Only today’s Tory Party could consider Rishi Sunak ‘left-wing’. Apparently, soft on immigration, high taxes, and culture wars, this Thatcherite, pro-Brexit PM is seen as betraying the Tory cause by many right-wing grass-roots members and some former and current cabinet ministers.

Ludicrous.

The Tory Party has historically been so successful because it was always ideologically flexible. It supported established institutions and positioned itself as mildly socially conservative but not always (Cameron/gay marriage). In aiming for a smaller state and lower taxes, it was consistent in putting lowering deficits first, knowing nothing should get in the way of a well-run, slightly redistributive economy when finances allowed. Conservatives were always about ‘the economy stupid’.

Well, not now. Brexit, a failed attempt at immigration controls damaging growth in the process, a brief period of kamikaze tax cuts adding to a soaring deficit, pushing up already rising interest rates, have together been economically ruinous.  Add a good dose of confected culture wars and attacks on the judiciary and sovereignty of Parliament and Tory right-wing recklessness is complete. Thatcher would never have stood for it, cue Sunak.

Sunak has come in to restore economic competence and competence more generally, getting some of that famed ideological flexibility back into the Tory system.

It will last only until the next General Election.

The post-election positioning is beginning now. The formation of the Conservative Democratic Organisation, which held its first conference recently demanding more say for members (code for bring back Johnson), will probably be influential post an election. And more member involvement nearly always signals a further drift to the right. Then, we have had manifestos from leading Tories outlined at a right-wing, National Conservatism conference last week, not least by the Home Secretary, Suella Braverman. She is clearly positioning herself as the next leader, blatantly criticising cabinet colleagues on immigration. She has no sense of loyalty or public service, and we await her second ‘on a matter of principle’ resignation if her speeding fine doesn’t get her first…

Last, but not least, there is some evidence according to Anthony Seldon’s book on Johnson, (a highly readable insight into the chaos of Johnson’s premiership) that selection to join the parliamentary candidates’ list has favoured pro-Brexit, culture war warriors. That would drive the next diminished MP in-take further to the right if this was the case.

The Party’s Right is therefore flexing its muscles and one nation Tories remain on the side-lines. As ever, they are too soft, too unfocused. They simply hand-wring and hope for the best.

All the indications are that after a heavy election defeat, Sunak will step down, and the Tories will march rightwards. If this happens, the next 10 years spell disaster for the Conservative Party but also excitement for those willing to fill an increasingly vacated centre-right ground in British politics.

The analysis has been done, and there are no silver linings in very dark clouds for the Conservative Party, except perhaps for the Coronation dominating headlines. A loss of over 1000 council seats, surpassing even the gloomiest of expectations, was bad enough, but it was the distribution of votes that should really set alarm bells ringing.

No silver linings for the Conservative Party…

There is now a firm anti-Tory alliance in place, ruthlessly ejecting Tories wherever they reside. The Liberal Democrats in the South, Labour in the North, with the break between the Brexit voting public and the Conservative Party clearly evident. Add a deeply unhelpful sprinkling of Green Party successes, and the rout was complete. For those saying there is a route back from this for the Tories, they should remember these results exclude London and Scotland where Labour is resurgent.

So, why, under the highly competent Sunak, have the Conservatives not steadied their ship electorally? Quite simply, it is down to two factors. The Tories’ often lamentable record in office and increasing noise from their right-wing.

Excessive austerity contributing to a Brexit that has failed to deliver is part of the backdrop. Add the leadership disarray courtesy of Johnson and Truss, then record taxes, failing public services, and the seeming abandonment of tangible levelling up initiatives, and the sorry picture is complete. The refrain that we now live in a country where nothing works is lethal for the Tories’ prospects.

And yet, their response? Many in the Conservative Party think a lurch to the Right is required. A new organisation, the Conservative Democratic Organisation, led by the ludicrous, failed ex UKIP and Tory MEP, David Campbell Bannerman, calls for more Party democracy, the ousting of Sunak and the re-coronation of Johnson. An international conference in London involving right-wing politicians, including Suella Braverman, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Lord David Frost, spells further trouble. As if, in the face of failing public services, a call today for a low tax economy (a laudable aim perhaps in the long-term) will win over red-wall voters? And then, in a bid to fan cultural war flames, you have the likes of Tory Vice-Chair, Lee Anderson, whose anti-woke utterings are guaranteed to drive moderate Tory voters into the arms of the LibDems.

As the wise, moderate, ex-Tory MP David Gauke has commentated, a hard right, low-tax, socially conservative party makes sense in a system of proportional representation, probably guaranteed a fairly consistent 25-30% share of votes. But not in a first past-the-post system.

The Tories seem lost and forces are building to remove them at any cost. In Opposition, the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party will take place and the runes do not look good. Meanwhile, Sunak has to keep the show on the road. All Tories, right, left and centre, who once remembered the importance of loyalty, should give him their backing if, for nothing else, to minimise the scale of defeat in 2024.

At one level, it is incredibly frustrating. How does the world’s only superpower with a population of 330 million present a choice of Biden versus Trump for a second time? They will have a combined age of 158 at the next presidential election.

Of course, events may intervene to change the players. Biden will be 81 and has a less than robust medical history. He looks and sounds frail although this may be deceptive. His stutter accounts for a good amount of his verbal wobbles. As for Trump, he has many potential legal battles ahead, all more serious than the Stormy Daniels one. My bet is that he also has more health issues than publicly acknowledged.

Still, as Biden declares his 2024 candidacy, and Trump currently leads the Republican nominee pack (but don’t count out DeSantis…), it looks like a re-run battle for the soul of America.

If it has to be Biden as the Democrat’s nominee, it has to be Biden for President…

What is at stake?

• Ukraine. Biden will support their war with Russia to the end. Trump, Putin’s friend, will not. Neither will Trump defend NATO’s role
• Democracy. Republicans have introduced over 150 restrictive election bills at State level and another 27 election interference bills increasing partisan involvement in electoral outcomes. A Trump victory would boost attempts to limit mail-in voting, strengthen voter ID laws at the expense of minorities, shorten early voting and eliminate same-day voter registration. One only has to look at the Fox News versus Dominion lawsuit, which led to Fox paying $800 million in damages for knowingly misleading viewers on the integrity of the last presidential vote, to understand the fragility of democracy in the US
• Broader civil rights. Biden has introduced laws to protect same-sex marriage in the face of an increasingly right-wing, politicised Supreme Court. He has introduced laws to protect access to reproductive health care and also issued an Executive Order to protect access to abortion care after the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade. All these initiatives are highly vulnerable to a Trump victory
• Climate. Biden introduced the largest ever federal climate plan leading to a huge growth in green technology innovation. Over 1 billion tons of greenhouse gases will consequently be removed from the atmosphere by 2030 setting the globe well on its way to reaching emissions targets. This would almost certainly be reversed under Trump

The list goes on. Nobody would say Biden is remotely perfect and one could argue his solutions to many problems too often involve expanding the State at federal level. But, my, the alternative would be a disaster.

If it has to be Biden as the Democrat’s nominee, it has to be Biden for President. Never Trump or any of his extremist cohorts.

Sat recuperating from a recent leg injury, dreading a quiet news day on a Friday despite much daytime snoozing, and up pops the Deputy PM’s resignation.

Oh dear. Sunak has made a reasonable fist of being PM so far, even closing the polling gap with Labour. And now this.

The problem for Sunak, of course, is that he has to take responsibility for all the Tories’ 13 years in power, and he can’t escape his party’s past, particularly when it incoporates five often chaotic leaders.

Sunak has the makings of being a highly competent PM long-term, but got the job too late. Rebuilding international relations, a new NI protocol with the EU, and mostly sensible economic policies are all pluses. But set against these are clumsily managed public sector strikes with deep rooted causes, an obsession with ‘small boats’ driven by the Right, an NHS/social care crisis, depleted local government services, and the behaviour of several of his colleagues generally.

Despite a commitment to higher standards in public life, it is this last issue that is causing crucial damage right now. Raab is his third cabinet departure, and Sunak is starting to look careless. At the very least, the trade-offs Sunak made to become PM seem more and more costly, and he still has the grim Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, at his side.

The baggage is heavy. Can we honestly say we feel better after over a decade of Tory rule? No, and that is what will do for the government in the end.

This blog is increasingly critical of Labour. Few believe a Labour government will be much better, not knowing what they stand for. What are their guiding principles? What are their core policies? Some of their potential ministers are already starting to grate.

But with today’s events, it again matters less and less. Sunak can’t outrun a tsunami. It is time for a change, and voters know it.

Day 8, and I am still in Lancaster Hospital, having had my tendons sown back on to my left knee. A simple story of my lovely (less lovely now!), boistrous black labrador pulling me over on a steep slope.

I always felt avoiding the NHS at a bank holiday and in advance of a doctors’ strike was a sensible thing to do. It seems you don’t always have a choice…

So, what are my observations of the NHS at first-hand?

First, the staff here are lovely. Three cheers for Ward 37! They really care, and whilst I am sure some NHS staff do just the basics, not here.

Second, morale seems low with a disappointing level of confidence in the management of the Trust or NHS generally. Poor communication, endless management initiatives, and a lack of joined up practices or budgets undermine their capabilities to do the best job.

A small example of poor organisation. I got admitted Good Friday night, waiting only 3 hours for a bed. Nil by mouth for an operation that never happened, despite available surgeons, as no specialist radiographers on call over the Easter break. A second nil by mouth and still no relevant radiographers until Tuesday. Then, a third, and I was finally operated on on Thursday.

During the process, I asked whether there were radiographers elsewhere on call but out of the question. Budgets and records are ring-fenced by Trust, so there was no flexibility there. I asked to go home and come back to avoid bed blocking, but if I did I would leave the ‘system’ and be admitted as an out-patient in 2-3 weeks time despite the severity of the injury. The matron and surgeon strongly advised me to stay put.

To make things more difficult, when I am discharged tomorrow and slowly make my way to London, I have to take my records in paper form with me to UCL’s A and E department to get the required crucial follow up treatment. There are no transferable online records here.

My general ward is full of the elderly, many with dementia. It is sad to see, and the pressures on this basis are only going to rise. Lack of care at home or in homes is a clear factor. It is piling on the pressure. Many lament the demise of halfway house cottage hospitals, which were so beneficial for helping the elderly recuperate, and I simply do not understand why social care, not small boats, is the government’s top priority.

All against the backdrop of A and Es filling up partly due to lack of GP access.

I have seen at least some of the best (people) but often the worst (structural) of the NHS on view. Money, of course, is a factor, but so is a bloated NHS managerial class, siloed organisation and politicians who seem unable to challenge and prioritise a crucial yet failing public service.

As America’s 45th president appeared in a New York court for allegedly making illegal hush money payments to a porn star and others, breaking campaign finance laws in the process, it is worth remembering that in a functioning democracy, nobody is above the law, even Donald Trump.

Time for Trump to be held to account…

At a lunch party in the US last week, I suggested America feels like the 4th century AD Roman Empire… in decline. Nobody disagreed, even a couple of Republicans. Of course, it will remain the world’s premier superpower for decades, possibly centuries due to its military capabilities, but the increasingly polarised political discourse is fracturing society and undermining the ability of the US to govern itself.

The Democrats are not without blame, with splits between moderates and the hard left, but responsibility for this decline relies firmly with Trump and the supine GOP. Shame on them.

Trump is a known liar, without morals who lauds autocrats around the world, including Putin. How the GOP allowed him to take over their party, with his conspiracy theories, extreme language, contempt for the law, and refusal to accept his election defeat, is one for the history books.

But the consequences are stark. Increasingly extreme political debate is becoming a democratic threat.

Evidence of this is everywhere in opinion polls. A third of Americans do not believe Biden won his presidential election legitimately. One in five think political violence is justified on occasion. A third of voters would prefer autocratic rule over a weak, democratically elected leader. Two-thirds think US democracy is in crisis. Democracy is overwhelmingly the preferred form of governing but the headwinds opposing it are strong.

So, the solution? The GOP and MAGA crowd need to unite with the Democrats to remind the public it was democracy that made America great in the first place. Campaign finance laws need to be revised to cap election spending. State laws that undermine election officials and dissuade minority voters from participating in elections need to be withdrawn. Term limits need to apply to an increasingly politicised Supreme Court.

Umm… a very tall order. The crisis in American democracy is not going away anytime soon…

Happy Easter!

All of us agree, I am sure, that illegal immigration should be sharply curbed. The cruel trafficking of often vulnerable people to the UK’s shores via small boats and lorries is heart-breaking. It is a scourge of modern life and an issue for all of Europe.

Immigration may not be the vote winner Tories think it is…

However, even if one doubts the legitimacy of some asylum seekers, it is another issue to use a tone of language and introduce policies that, even tangentially, encourage racism. Our lovely Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, is certainly guilty of that. Using phrases over recent months such as ‘an invasion on our southern coast’ and ‘waves of illegal immigrants breaching our border’ supported by a ludicrous figure of 100 million is inflammatory to say the least.

The picture of Braverman laughing in Rwanda is also chilling. Exporting illegal immigrants to a country with a dubious human rights record is an ugly policy, and no government minister should be pleased with it, even if they think such measures are a necessity. Should the courts allow such flights, the policy hardly seems to make much of a difference either, with a current capacity of 200.

Housing illegal immigrants in barracks and on boats is another example of dog whistle politics, attempting to appease Red Wall voters and the hard right generally, two groups that, in reality, have little in common. Add to that, nimbies who live near barracks talking of their fears of potentially dangerous people being housed nearby and it all feels deeply uncomfortable for a humane country. Government rhetoric is partly the reason for it.

Under Sunak, we are now finally pursuing a policy of cooperation with the EU which, of course, particularly in relation to France, is the only solution to sorting illegal immigration in the longer-term. Theresa May knew this years ago.

In the meantime, if the Tories keep pursuing a ‘nasty party’ approach to the issue of ‘small boats’, it may well rebound on them. Labour’s opinion poll lead is still very wide, and they must be clear favourites at the next election. Even voters who dislike immigration generally might find it within themselves to swerve away from the Tories’ approach and focus on other issues. If, for nothing else, to protect their conscience.

This week, as I sit in New York, the US and UK seem mirror images of each other politically with regard to the treatment of their former leaders.

Over here, rumours abound that Donald Trump is about to be arrested over hush money payments to the porn star, Stormy Daniels. Apparently, he wants to be dragged to court in handcuffs to galvanise his fan base. Pink fluffy ones, I guess… You couldn’t write the script. News channels are full of it, but surely the most ardent Trump supporters must be getting tired of the soap opera. His rival, DeSantis, is playing it brilliantly, sort of highlighting bias against Trump whilst citing he can’t speak about the details due to inexperience of paying hush money to porn stars…Trump is furious!

Of course, Trump faces much more serious legal challenges, not least from the State of Georgia for allegedly trying to illegally influence the 2020 presidential vote. His opponents wish this was the first confirmed court case since sleeping with prostitutes and paying them off is sort of priced in with Trump.

Then, over to the UK, where Boris Johnson testified in front of the Commons’ Privileges Committee for allegedly misleading Parliament on parties in Downing Street during the Covid pandemic when the rest of us were in lockdown.

Watching Johnson’s testimony, he was very testy and defensive, and, frankly, unbelievable. I was particularly struck by the hostility of questioning from Tory members of the committee. Meanwhile, simultaneously, a vote on Sunak’s new Northern Ireland agreement with the EU passed easily in the Commons despite former PMs, Johnson’s and Truss’s opposition. It has been a good week for Sunak.

Both Johnson and Trump, populists who have always treated the truth with carelessness, are getting their just deserts and there is a growing sense they are busted flushes. Their influence is waning and those who believe in upholding standards in public life should rest easier this week.

More evidence that the Tories are getting their act together or at least their leadership is. This was a solid, sometimes compassionate budget with well trailed measures on devolution, pensions, energy costs, and childcare.

In particular, it is a laudable aim to get more people into the workforce as the over 50s go awol. There are many deeply unhelpful longer-term consequences of the Covid pandemic, and this is one of them. It undermines productivity, tax revenues and creates labour shortages, which ultimately are inflationary. Let alone the consideration of the health benefits of staying active…

Tories back on form…

However, longer-term problems remain unaddressed as a General Election looms, and a now competent Tory administration runs out of time. There was an interesting article in this weekend’s Sunday Times about the lamentable management by Whitehall of the nation’s major infrastructure projects. Examples of poor stewardship, notably HS2 and an NHS IT system unfit for purpose, are manifest. Apparently, there are 235 major projects costing £678 billion underway, and only 24 are on time and on budget. Yet there are no solutions to improving any of this, which is a major additional barrier to sorting our productivity problem.

And then there is the issue of dealing with the UK’s finances for the long-term. We failed to invest when interest rates were low and now have no money. Conventional Treasury orthodoxy (Truss actually had a fair point here) dominates. We also still hand too many tax breaks to the rich.

It is hugely sensible to lift the cap on pensions saving to encourage more older participants into the workforce, but why hand out tax breaks at the highest marginal tax rates? Even George Osborne wanted to do something on this. Then, the triple lock on old age pensions, which, generationally, deflects an efficient allocation of scarce capital.

Meanwhile, a 6 per cent rise in corporation tax will damage small businesses, particularly service sector ones with little need for capital expenditure.

Tory voter bias continues to rule but this country requires radical, more centrist solutions to fully rejuvenate the economy after the self-inflicted wounds of Brexit and an erratic fiscal policy. It will be the next government’s job, and today, unfortunately for Sunak, it probably won’t be Tory.

It may have been a mess of the Tories’ own making, but the Northern Ireland Protocol needed sorting, and Sunak has done that.

Grown up politics finally on show…

He corrects the mess left by Johnson with an attention to detail, thoroughness, transparency, and level of good faith, which has been all too rare in recent Prime Ministers.

It would be suicidal for Johnson and the extremities of the Tories’ ERG to oppose this new Windsor Framework. In particular, if the former PM cuts up rough, in the process putting himself before Party and before the country yet again, it will be the end of his political career once and for all and rightly so. In a way, though, this deal ends Johnson’s ambitions to be PM again anyway since it simply reminds everyone what a dishonest hash he made of his rushed Brexit deal in the first place to win the 2019 election.

The DUP surely can’t resist either. The relative high level of poverty in Northern Ireland exacerbated by the lack of home rule and Johnson’s protocol cannot continue. It would be electoral suicide and gift Sinn Fein further electoral success, potentially leading to an even more insurmountable border in the North Sea… They have reacted cautiously so far but, for this dour grouping, that is positive!

In Sunak, you saw a grown-up politician yesterday, free of Tory factionalism, pragmatically building relationships with our largest single market and powerful ally in an uncertain world.

Oh, to witness Sunak’s attention to detail without theatrics. Oh, to see the long overdue mutual respect between two key allies, UK and the EU, on show again. Oh, to witness a prime minister caring about international law and the long-term reputation and future of the UK unhampered by divisive, self-destructive ideology.

If the last seven years of post-Brexit misrule weren’t solely the fault of the Conservative Party, it would almost be enough to bring former moderate Tory voters back into the fold again…