This has been an excruciating two weeks for Tory sympathisers. They have watched agog as candidates ripped each other apart in the race to be their Party’s next leader, most noticeably in the TV debates.

And now, as the process wends its way to the judgement of Conservative Party members, there is a somewhat unedifying choice between the last two candidates standing: Rishi Sunak verus Liz Truss.

Hobson’s choice…?

The most qualified and able by far is Rishi Sunak. He rose to the job of Chancellor in the most challenging of circumstances and acquitted himself well. The problem he has is that in pursuing the perfectly legitimate objective of controlled budget deficits, he has increased taxes to a 70 year high which is not going down well with voters generally or Tory members in particular. He has attacked Truss, his final opponent, for her fantasy approach to economics. She has, in return, attacked him for these tax rises. Both have created much fodder for Labour which was painfully evident in PMQs this afternoon. Keir Starmer, its leader, had a field day.

The additional challenge Sunak has is that he is a rich Thatcherite (incredibly painted as ‘left-wing’ by Truss supporters) with a slightly questionable family tax history. I am just not sure this will play well in Red Wall seats and, again, provides much ammunition to those on the opposition benches.

Then to Liz Truss. She is widely considered awful by many of her colleagues, more than two-thirds of which didn’t vote for her. I have experienced the most diplomatic of senior Tories holding their heads in their hands when her name is mentioned. No credible record as a minister who, as a former Remainer, has styled herself as tough on the EU to reach the last two of this contest. She has advocated breaking international law over the Northern Ireland Protocol and relations with our largest trading partner would almost certainly deteriorate if she were to be elected. She has acquired some distinctly unpleasant right-wing supporters on her journey, is economically illiterate and would quickly lose credibility as PM. Oh dear.

The person eliminated today is Penny Mordaunt. She ran a weak campaign with little substance, but one senses she would have picked a solid team behind her. A moderate Brexiteer and social liberal, depressingly savaged by the Daily Mail, she would have provided a better choice against Sunak.

Well, the Tory Party is where it is. Presenting a Hobson’s choice to many, three things strike me as obvious; it has to be Sunak as leader (he has a good chance despite Tory members favouring Truss today); the election is surely not going to be held until 2024 in the hope that voters forget the happenings of this summer and Labour’s chances of winning the next election have improved immeasurably.

Actually, not much has changed. Sunak (101 votes, increase of 13) leads, followed by Mordaunt (83 votes, increase of 16). Truss third (64 votes, increase of 14) which must be a little disappointing. Kemi Badenoch fourth (49 votes, increase of 9) has done well but there may be some skullduggery here. Gove is supporting her! Tugendhat fourth (32 votes, decrease of 5) which is certainly disappointing. Finally, a sigh of relief all round, Suella Braverman has been eliminated (27 votes, decrease of 5).

The Famous Five…

No clear result in sight as we move to the television debates, beginning Friday (probably four of them), but the momentum today still resides with Mordaunt who is scoring well amongst Tory members. Mordaunt is, as yet, untested but you can tell she is perceived as a threat. The attacks on her are rising.

Sunak toured the studios today and sounded a little slick and evasive. Justin Webb on the Today programme was having none of it and roughed him up somewhat. Rumours that Gavin Williamson is lending the ex-Chancellor’s campaign his dark arts also doesn’t help. You have to ask what is Williamson for in politics? Sunak will have to up his game.

As for the others, Truss is still in the race. Badenoch and Tugendhat looking for profile and promotions in the next Cabinet.

Starmer et al should be putting the work in to maximise the damage being done to the Tories’ reputation from this leadership contest otherwise a crucial opportunity will be lost. Meanwhile, the poor voting public look on with a mixture of disgust, boredom, indifference but just… just occasionally… fascination.

We will all know who the last two candidates are by next Thursday. Phew!

So still all to play for but Penny Mordaunt is the one to beat and presents the trickiest challenge for Keir Starmer.

Jeremy Hunt (18 votes) and Sajid Javid (eliminated earlier) have paid the price for dullness. Nadim Zahawi (25 votes) has paid the price for missteps in becoming Chancellor and then calling for Johnson to stand down. His tax arrangements also look curious, and the Tories don’t want to go there. They have all gone. You need to get 30 votes to reach tomorrow’s next round of voting.

All change at the top…

On the Right of a Party which has already drifted further to the right, Truss (50 votes) did less well than expected and it is more difficult today to see her in the last two to be voted on by the membership. Incredibly the controversial Suella Braverman (32 votes) is still just in the race, but her time must be up.

On the Left, Tom Tugendhat (37 votes) did respectably but his time looks to be up too. He deserves a key post in the next Cabinet.

Kemi Badenoch (40 votes) performed strongly. What she represents is uncertain, but her time will come again.

That leaves Rishi Sunak (88 votes). He leads but not by enough. Would voters warm to a rich, avowed Thatcherite after years of austerity and a cost-of-living crisis? Also, with tax issues. Umm… I think he would be Starmer’s choice…He also has many enemies in the Johnson camp.

So, today, it seems like Sunak versus Mordaunt, incredibly with the momentum behind Mordaunt. Read this quickly. It could all change tomorrow and this snap analysis only has a shelf life of 24 hours!

Oh dear… Two leadership candidates have already declared; Suella Braverman, the appalling Attorney General, who managed to announce her intentions but not resign from Cabinet and Steve Baker, the hard right backbench MP, who pledged unity whilst having actively plunged the knife into the last three leaders. It almost makes you nostalgic for Boris Johnson. Well, not quite.

Goodbye Boris Johnson…

What the last few days have shown us is how unfit the Tories currently are to hold office. Over 50 resignations from government, yet only four from the Cabinet to oust Johnson. We have had months of Johnson’s colleagues repeating untruths, chaotic policy making, the threatened breaking of international law, the resignation of ethics advisers. Taxes, at record levels, have gone up and then down a little, institutions have been trashed, we are still fighting Brexit. The list goes on.

What is clear is that many in Johnson’s Cabinet should not be in a future one whoever is the next leader. Preferably Johnson’s successor should not be tainted by having served under him. There is much talent elsewhere in the Party that should be tapped.

It may well be too late for a Party too long in office and the public will not forget easily the chaos of the last few weeks. But here are a few tips for sorting it out:

• Remove all underperforming cabinet ministers and those who could not see the amorality of Johnson’s reign
• Ban backbench WhatsApp pressure groups for the sake of unity which have undermined leaders since Cameron
• Put Brexit behind us and bring back into the fold those who left the Party either voluntarily or involuntarily on this issue
• Negotiate a settlement with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol and immigration and outline a new constructive relationship with our largest trading partner
• Cancel the Rwanda deal
• Sort out tax policy with a medium (not short-term) plan to reduce taxes
• Clarify infrastructure investment plans particularly in relation to transport and green energy
• Basically, get back to policy making with a longer term focus and keep ministers in their jobs for as long as possible. Rotating ministerial positions (ex the last few days!) do not make good government
• Put ethical standards at the heart of the new administration
• Move the Tory Party back to the centre ground generally both in terms of policy but also choice of language

The divisive, discredited Johnson cannot be a caretaker Prime Minister whilst waiting for a new leader if the Tory Party wants to minimise the damage done to its reputation. We have a Deputy Prime Minister who will do for now. The poetic justice of all this is that if Johnson goes today, his term of office will be 28 days shorter than that of Theresa May’s. Who can blame her if she continues to vote in leadership elections wearing a ballgown…

It has been a long time coming, but finally Cabinet ministers have walked. They simply cannot continue defending the lies, yes lies, coming out of Downing Street. The consequences of Johnson’s amorality are laid bare.

Gaps appearing around the Cabinet table…

The contents of the resignation letters from Sajid Javid, Health Secretary, and Rishi Sunak, Chancellor, are extraordinary, even by the standards of this government:

Rishi Sunak: ‘…the public rightly expect government to be conducted properly, competently and seriously… that is why I am resigning’

Sajid Javid: ‘The vote of confidence was a moment for humility, grip and new direction… this situation will not change under your leadership and you have therefore lost my confidence too.’

Further junior ministerial resignations were happening as this commentary was being written this morning. In fact they have turned into such a torrent the blog is being updated for unfolding events. Extraordinary. This government is imploding before our eyes whilst the country faces an economic crisis and a war in Ukraine. It can’t carry on like this and the public will rightly conclude Johnson’s time is up.

So, what happens next? Remaining Cabinet members, many second-rate, will hold on, increasingly discredited but knowing they have their job only due to Johnson. It will not be enough. Johnson will never resign willingly but the Party is rapidly moving collectively to oust him. Rumours abound that delegations of ‘men in grey suits’ are seeing Johnson this afternoon. No longer a resignation by the Autumn but a likelihood of one this week, perhaps today. Johnson may not even last to attend the Liaison Committee scheduled for 3pm. Has ever a premiership collapsed so quickly? Elections to the 1922 Committee this month which sets the Tories’ leadership rules will be organising a leadership election, not changing the rules for another confidence vote. The findings of the Privileges Committee opining on whether Johnson misled Parliament, a resigning offence, will now seem somewhat ‘after the event’ by the Autumn.

It is easy to say ‘I told you so’ but many people, often good, moderate Tories, consistently warned of the dangers of a Johnson premiership, and their predictions have comprehensively come true.

As for the future of the Tory Party, likely leadership candidates are Tom Tugendhat, Liz Truss, Nadim Zahawi, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Penny Mordant and possibly Ben Wallace and Rishi Sunak, although the latter may well choose to leave politics. Incredibly, the Brexit obsessed Tory Party is unlikely to elect a Remainer so that possibly rules out Tom Tugendhat and Jeremy Hunt on this issue alone. Liz Truss is hugely unpopular with her colleagues and Sajid Javid doesn’t set hearts racing. The momentum is currently with Ben Wallace and particularly Nadim Zahawi but many things can change and change quickly over the coming days and weeks.

Only Keir Starmer’s mediocrity stands between the Tories and electoral annihilation. What a fall from grace for a Party that won an 80 seat majority just three years ago. It is down to one man’s well trailed flaws which have been brutally exposed once in office.

The by-election defeats were ‘priced-in’ we were told. Almost everything seems to be nowadays. The resignation of the Tory Party Chairman, Oliver Dowden, this morning was not. And this latter event is the most dangerous for Johnson, even as the scale of defeats in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton sink in.

Even more dangerous than the by-election results for Johnson is the resignation of the Tory Party Chairman

The Tories should have moved earlier on Johnson and are now paying the price for their inaction. When 41% of Tory MPs voted against Johnson’s leadership a couple of weeks ago, senior figures should have told him to go. The problem is ‘the men in grey suits’ don’t really exist anymore. Sometimes mediocre, sycophantic cabinet ministers who rely solely on Johnson’s patronage, haven’t got the guts. Self-interest has always been a key driver of senior politicians but not the only one as it seems to be now. Perhaps Oliver Dowden has broken that spell.

Voters’ views of Johnson are now baked in after a catalogue of misjudgments, and the Tories cannot win with him as leader. They recognised his talents but also knew his flaws and that these would do for him in the end. That point was reached some while a go. The problem is that Johnson’s leadership is infecting the Tories as a whole and opinions about them and their failure to remove him are also becoming baked in. A pincer movement is underway; Labour in the North, LibDems in the South. Things look bleak for the government today.

Still fighting Brexit, chaos over the cost-of-living crisis with incoherent, often regressive tax policies worthy of a blog on their own and U-turns galore, this Johnson led government is in a mess. Add in the ugly policy of expelling illegal immigrants to Rwanda, threatening to break international law over the Northern Ireland Protocol and the resignation of the Prime Minister’s ethics advisers and the scene has been set to upset different groups of voters everywhere.

There is a battle needed for the soul of the Tory Party and this can probably only be undertaken in opposition. In the meantime, there are plenty of successors to the current incumbent. How much is left for them to take over and any chance of rebuilding the Tory Party to minimise its shrinkage at the next General Election is all about acting now. It all feels a bit like Groundhog Day.

It was a pleasure attending a reception this week celebrating the Prison Reform Trust’s 40th anniversary. For those who don’t know about this organisation, it was set up in 1981 to inform and influence public debate on prison conditions and the treatment of prisoners, amidst concerns about a projected prison population of 48,000 by 1984.

A cause worth supporting

It was apparently only meant to be a temporary enterprise to stop the growth in prison numbers and improve prison conditions. Incredibly, with the prison population in England and Wales now exceeding 82,000 and projected to rise to 86,400 by 2023, the charity remains as important to civic society today as it was then.

It has three clear objectives:

• reducing unnecessary imprisonment and promoting community solutions to crime;
• improving treatment and conditions for prisoners and their families;
• and promoting equality and human rights in the justice system.

There are no votes in prisons and most of the public underestimate the severity of sentencing practices. We have the highest imprisonment rate in Europe and yet there is no link between the prison population and levels of crime according to the National Audit Office. Sentences of over 10 years have increased by 250% since 2008. Over 28,000 people alone are held in custody before a trial.

Other statistics are also depressing; over 60% of offenders are sent to prison at great cost for non-violent offences, 40% for less than 6 months despite the fact that such sentences (rather than community sentences) are particularly ineffective for persistent offenders and people with mental health problems. This touches on who we jail. Three in ten offenders have learning disabilities, one in three have serious drug addiction issues. 52% of people surveyed by inspectors in 2020/21 reported mental health problems but only 22% said it was easy to see a mental health worker.

Finally, the state of prisons; 29% of prisons were rated of concern or serious concern by HM Prisons and Probation Service. Two-thirds of prisons are over-crowded and there are 10% fewer prison staff than there were in 2010. More than 20% of prison deaths were due to self-inflicted injuries, six times higher than in the general population. There were 55,000 reported incidents of self-harm in 2020 alone.

Interestingly, the Prison Reform Trust is not only supported by so-called liberals but also by many moderate Tories such as Douglas Hurd, Edward Garnier and David Gauke. And its Chair is James Timpson, brother of a Tory MP, Edward Timpson, who employs many ex-offenders across his family-owned retail chain of 1500 shops. He has rightly earned his OBE!

It is an invaluable organisation, shining a light on an area of society easy to ignore. Our civilisation should be partly judged by how we treat offenders for this reason alone. And it is common sense to focus on solutions to crime which are cost effective both in terms of avoiding incarceration in the first place and reducing re-offending.

Public discourse on our justice system needs to improve because the system is in a mess. Fat chance with populism in vogue in so many aspects of public life. That is why it is so easy to support this charity which shines a light on hidden areas of concern such as the state and use of our prisons.

It is not operation ‘Save Big Dog’, it is operation ‘Save the Tory Party’. Johnson survived yesterday’s vote but only just and the damage has been done as it was for Thatcher, Major and May before him. He should go and go quickly so the Tory Party can rebuild itself free from the drama, chaos and partisanship of his premiership although it may be too late for the next election.

Johnson’s luck has run out…

What has struck this blog about support for Johnson amongst his fellow MPs was how transactional it always was, even in Johnson’s heyday. Few actually liked or trusted him but if he could see off Labour and get Brexit done, that was enough. The depressing aspect of this view was how much it underestimated the damage Johnson could do whilst being PM and, actually, how inaccurate this analysis was in the first place.

With confidence, almost any Tory leader could have seen off Corbyn second time around, perhaps with a smaller majority, and getting Brexit done by breezily incorporating the Northern Ireland Protocol regardless of previous commitments not to and then attempting to renege on it has been a disaster.

There is also Johnson’s broader legacy. Pushing ‘partygate’ partly to one side, Johnson has never considered the consequences of his actions because it has always been about Johnson, not the Tory Party or, more importantly, the country. Jesse Norman MP, in yesterday’s letter to his constituents, withdrawing his support for Johnson’s leadership, gave his reasons brutally; a ‘culture of casual law-breaking’, ‘putting the Union gravely at risk’, keep changing the subject ‘to create political and cultural dividing lines mainly for your advantage, at a time when the economy is struggling, inflation is soaring, and growth is anaemic at best’. Finally, a Rwanda policy ‘ugly, likely to be counterproductive and of doubtful legality’.

This deeply ‘unTory’ of Prime Ministers has waged wars against the establishment, crossed lines on matters of fundamental morality and sought cultural splits, aided by some distinctly dubious No.10 advisers, that are pointlessly divisive and wholly unacceptable to moderate voters. Combine these with basic incompetence in day to day governing with no guiding philosophy and it has all become a toxic mix.

It is time for the Tory Party to reinvent itself with a new leader and, in doing so, free itself from the obsession with Brexit, that one doubts Johnson ever really believed in. It is time for a more coherent economic policy, it is time to think longer-term and more strategically and raise the basic standards of government.

One reads that any future leadership battle will be a re-run of Brexit. Why is this? If it about this one issue, then the Tory Party should step aside not just Johnson. A new Tory leader should form a government based on core Tory values discussed in earlier blogs, seeking a level of consensus which has led to it being the most successful political party in democratic history. There would be nothing wrong with a Remain voting new leader (remember Major, Cameron, May?) who knowing Brexit was done sought to build bridges with Europe, helping deal with issues such as illegal immigration for example, without picking populist fights for short-term tactical advantage.

There is a war in Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis, a broad-based threat to the Union and some real long-term, deep seated economic concerns. Many in the Tory Party could manage these challenges shrewdly and, crucially, with more integrity than the current incumbent.

Johnson’s authority has been shredded by this far worse than expected vote. It is a lame duck administration at the mercy of its backbenchers and providing an open goal for the opposition benches. It is time for a change of leader and quickly if the Tories are even to begin to recover in time for the next General Election.

The famous epithet for Johnson proved true. The ‘greased piglet’ escaped the immediate fall-out from the Sue Gray report last week and appeared to be relatively home and dry, his premiership bolstered, some would say, with a cynically timed £15 billion hand-out to deal with the impact of soaring energy prices.

Things are just not getting easier for Johnson…

And yet, this week, it doesn’t feel like that. Without raking over the gory details of the Gray report, the sheer scale of rule breaking and ‘frat-boy’ culture in No.10 continues to reverberate and that is before rumours of more parties, yet to be investigated. Added to this is Johnson’s hubris. Very few believe he is genuinely sorry for what happened on his watch and news that Johnson has watered down the ministerial code including its introductory wording, possibly in case he is found guilty of breaking it is hardly reassuring.

27 Tory MPs have now called publicly for Johnson’s resignation with this list growing over the weekend but, more importantly, there are many others who express deep discomfort about his behaviour privately. This blog is aware of a number of MPs who don’t appear anywhere near the media’s radar wanting Johnson to go, appalled by the Gray report’s findings. As they return to their constituencies this week for a Jubilee break, they are unlikely to be reassured by what they hear from activists and voters more generally. A snap opinion poll showed 59% of the electorate want Johnson to go including 27% of Tory voters. Three quarters of voters think Johnson knowingly lied to parliament. Johnson and his supporters’ defence has also hardly helped matters in emphasising the importance of ‘morale boosting’ leaving drinks as a justification for parties. Alicia Kearns, Tory MP for Rutland and Melton, summed up a common private refrain commenting about ‘the shameful lengths some will pursue to preserve this premiership’.

Then there is the general positioning of the Tory Party. There is an increasing chorus, even from sympathetic commentators, that no-one knows what it stands for under Johnson’s leadership. Certainly not competence; certainly not lower taxes and preservation of the institutions of state; certainly not abiding by international agreements and attempting to strengthen the economy by building a positive post-Brexit relationship with Europe. And even the most die-hard of Tories are uneasy about populist measures such as deporting illegal immigrants to Rwanda, a state with a distinctly dubious human rights record. This blog was recently told a deal with France was certainly in the offing to help solve the immigration crisis until deteriorating relationships with the EU and France in particular, fuelled by rows over the Northern Ireland Protocol, put an end to discussions. How frustrating that politics in the UK has reached this point.

Although it has to be said that a General Election defeat is by no means a certainty, the future does not look rosy for the Tories under Johnson. An increasing proportion of voters seem to have made up their mind about the Prime Minister and not in a favourable way. Any benefit from the recent largesse to mitigate the cost-of-living crisis is likely to be short-lived and has confused core Tories who were told just weeks ago that it was ‘unTory’ to levy a windfall tax on energy companies.

Then there are two uncomfortable by-elections to navigate and an enquiry by the Commons Privileges Committee into Johnson’s statements to parliament on parties in Downing Street.

The heat on No. 10 may intensify over the Summer and not in a good way. For Johnson, the damage has probably been done. For the Tory Party as a whole, the next few months may prove that the fall-out from its leader’s character and actions has swept it up too.

Sometimes you think the Tories have it all; a Prime Minister with more than nine lives, an electorate distracted by the tragic Ukraine war, a divided opposition and a mediocre leader of the Labour Party. It is almost too much to bear for anyone unsympathetic to their cause.

All this came together in the local elections. Despite losing a bucket full of council seats, a poor showing from Labour in the North, success for the LibDems in the South being warily written off as the usual Tory protest vote, ‘beergate’ for Starmer taking attention off ‘partygate’ for Johnson, all led to a sigh of relief from the Tories and Johnson keeping his job.

And yet…. this Government is set on making things worse for itself.

A tough summer ahead for the Government…

The cost-of-living crisis is a real disaster for many economically challenged voters. Inflation to hit 10% with unavoidable energy prices skyrocketing is causing much pain. A combination of Brexit, Covid generally but particularly in China, and war in Ukraine, is causing mayhem. But the government seems strangely becalmed. Delaying further financial relief for the hard pressed, probably until the Autumn, only now dusting off a potential windfall tax on the obscenely profitable major energy companies but blocking it in parliament on Tuesday, will lead to weeks of bad headlines. Current inaction will hit the Tories’ support particularly in the North and promised minor tax cuts won’t as they say, ‘cut it’. There is plenty of material for a divided opposition and a pedestrian Starmer to work with and one senses a real chance that the Red Wall will rise again.

Then, let’s move to the South. The Tories are also set on making the Tory protest vote for LibDems last until the next General Election. The fallout from Brexit continues and an aggressive approach to unwinding the Northern Ireland Protocol this Government negotiated certainly treads on the sensitivities of moderate Tory voters. A populist stance generally from Johnson et al as they seek out culture wars to fight is also a major source of irritation. The LibDems are second to the Tories in 91 seats and up to 30 of them mainly in the South look highly winnable. If the LibDems win the Tiverton & Honiton by-election in June, admittedly, even for this run of Tory scandals, in odd circumstances, then all bets are off.

Finally, there is Johnson. Just because he has escaped from ‘partygate’ doesn’t mean he is any longer an asset. He simply cannot govern competently, displays massive hubris in private and is an accident waiting to happen. A weak Cabinet, divided backbenches and side-lined talent such as Jeremy Hunt contribute to a sense of arrogance but also drift in a Party which has been too long in government.

Who knows? The Tories still look a reasonable bet to win the next General Election. Misreading voters, both North and South, however, means the odds gradually keep getting longer.

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