash fiscal promises. But they were taken early in his administration. He is moving closer to the EU generally but cautiously and now takes the lead on Ukraine, treading a careful line between his allies and a rogue US presidency which makes the US in all but name a former ally. The latest act by Trump of suspending aid to Ukraine is, quite frankly, incredible and a waste of all the financial support the US previously provided.
He seems to be finding his feet, has four more years, and should make the most of this stability. In such an uncertain world with such little choice in domestic politics, we must hope Starmer, and his government succeed.
Germany has been losing its way. A weak, squabbling coalition of the SPD, Greens, and the FDP has been a disaster for the country. Growth for Europe’s largest economy has been stalling, and it is all at sea on Ukraine.
That is in addition to what we know in hindsight was the less than perfect Chancellorship of Angela Merkel. The charge sheet against her is growing. Too much immigration which has fuelled the rise of the AfD, giving up nuclear power, leaving it reliant on Russian gas until recently, and failing to invest in Germany’s infrastructure all happened under her watch. She was in power for too long.
The results on Sunday allow Germany a reset. The CDU/CSU bloc is almost certainly going to form the next government perhaps in a grand coalition with the SPD. Friedrich Merz will be the new Chancellor ushering in a welcome (and rare) moderate centre-right government. He will shake things up.
Merz brings a welcome change to German politics
But before that, let’s just deal with the rise of the far-right extremist AfD, supported by the increasingly loopy Elon Musk. They did very well with 20% of the vote and are not to be underestimated. But they did NOT win and will not form a government any more than Reform in the UK is going to do so in the UK. There is no room for complacency, but there is a ceiling to the support for these types of parties. The best way of countering them is for mainstream parties to deliver in government. Starmer, with his ‘flexible’ ideology, knows this only too well, and so, I suspect, does Merz.
So back to the new German government. It is early days but Merz is rightly giving up on Trump (not America) – indeed he has been undiplomatically rude, wants to strengthen Europe’s defence unlike his vacillating predecessor, Scholz, and will focus on growing the German economy whilst tightening up immigration. Just being decisive is a good start.
Trump may well be heading for a backlash in his treatment of Europe. He is at peak power and there is only one route from here and that is downwards. Transactional politics works both ways… A rejuvenated Germany led by the CDU/CSU, a reinvented, patriotic Labour Party in the UK and more determination from the likes of France, Italy and others, all spending more on defence, may just be the boost that Europe needs and long overdue.
Every cloud has a silver lining so thank you Donald Trump. But the next four years cannot come quickly enough…
Trump is awful. A liar and that is not a word to be used lightly. Yesterday, he gave a press conference accusing Ukraine of starting the war with Russia, that the US has given US$500 billion in aid to Ukraine when it is closer to US$100 billion in direct, mainly military aid which benefits many US industries. He also commented that Zelenskyy ‘s approval rating is 4% when it is 57% and parroted Putin’s propaganda online questioning the authenticity of Zelenskyy ‘s rule.
Listen to the brilliant podcast ‘The Rest is History’ on Chamberlain negotiating away the Sudetenland with Hitler without the Czechs present at the infamous Munich conference in 1938. The similarity with Trump/Putin/Ukraine is uncanny as America sits down to negotiate away Ukraine’s sovereignty with Russia. Neither Ukraine or Europe have been invited to participate.
What does Putin have on Trump except a psychological hold on Trump’s love of strong, violent anti-democratic leaders?
Zelenskyy knows who his friends are and they don’t currently reside in the White House…
This blog’s prediction that Trump wouldn’t be as bad as many critics feared is looking somewhat shaky currently.
Trump’s Ukraine comments come on top of Vice President JD Vance’s speech at a security conference, guess where, in Munich…, claiming the biggest threat to Europe came from within (lack of freedom of speech) rather than Putin. Try telling that to the relatives of murdered opponents of Putin in Russia or the suffering people of Ukraine.
Of course, Trump and Vance have a point in demanding that Europe stands up for itself versus Russia rather than the US always bailing it out. It is a policy articulated by many previous US presidents and wrongly ignored. No longer. Trump’s lasting legacy may be to unite Europe militarily, although it may take a while as they row about European boots on the ground to keep a future peace in Ukraine.
The US is now an amoral, possibly an immoral country politically. Everything is transactional. There is no sense the current Administration believes democratic values trump authoritarian rule. In fact, it is the reverse. Europe (ex the far-right) better learn to live without an ally across the Atlantic for the time being.
America voted for America First, not Putin, Xi, or any other quasi dictator first. Perhaps American voters do not care, but they will eventually find out the two aims are incompatible. Let’s hope it is not too late by then.
Trump has hit the ground running. You may not like what he is doing, but my, the speed and decisiveness of his actions is impressive. He only has four years, and he knows he needs to deliver fast as the attention span of voters increasingly diminishes. Democrats take note.
Meanwhile, trundling Britain makes slow or almost no progress on anything meaningful partly mired in a glut of public enquiries. Held to examine complex issues in depth their real purpose more often seems to be about kicking difficult decisions into the long grass. In no particular order, here are just a few examples:
Grenfell
Set up after the terrible fire in June 2017, it completed its review only in 2024. The full list of recommendations has not been implemented and some elements may never be. The future of Grenfell Tower (it is to be demolished) has only just been announced. Meanwhile, the Metropolitan Police are investigating possible criminal manslaughter and corporate manslaughter charges but, nearly eight years later, no action has actually been taken.
Enquiries go on and on and nothing seems to get done…
Phone hacking
This public enquiry was set up in July 2011 to examine press standards and, to be fair, reported in November 2012. But in 2018 Leveson (the Chair) accused ministers of breaking promises to phone hacking victims. A second report to consider the extent of improper conduct and governance failings by individual newspaper groups, how these were investigated by the police, and whether police officers received corrupt payments or inducements was never initiated.
Social care
This is perhaps the most important example of government incompetence (in terms of the number of people affected) as social care descends into chaos, blocking the ability of the NHS to function properly. After several false starts by previous governments and proposals sprung on the electorate by Theresa May in the 2017 General Election which directly led to her ‘defeat’, the current Labour government, after three decades, has just announced a third independent Commission into adult social care. It will not report until 2028. Need I say more.
Post Office Horizon IT
This enquiry was set up in September 2020. Public hearings have concluded, but there is now a period of what is known as Mawellisation of the report when anyone who is criticised in the report has a reasonable opportunity to respond. No end date has been set for the enquiry’s final conclusions.
Covid
The Covid enquiry was set up in June 2022. No end date has been set although the final public hearings are set for 2026. As a comparison, the Swedish Covid public enquiry was set up in 2020 with the final report published in 2022.
Infected blood
An inquiry into the infected blood scandal when over three thousand patients died unnecessarily from illnesses such as HIV and hepatitis was originally set up in 1985. Outrageously, only in 2022 did the then government announce interim compensation payments. Many of the victims had died. The final report was published in 2024, and full compensation has yet to be paid.
The list of enquiries goes on, and victims regularly and publicly voice their frustration at the slow progress. Findings and recommendations take years to implement, if ever. No wonder voters feel politicians care little about their plight and that no-one is truly held accountable (who was ever jailed for the irresponsible actions which caused the 2007/2008 financial crash and, regardless of Covid, over a decade of austerity?). It fuels the belief that the government doesn’t work in the ordinary person’s best interests.
Government needs to speed up and act fast if it is to avoid being subsumed by populism borne out of pure frustration. The above public enquiry examples are just a small but totemic cause of voter disillusionment.
Can you imagine Trump being held back by any of the above as he pursues his four year agenda apace?
Hopeless. For Kemi Badenoch, the clock is ticking. An indifferent performer so far, lacking charisma, she is compounding error after error. No policies yet, except for one; chasing Reform as they top an opinion poll in The Times. Seemingly in response, she has just announced ruling out permanent residence for migrants on benefits. The Tories will always be Reform-lite whatever their dog-whistle policies and yet it is a cul-de-sac they seem happy to run into.
A new Tory leader, already under pressure…
Centrist, moderate Tories should be really angry about the direction of their Party. Cameron called a Brexit vote to see off the threat from the Right. That failed. Johnson’s Brexit deal was a triumph of style over damaging substance. Let’s ignore Truss and Sunak (too depressing) and focus on Badenoch. She is, so far, simply failing to reset the Party, still obsessed by culture politics and immigration with the deeply unpleasant, newly minted anti-immigrant Robert Jenrick (her leadership opponent), snapping at her heels.
A former Cabinet Minister, a friend of mine, said the Tory Party had to move to the Right to defeat populist right-wing forces. Well, that went well, didn’t it? Reform is now topping the polls; the Tory Party is almost wholly an anti-immigration Brexit party now but that still isn’t enough. Languishing at 21% in the polls (third place), its positioning has been a disaster. One aspect of recent opinion polls has also been overlooked. The Tory Party has made zero progress in winning back LibDem voters, crucial for any electoral success.
I was watching a re-run of the Brian Walden interview with Steve Coogan (Walden) and Harriet Walter (Thatcher). Brilliant, and politics is all the poorer for audiences failing to engage with a long-form, incisive political interview. But what struck me, for all the anti-EU rhetoric in losing her Chancellor, Lawson, was Thatcher’s commitment to a single market. It remained undiminished, understanding that concept was in the best interests of Britain. She rarely got sidelined. Economic prosperity was everything. She must be turning in her grave now.
The Tories need to ignore Reform and re-build a credible party based on economic competence and aspiration. They need to argue for their own reset on Europe, particularly with the likelihood of a sympathetic centre-right government being elected in Germany. With Trump in situ, making some concessions for joining a customs union would add to the Tories’ credibility (outside their shrinking, increasingly right-wing membership base), but if not that, further involvement in European defence and cooperation is a no-brainer.
Except, the Tory Party has shown little brains for some time. It is why it is where it is with no prospect of changing anytime soon. It worries only about its Right flank. If I were Labour, Reform or LibDem, I would be in a very happy place right now, at least relatively.
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