It’s Irregular Migration, Stupid…

As a news junky, I rarely tune out of the news. But this summer with the exception of the Putin/Trump summit on Ukraine, I have.

Probably not surprising. Whether it is Israel/Gaza, Ukraine or Trump’s actions generally, the news agenda is uniformly depressing. Nothing gets resolved, the aggressors make ground and, with Trump, there seems no checks and balances on his increasingly authoritarian presidency.

But, closer to home, it is the furore over the small boats crisis which makes grim reading/watching. As the number of irregular migrants rises (still a small percentage of overall immigration), it is the worst face of Britain on show. Racist thugs besiege migrant hotels (if only we could deport them…) and Nigel Farage makes hay proposing all sorts of impossible policies whilst Starmer’s government seems rudderless.

The worst face of Britain on display…

Whether you like it or not a meaningful solution has to be found to ‘stop the small boats’ otherwise Farage’s momentum may not stall through to the next election. He is currently 8 percent ahead of Labour in the polls. Just look what the issue of irregular or illegal immigration did for Trump. Liberals in the broadest sense of the word need to form a consensus that action needs to be taken and support increasingly bold initiatives from Starmer, otherwise the consequences electorally for their agenda will be far worse.

Margaret Thatcher alighted on the issue of legal versus illegal immigration years ago and warned of the fallout from unfettered access to the UK. It has been the Achilles heel of successive governments and now a potential fatal wound for Starmer if he doesn’t get numbers down.

And let’s be clear, many voters, not the ones demonstrating outside hotels, have a valid point. There are genuine fears, even if hardly justified by the facts or exaggerated, about large numbers of young men from different cultural backgrounds being housed in small towns. The cost of the hotels to accommodate migrants as armies of lawyers appeal nearly every deportation is outrageous, particularly when there is such a housing shortage in the UK and the government is short of money generally. Every government initiative is too little, too late and we will end up leaving the ECHR and other international agreements if nothing can be done.

Immigration is vital to the health of the UK economy. Migrants enrich our life but irregular migration washes out many of the perceived benefits. Fears whipped up by Farage and the vile Robert Jenrick, Shadow Justice Secretary, (shame on the Tory Party for letting his agenda run) dominate the headlines. The political agenda and public life generally is becoming ugly which can only benefit populists. Starmer has to park his international activities and focus on his domestic ones whatever the cost otherwise he will be a one-term premier.

Against this backdrop, when indoors, no wonder this summer has been dominated by the likes of Netflix rather than the news…

Trump’s approach to Ukraine remains a messy betrayal…

The recent Trump/Putin summit felt like the one with Kim Jong Un. A pariah is invited to meet Trump on the pariah’s terms. The pariah gains validation from the meeting, strokes Trump’s ego, and departs in a stronger position.

Trump gains nothing from the meeting except a belief he is a deal-maker extraordinaire. The pariah gains time to wreak more mayhem.

To date, Trump has been outplayed by Putin. Does he really care?

International diplomacy is no property transaction. It is a game of brutal chess, testing your opponent’s weaknesses to outplay them. Trump’s frailties (notably his ego) are there for all to see, but sadly, the consequences of being outplayed are far more serious than a mere game of chess.

Putin has bought time (useful if you are winning the battle) and has persuaded Trump that illegal territorial gains in Ukraine from an act of war should be recognised. Ukraine apparently has no right to join NATO, and Western troops have no right to protect Ukraine’s borders. Trump’s security guarantees if a settlement is reached from such a mercurial president are hardly worth the paper they are written on. He could never put American troops on the ground anyway due to his isolationist base. Just look how they responded to the bombing of Iran.

The positive from all this is the impressive response from the major European powers, acting as one in seeking to defend Ukraine and, in doing so, their own security. As they rushed to the White House displaying a normally well-hidden mastery of the English language, the future of the UK seems clear. It is in Europe and aligned with the EU. The US is now no longer a reliable ally regardless of Trump.

The challenge is that Europe needs longer to rearm than it will take Putin to defeat Ukraine. Bowing the knee to Trump is an unpleasant necessity for now.

But let’s be clear. Only Putin has been the beneficiary of Trump’s actions in the past week or so. As the largest wave of Russian drone strikes hit Ukraine overnight, the messy betrayal of Ukraine by this US president remains unchanged.