It could be worse, you could be French…

No Trump analysis today. This blog can’t face it except to say his rambling, bizarre, boastful speech, packed full of untruths, at the United Nations yesterday says it all…

So, over the English Channel to France. France is one of my favourite countries. It is the America of Europe (except for oil) in terms of natural geographical/geological advantages. A Mediterranean and Atlantic coastline, beautiful mountain ranges, varied, outstanding countryside and that is before you get to the wine and food and its rich cultural heritage. Throw in France’s relative low population compared to the more crowded UK, and it seems it has everything going for it.

Except…

Macron fails to land any punches against his opponents…

Its economy and politics, inextricably linked, are in a mess and Macron from the centre-ground who promised so much has ended up being a near disaster. Let’s run through a few of France’s challenges:

• Its debt-to-GDP ratio is 114.1 percent, second only to Greece and Italy in Europe and way higher than the UK’s 96.1 percent. This is forecast to rise to 118 percent in 2026. French debt has recently been downgraded by ratings agencies and the cost of debt is now Euro 67 billion per annum.
• There is no political consensus to reduce these levels of debt. Macron has had seven prime ministers during his presidency (five in the past two years), several falling on their sword due to the rejection of budget cuts. The last premier, Francois Bayrou, lost his job earlier this month trying to push reductions in government expenditure through parliament, being soundly defeated in the process.
• Politics is spiralling out of control and national strikes are commonplace as voters reach for the extremes out of frustration at the inability of mainstream politicians to govern effectively. As the centre-right/centre-left have imploded, the far-right and far-left now control nearly 60 percent of the National Assembly since Macron’s rash decision to call elections in 2024. It means Macron can get nothing done. See above.
• Economic challenges mount. The countryside is emptying out leaving extensive rural poverty behind, fuelling political extremism. Industrial competitiveness is declining sharply, bureaucratic inefficiencies remain untackled. The generous welfare state remains totally unaffordable. It is only a matter of time before the country faces a potentially huge fiscal crisis.
• Europe will hold its breath at the next presidential election. The far-right National Rally gained 33.9 percent of the vote last time and represented by Jordan Bardella, replacement candidate for the currently barred Marine Le Pen, is polling 10 percent ahead in current opinion polls over the far-left. Moderates are nowhere.

In the UK, we may have a deeply unpopular government which keeps shooting itself in the foot but there is a consensus across most parties that many of our similar problems to France’s need tackling and, indeed this is slowly happening. We have four years of relatively stable politics to go to head off the populist threat from Nigel Farage who, to be fair, is probably more benign than the National Rally.

It is worth remembering there are some positives to being in the UK. Just look at our closest neighbour across the channel…