The latest opinion poll in The Times has Reform in the lead on 27%. No surprise there but, if I were Farage, I would be disappointed. Particularly after the Caerphilly by-election. Reform was expected to win but came a distant second. At this stage, it needs to be further ahead.

Not much solace for any of the occupants, even Farage…

What is more disturbing for Farage is the state of the other parties. Superficially, good news that Labour has slumped to 17% (we will come back to this) alongside the Tories who are also on 17%, but, alarmingly, the Greens have surged to 16% with the LibDems on 15% (we will come back to this too).

This is peak Reform-time. Labour and the Tories appear hopeless but surely have little further to fall. The strength of the Greens and LibDems suggest when everything is going wrong for the government, the election result (nearly four years’ away) still points to a red/orange/green alliance.

There is plenty of time for Starmer to pull back some support and plenty of time for Reform to at least partially blow up. The recent comments from one of its MP’s (Sarah Pochin) that she was driven mad by “seeing adverts full of black and Asian people” provoked a rare apology from Farage. The electorate for all their frustrations does not like such overt racism and one suspects there is more to come.

Meanwhile Labour keeps failing to deliver. What is wrong with them? Why are they so hopeless at governing and so bad at communications? All Starmer’s competence is being eroded a way leaving an uncharismatic shell at the heart of government with seemingly no guiding philosophy for what he wants to achieve. Pragmatism is one thing but pragmatically achieving nothing is another…. House building targets are already unachievable, small boats keep coming, taxes keep rising partly because of a failure to make cuts where required. The list goes on. Labour really needs these next four years!

But what about the Tories and LibDems? The Tories remain flat footedly useless, still believing a Reform-lite agenda is a substitute for economic competence. But it is the LibDems who should also be disappointed by their opinion poll rating. The Greens are cutting through, yet the LibDems choose to make their opposition day in parliament on the Royal Family. What?? More importantly, still traumatised by their alliance in government with the Tories, they are failing to make an economic case for moderate Tories to switch over to them permanently. They have it in their hands to destroy the Tories for a generation but like electoral reform and reform of the House of Lords are missing a once in a lifetime open goal.

So, there you have it. All major parties and wannabee major parties ex the Greens are failing to resonate. Against this backdrop, bizarrely, the electoral landscape still (just) favours the government…

We had Rafael Behr, lead writer at The Guardian speaking at my company’s investment seminar this week and very insightful he was too. His analysis pretty much reflects my own thoughts… and so I thought it was worth summarising below:

Being PM is not proving easy…

• Starmer has no political brain (or political friends) whatsoever. A deeply private man, he just wants to run the country competently. But being PM doesn’t work like this. You have to bring people with you and avoid elephant traps. He fails on both these measures. His colleagues would love to get rid of him believing his polling territory is beyond repair. However, as usual, Labour is incapable of removing its leaders.
• On policy, the government is torn between tearing up its manifesto on tax and raising serious amounts of money to move the dial on public services or dying by a thousand minor cuts. What a mess the election campaign has put Labour in in promising no core tax hikes. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
• No better news for the Tories who have no qualms in getting rid of their leaders. Badenoch will probably be gone by May and the weird Jenrick put in her place. A Reform/Tory pact will be the death of the Tories but, interestingly, Tories are currently toxic to Reform’s brand as they focus on Red Wall seats, so Farage is not interested in this outcome. At least for now.
• Farage is more strategic than he is given credit for. Reform, however, remains a one man band and the major hope for the two main parties is that he falls under a bus between now and the next General Election.
• The betting today is that Labour will probably just pull it off in keeping hold of power at the next election or governing with the LibDems as voters stare into the abyss of a Reform led government. Interesting that Reform polled below expectations in yesterday’s Caerphilly by-election, falling some distance behind Plaid Cymru, when they were expected to win.
• Most of the above could be thrown up in the air with the unpredictable Trump and his approach to global politics.

So, there you have it. All a big mess. No wonder voters tune out of politics…