Month: March 2026

Populism is alive but not so well…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

No views on the terrible Middle East events this week. Would anybody predict what is going to happen even one hour hence? Except Trump says negotiations are happening and Tehran says that is fake news. Someone is not telling the truth…

So, over to the immediate future of populism. It is a common view that it is thriving across most Western democracies with moderates endlessly on the back foot. Well, to quote another populist who is no longer with us politically, the ‘gloomsters’ are not correct. Let me try and explain why.

Has populism peaked? Probably…

In the UK, this blog has consistently argued Reform UK has peaked. They are down 2-4% to mid to late 20s in recent polls and their whole enterprise hangs purely on Nigel Farage. The recruitment of deeply unpopular right-wing ex-Conservatives has not helped in the red wall seats and then there is tactical voting to consider. By-elections have been disappointing for them both in Wales and Manchester. Add to this their past/current support for the deeply, deeply unpopular Donald Trump (things can only get worse on that front…) and their fate is sealed. Don’t get me wrong, Reform will do well in the May elections and remain a major threat to the usual political order but when it matters, enough voters will unite against them to block a path to power.

Then some good news in France (I am assuming those who read this blog are anti-populist otherwise you are in the wrong place…). The far-right did not make the breakthroughs expected in local elections at the weekend. Moderates on both left and right polled better than predicted. Centre-left socialists held on to Paris, Lyon and Marseilles where in the latter National Rally had particularly high hopes of victory. In Le Havre, Edouard Philippe, a strong centre-right contender for the presidency, easily won re-election. Of course, the closeness of National Rally to the US president did not help their cause. Oh how the populist far-right must now resent being chained to Trump…

In Germany, Chancellor Merz’s conservative party has just seen off a surge in support for the extremist far-right AfD party to win in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate. Albeit at the expense of a sharp fall in support for the SPD, it is another example that moderates in one form or another are still the force to beat.

In Hungary, despite Putin’s best endeavours, the vile Russia supporting nationalist Prime Minister, Victor Orban, is on course to be defeated in elections by the centre-right on 12th April. He is a wily operator so we shall see but is currently 10-12% behind in the polls.

Last but not least, Donald Trump… Iran has been a disaster for him so far, he is deeply unpopular on the economy and now even falling behind in polls on immigration. His most recent satisfaction rating is minus 18% although why 39% of the electorate still supports him is a mystery. The mid-terms look dire for the GOP and the Democrats, still sadly by default, may even take the Senate in addition to the House of Representatives. Then it is game-over for Trump at least in terms of radicalism. But, please don’t try to impeach him. He won the popular vote…

Populism is a powerful force. It may just be reaching its peak. But, of course, to bury it is to be reliant on moderates to prove their case. We are still waiting…

Starmer captures the public mood on Iran…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The war with Iran is starting to feel like a quagmire. Iran’s defence capability has largely been eradicated by the US and Israel and yet, and yet… Some Iranian missiles and quite a few drones are still threatening the region. Oil and gas prices have surged. Ayatollah Khamenei’s son is the new Supreme Leader. Mojtaba Khamenei is a hardliner and one doubts he will soften the regime, particularly having lost his father, mother, wife and a son in air strikes.

The destruction spreads as war on Iran and its supporters continues…

So what is left? An extremist Iranian regime in place, playing with oil and gas prices with drones (how war has changed), waiting for Trump to lose interest. The longer this conflict goes on, the more you feel Trump has been played by Netanyahu. Israel will feel safer than it did particularly with additional excursions into Lebanon but Trump will have got very little from this war and markets will decide Trump’s next actions not international law or morality.

And globally? Where has the UN been? To think of the efforts Blair and Bush made trying to get UN approval for the invasion of Iraq even if it didn’t matter in the end. Putin and Xi must be rubbing their hands with glee at the tearing up of the international order. Putin will use every opportunity to double down on his invasion of Ukraine whilst the Taiwanese will be sleeping less easily in their beds.

Against this chaotic, immoral background, Starmer has done a good job in holding the middle ground and is broadly where the British public are on this war, although they give him little credit. He applied international law at the start of the campaign against Iran by denying the US UK bases, only to loosen this when international law allowed. In appearing as lapdogs to Trump, the Tories and Reform have been hopeless and quite frankly stupid. In particular, it has not been Kemi Badenoch’s finest hour who’s military analysis has been amateur at best. What happened to UK unity at least at the start of a threatening international conflict? Meanwhile, anarchistic Greens and the LibDems from the other extreme eschew all common sense in goading Trump and should be rightly ignored.

I am not usually a fan but Yvette Cooper, Foreign Secretary, put it perfectly in an interview. ‘The UK does not agree with Trump on every issue and cannot outsource foreign policy to others’. Good for her.

Except for the far too slow pace of moving warships to the region, we should be sticking with Starmer on this issue and actually longer term too until the Opposition make any sense at all.

Global politics goes crazy and the UK is not immune

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The Middle East conflict is scary, depressing and bodes very badly for global security. This is not the time to predict how it will end but a few thoughts. The Iranian regime is truly awful. It kills its own people en masse and causes mischief throughout the region, but does that justify Trump and Netanyahu’s actions? No.

War is a bloody business with devastating and often unintended consequences…

What an earth are these two leaders doing? If Trump, however frustrated, lies during negotiations with Iran who will ever believe America’s word again? That comes after his actions in Venezuela which has emboldened him, and his erratic policy making in general, whether it be pirouetting on tariffs, Ukraine or even the UK’s Chagos Islands deal. Most of Trump’s actions are destabilising, at times probably illegal and sowing chaos.

And what are Netanyahu’s motivations? Israel’s elections later this year? Let’s make this personal. It is these two leaders who own the consequences of their actions. It is far less about America and Israel as a whole. They are both out of control and one really hopes their wings are finally clipped by US mid-terms and the Israeli General Election.

There seems to be no plan for how the war with Iran ends. Hegseth talks about this not being a forever war, whilst attacking the UK for noticing international law when not allowing its air bases to be initially used in the attack. Trump yesterday said about Starmer that ‘it is not Churchill we are dealing with’. Well, the same Churchill said, ‘Victory is never final’. The ‘Secretary of State for War’ (how ridiculous is that?) should check in with his boss who has just extended the possible length of the conflict beyond a few weeks, saying wars can be fought ‘forever’.

Trump talks about the threat from Iran but there is no equivalency with Russia’s threat to Ukraine and the wider security implications for European allies and global peace. Two million people have died or been injured due to Russia’s transgressions, but Trump wants to reward Putin by giving him victory over Donetsk, taking sovereign land through aggression. Everything Trump does internationally seems to provide cover for Russia and, of course, China should they decide to seize Taiwan.

Global superpowers seem to be going rogue. It has never been more important for Europe to get its security act together and become at least regionally a collective superpower. The case for the UK being part of this alliance and indeed being closer to the EU has never been stronger.

And that takes us briefly to UK politics. The Greens soar to 21% and second place in the polls with Reform UK on 23% and Labour and the Tories languishing on 16%. The LibDems, missing an historic opportunity to finish off the Tories (that is for another blog) limp in at 14%. Meanwhile, Reform and the Tories slavishly support Trump on Iran when only 28% of the public do according to a latest opinion poll.

You may not like or rate him, but as politics polarises, the need for Starmer leading a moderate UK government is more overwhelming than ever.