Personal ambition over national interest… no wonder voters despair of politicians…

A Trump free blog this week. No point dignifying his grotesque comments on NATO soldiers by repeating them or indeed reflecting on his half apology. If only the media would drop their minute by minute obsession with him too. Constantly repeating, analysing and damning Trump’s lies, exaggerations and U-turns is playing to his agenda. Just ignore him whenever possible although more difficult if you live in Minneapolis… We are all sick of the sight and sound of him.

So over to the hapless Labour government in the UK instead… It is in a hole but just keeps digging.

Labour politicians should park their personal ambitions until they have achieved something…

Starmer is a pretty useless PM. I thought he would be better than this. An uncharismatic technocrat who would get things done combined with a bit of integrity. Is that too much to ask? To his credit, he has had some success in overseas relations but it makes very little difference to his opinion poll ratings at home. He seems to have no domestic strategy. U-turn after U-turn just confirms the problem. It doesn’t help that he has few heavyweight colleagues. Lammy, Cooper, Reeves are either blowhards, out of their depth or both. The jury is out on Wes Streeting. The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, and John Healey at Defence seem good but they can hardly carry the government on their own. Collectively, ministers show no bravery in getting things done.

Despite all this, Starmer should be given more time. He must surely learn from some of his more obvious mistakes and now is not the time to change leader as the UK faces crises on all fronts. And let’s be clear. Andy Burnham is no solution. Vastly overrated, a self-indulgent lightweight, now blocked from standing in a by-election, he should finish his mayoral term and save us all the drama. The media are busy whipping up as much hysteria as possible about Burnham to cause Starmer trouble but shouldn’t be allowed to succeed. As for Wes Streeting. The best thing he could do is put his ego in a box and get on with turning around the NHS. That would be a legacy anybody would be proud of and far more important than being a mere PM.

Internal manoeuvrings in the Labour Party make voters despair. The government needs to focus on turning the country round, a job it has hardly started, not become a playground for self-indulgent personal ambition. No wonder people toy with Reform who, of course, would be no better.

Which takes me to the rare bright spot in British politics. The demise of Robert Jenrick. A vile little opportunist who his former colleagues and quite a few voters saw straight through. Reform are welcome to him, as they become a graveyard for mad, bad and dangerous second rate Tories. It allows Kemi Badenoch to focus on where she should have started, the economy stupid.

It may make the Tories more attractive again. They are climbing very slowly in the opinion polls. And if nothing else, that should focus the minds of Labour politicians on where they are needed, the national interest…

NATO teeters on the brink…

Just a week after calling Trump a rogue President, he goes rogue on Greenland, Europe and NATO.

Hands off, Trump!

It can’t be emphasised strongly enough. The US has no rights to Greenland and if Trump seizes it by force it would be the end of NATO. Europe would essentially be at war with the US. Incredible. Putin and Xi must be loving it and, consequently, the future of Ukraine and Taiwan now looks grim.

It is probably all negotiation tactics, but Trump cannot be allowed to treat allies like this. The US had 10,000 troops in Greenland which today is down to c150. It is partly America’s fault that currently Greenland is under defended. They could simply go back to having a larger military base.

Except… it is really Europe’s fault we are in this situation. Why leave it just to America to have a base there? There were apparently no NATO troops ex the US in Greenland. Last week in the face of Trump’s aggression, Britain has sent just one officer, France has sent 15 troops, Germany 13 and Norway two. 50 in all from Europe. Pathetic.

The only worthwhile legacy from Trump will be Europe getting its act together militarily.

In the meantime, I have just listened to Starmer’s statement on the crisis. Mealy mouthed triangulation. You can see why he fails to grasp the public’s imagination. His approach is no longer working. The US has just reneged on a tech agreement with the UK, negotiated in good faith, which we thought was in the bag. It is clear there is no longer any point in bending the knee to the US. Trump’s administration has provided much evidence that it just encourages greater contempt for ‘wishy, washy socialist’ Europe.

Europe needs to stand up to Trump once and for all. Any one party in the UK who doesn’t will not get my vote!

Jenrick, Tory Shadow Justice Secretary, sacked. Good riddance!

An addendum to this morning’s blog on the US. Robert Jenrick, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s arch rival has been sacked from the Shadow Cabinet for planning to defect to Reform. One 2026 prediction that he would not be her successor seems to have come true already…

He is a man wholly without principle. He stands for ambition and ambition only. He has become an extremist on immigration. Good riddance!

At this rate, with all these defections, the Tory Party might be left with a majority of sensible moderates who could one day speed up the Party’s return to power…

At what point do Americans turn on Trump?

We await news on Iran. US involvement in the Middle East has gone so well in the past… but in terms of what we do know, Trump’s presidency had hit a new low at the start of 2026. Let’s look at four actions that truly appal:

A rogue President in action…

  1. The invasion of Venezuela. No moral purpose to removing the illegitimate, thoroughly corrupt Maduro. Simply a blatant oil grab setting a precedent for dictators and wannabe dictators to invade at will. Only belatedly has Trump even acknowledged his ‘competitor’ for the Nobel peace prize, María Corina Machado, by far a more legitimate successor to Maduro than the his corrupt underlings who Trump is happy to support if they let American oil companies drill. What could possibly go wrong…
  2. The shooting of an innocent, yes innocent woman driving away or at least having no intention of hitting an ICE agent, in Minnesota. Three shots were fired at her, two directly into the car through an open side window. If shots had to be fired, why weren’t they fired at the tyres? It might have something to do with the fact increasingly out of control ICE agents with the task of rounding up illegal immigrants now only have six weeks training, cut in the first place from a very short three months. She had just dropped her six year old child at school FFS. The blatant re-writing of the history of the event by Trump and JD Vance was pure extremism. Ok to kill a left-wing lesbian apparently… Interestingly, the FBI won’t allow local officials to investigate the incident.
  3. Threats to Greenland and therefore the NATO Alliance. Trump is happy to take the country ‘the hard way’ as part of his Arctic strategy if Greenland/Denmark don’t capitulate. I don’t actually think he will invade but is doing his usual job of sowing chaos to move the agenda in his own favour. What a way to treat an ally whilst at the same time putting the whole western alliance at risk of disintegration.
  4. And then this week attacking the independence of the Federal Reserve by steering US prosecutors to investigate its Chairman, Jay Powell, over the renovation of its headquarters, because he won’t cut interest rates when Trump wants him to. You really hope markets punish the US if Trump gets his way and makes the Fed a pawn to his whims.

To add to a growing list, there is the constant undermining of independent judicial processes, the bullying of institutions such as the takeover of the ‘Trump’- Kennedy arts center, the enrichment of the Trump family, the blatant lies when any of Trump’s cabinet open their mouths, the insults to European allies, the cosying up to Putin and downgrading of China, allowing it to catch up with the US all that more quickly.

Trump has a net approval rating of -17%, similar to his first term. This is very weak driven mainly by unhappiness over the cost of living, but incredibly 39% of voters still approve of Trump’s presidency. It is surely time for a dose of morality to be injected into US political debate. When you are the world’s only superpower voters cannot just focus on domestic affairs. The problem is the whole US political system is deeply flawed which sometimes makes stark comparisons of Trump versus others harder to make. But it is time for a reset.

Trump is a rogue president and can only be shamed, not by impotent, increasingly unhappy Republican members of Congress, but by dynamic leadership from the Democrats and the emergence of a clear presidential contender. Umm… good luck on that one.

What a start to the year…

First, let’s be clear on Venezuela. My brother lived and worked there. I spent a week in Caracas before visiting Angel Falls, dodging firebombs. What should be one of the world’s richest countries through oil is a poverty stricken, corrupt mess. Chavez and Maduro plundered its resources for personal gain. Good riddance to Maduro.

And yet. And yet… the manner reflects the worst attributes of Trump’s regime. It sets a precedent for China/Taiwan and Russia/Ukraine let alone America/Greenland which would essentially put the US at war with NATO allies. Presidents Xi and Putin must be rubbing their hands with glee.

Brave or foolhardy. Predictions for this year are hard to make…

As mentioned before, the prediction from a Sky News commentator that Trump’s world view is to carve the globe between three strongmen (Trump, Xi and Putin) is becoming uncomfortably true.

Which takes me to my predictions for 2026 via a review of those for 2025… I actually got 5 out of 9 correct, 2 half correct and 2 completely wrong. That makes a net 6 out of 9. Umm… Not too bad but I must apologise for the terrible mistake of saying Trump might well be more benign than expected. This overshadows all the rest. To be fair to me… I quickly corrected this formally in my blog of 19th February (worth another read) but that’s no excuse. My initial focus was to worry about what comes next after Trump rather than be concerned about the clearly malign, well prepared Trump II.

Anyway, sticking to the positives:

Labour would have a terrible year but some glimmers of progress would be seen at the end of 2025. Progress yet to be seen. Half correct.

Despite mutterings Starmer would remain PM. Correct.

The Tories would have a terrible year and flatline at best in the polls. Correct.

Reform UK would have a strong year, but with clear signs by end of 2025 they have peaked. This is starting to show in opinion polls along with tactical voting to defeat them. Correct.

The CDU/CSU in Germany would see off the AFD and win power. AFD are a force to be reckoned with but correct.

China would have a miserable year but would not invade Taiwan in 2025 to distract attention. Actually, Trump has made it a great year for China, and an invasion of Taiwan is still firmly on the agenda. Half correct.

The war in Gaza would end but on Israel’s terms. Correct.

Trump would force a tougher settlement on Ukraine than Russia wants. No sign of that so far. Incorrect.

Over to 2026. Such is global uncertainty, to resist foolhardiness and protect my reputation, I have decided to apply odds to my predictions…

  1. Starmer will remain PM. Labour is poor at replacing leaders and there is no clear successor. There actually might also be glimmers of hope in the government making progress if it can learn from its endless mistakes. 60/40.
  2. Badenoch, the Tory leader, will keep her job. A disaster in May’s local elections is now ‘priced in’, her opponent, Jenrick, is seen as increasingly weird in his desperate desire for the top role and a formal alignment with Reform UK would be the end of the Tories. There are no other clear successors. 60/40.
  3. In focusing on the economy, the Tories will pick up a little in the polls at Reform UK’s expense who will be seen to have peaked despite a strong performance in May. 70/30.
  4. There will be an uneasy peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Neither will be happy but Russia will have the upper hand and hostilities at a certain level will continue. 70/30.
  5. There will be no invasion of Taiwan by China this year but preparations will continue aided by Trump setting precedent with his actions towards Venezuela. 80/20.
  6. Trump’s malign and maverick unpredictability will continue. He and his advisors are running down the clock towards the mid-terms where the Democrats (still hopeless) should take the House of Representatives curtailing at least Trump’s domestic agenda. His actions, however, will stop short of seizing Greenland. Even Trump might baulk at essentially going to war with NATO allies but expect a much larger US/Greenland military base and action in Cuba. 80/20.
  7. No predictions for Europe. Elections are mostly local and although populists will perform strongly it is too early to tell how predictive that will be nationally. Politics will be dominated by the war in Ukraine and, for the UK, the prospect of closer EU alignment.

So, there we are. Six hedged predictions for 2026. The question is not how accurate my odds are on likely outcomes, but what I may have missed altogether. A challenge for all commentators, small and large…

Happy New Year!