No views on the terrible Middle East events this week. Would anybody predict what is going to happen even one hour hence? Except Trump says negotiations are happening and Tehran says that is fake news. Someone is not telling the truth…
So, over to the immediate future of populism. It is a common view that it is thriving across most Western democracies with moderates endlessly on the back foot. Well, to quote another populist who is no longer with us politically, the ‘gloomsters’ are not correct. Let me try and explain why.
Has populism peaked? Probably…
In the UK, this blog has consistently argued Reform UK has peaked. They are down 2-4% to mid to late 20s in recent polls and their whole enterprise hangs purely on Nigel Farage. The recruitment of deeply unpopular right-wing ex-Conservatives has not helped in the red wall seats and then there is tactical voting to consider. By-elections have been disappointing for them both in Wales and Manchester. Add to this their past/current support for the deeply, deeply unpopular Donald Trump (things can only get worse on that front…) and their fate is sealed. Don’t get me wrong, Reform will do well in the May elections and remain a major threat to the usual political order but when it matters, enough voters will unite against them to block a path to power.
Then some good news in France (I am assuming those who read this blog are anti-populist otherwise you are in the wrong place…). The far-right did not make the breakthroughs expected in local elections at the weekend. Moderates on both left and right polled better than predicted. Centre-left socialists held on to Paris, Lyon and Marseilles where in the latter National Rally had particularly high hopes of victory. In Le Havre, Edouard Philippe, a strong centre-right contender for the presidency, easily won re-election. Of course, the closeness of National Rally to the US president did not help their cause. Oh how the populist far-right must now resent being chained to Trump…
In Germany, Chancellor Merz’s conservative party has just seen off a surge in support for the extremist far-right AfD party to win in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate. Albeit at the expense of a sharp fall in support for the SPD, it is another example that moderates in one form or another are still the force to beat.
In Hungary, despite Putin’s best endeavours, the vile Russia supporting nationalist Prime Minister, Victor Orban, is on course to be defeated in elections by the centre-right on 12th April. He is a wily operator so we shall see but is currently 10-12% behind in the polls.
Last but not least, Donald Trump… Iran has been a disaster for him so far, he is deeply unpopular on the economy and now even falling behind in polls on immigration. His most recent satisfaction rating is minus 18% although why 39% of the electorate still supports him is a mystery. The mid-terms look dire for the GOP and the Democrats, still sadly by default, may even take the Senate in addition to the House of Representatives. Then it is game-over for Trump at least in terms of radicalism. But, please don’t try to impeach him. He won the popular vote…
Populism is a powerful force. It may just be reaching its peak. But, of course, to bury it is to be reliant on moderates to prove their case. We are still waiting…
Inside Right Politics 