We had Rafael Behr, lead writer at The Guardian speaking at my company’s investment seminar this week and very insightful he was too. His analysis pretty much reflects my own thoughts… and so I thought it was worth summarising below:
Being PM is not proving easy…
- Starmer has no political brain (or political friends) whatsoever. A deeply private man, he just wants to run the country competently. But being PM doesn’t work like this. You have to bring people with you and avoid elephant traps. He fails on both these measures. His colleagues would love to get rid of him believing his polling territory is beyond repair. However, as usual, Labour is incapable of removing its leaders.
- On policy, the government is torn between tearing up its manifesto on tax and raising serious amounts of money to move the dial on public services or dying by a thousand minor cuts. What a mess the election campaign has put Labour in in promising no core tax hikes. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
- No better news for the Tories who have no qualms in getting rid of their leaders. Badenoch will probably be gone by May and the weird Jenrick put in her place. A Reform/Tory pact will be the death of the Tories but, interestingly, Tories are currently toxic to Reform’s brand as they focus on Red Wall seats, so Farage is not interested in this outcome. At least for now.
- Farage is more strategic than he is given credit for. Reform, however, remains a one man band and the major hope for the two main parties is that he falls under a bus between now and the next General Election.
- The betting today is that Labour will probably just pull it off in keeping hold of power at the next election or governing with the LibDems as voters stare into the abyss of a Reform led government. Interesting that Reform polled below expectations in yesterday’s Caerphilly by-election, falling some distance behind Plaid Cymru, when they were expected to win.
- Most of the above could be thrown up in the air with the unpredictable Trump and his approach to global politics.
So, there you have it. All a big mess. No wonder voters tune out of politics…
Inside Right Politics 