The US: an increasingly foreign country for Europeans…

I went to Chicago, Boston, and New York last week on business. It included a mock listing for my company, JPES Partners, on Nasdaq courtesy of our partners, eVestment. Thank you. It was fun.

When in the US, focus on the positives such as Nasdaq’s brilliant self-promotion…

I stayed on to see close friends at the weekend. That was fun, too. But they are worried.

The politics of this country is dark, very dark. Like Brexit in the UK, Trump is toxic. Half of the electorate loathe him and are simply embarrassed or alarmed. The other half feel he is a slightly unpleasant necessity. A small minority of course love him but, even amongst the latter, few would want him round for dinner…

Trump’s presidency is sinister, and his presence makes the country increasingly foreign to Europeans. I was warned to take any anti-Trump material off my phone before entering the country as border security could ask to see it and send me home if it offended. What??? Federal institutions are under attack, including the judiciary. Cultural and educational institutions seen as liberal are also under attack or are usurped. Trump taking over the Kennedy Centre and the attempted crushing of Harvard by withdrawing federal grants are just two painful examples.

Trump threatens NATO, bombs Iran, swears at Israel and lies on the international stage. It is too early to address the impact of his chaotic foreign policy, but it is splitting his isolationist supporters. They will bend the knee in the end. They have nowhere else to go. Just listen to the pathetic and vile Steve Bannon grovelling to Trump on the Middle East.

Domestically, Trump also happens to be forcing through a tax bill stripping Medicaid from 16m Americans whilst shovelling cash to the rich. Shame on the Republican Party.

Yet, the Democrats in response are hopeless. Either stunned into inaction or busy in-fighting. A new generation of activists believe a lurch to the Left is the solution to Trump with Democrats in New York electing a privileged self-described socialist to be their candidate for mayor. Take note, you muppets. Corbyn’s experience in the UK should be a guide. It may feel good, but you will never win elections nationally from this position. Voters are mostly centrist, and your failure to offer a decent alternative to Trump re voters’ core concerns handed him victory in the first place.

Trump was underestimated, and the US Constitution overestimated. Checks and balances feel illusionary. Against this background, I know many Europeans who have withdrawn from holidaying in the US until Trump has gone. Public life has become too wild. My response? I walked past Trump Tower on 5th Avenue, forgetting to look. You just have to focus on the belief that Trump will never define this country, whatever current damage this man does. Just ignore him and keep on walking…

Nice to be home, though.

‘Logical’ Conservatism is the way to defeat populism

As writer of this blog, I have to make a confession. I am a member of an organisation that represents an extremist minority in UK politics. It is called the Conservative European Forum (CEF) which amongst other things represents pro-EU Conservatives…

It believes the Conservative Party should anchor itself on the centre-right and no further, focusing on strong relationships with our European partners, economically and in relation to defence. Add to that respect for institutions of state, social liberalism but supporting family structures in whatever form they take, fiscal prudence but always aiming for lower taxes when they can be afforded, aspiration, a comprehensive but fair (to everyone) social security net to name a few other beliefs and you have the best of a Conservative Party that has today lost its bearings.

The CEF held a breakfast with Matthew Parris this week. The conversation took a gloomy turn…:

  • The Conservative Party is heading to a dead end chasing Reform
  • Kemi Badenoch is underperforming (a polite summary) and her leadership is time limited
  • The main thing saving the Conservative Party is the LibDems failing to, not wanting to, or being unable to move to the Right to finish it off once and for all
  • The route to redemption is sweeping away the recent past, regaining a reputation for economic competence. It is always the economy stupid, never immigration or cultural wars
  • That now is the time to be unpopular, advocating cutting unsustainable debt, in the process and in particular, rebalancing policies away from older voters to younger ones
  • The Party doesn’t get any of this except point two…

Rebalancing economic policies, indeed even focusing on them at all, will inevitably be hugely unpopular to the few remaining Conservative Party members let alone some Conservative inclined voters, but absolutely logical and necessary. It is needed early in this parliament to sow the seeds of redemption, even whilst understanding it will be a long road back to power over more than one election cycle, whoever is leading the Party.

Neither show the understanding or commitment to defeat populism

Which takes me to the Labour government’s spending review yesterday. One can applaud capital spending but the actual or imminent retreat on the winter fuel allowance, sickness benefits, the two children policy whilst refusing to increase core taxes is fantasy economics. There is a consensus Rachel Reeves is safe in her job for now but a UK debt crisis is around the corner if we are not beaten to it by the US.

Moderate politicians are being frequently thrashed by populists because they have promised too much and under-delivered for too long. Labour’s sums don’t add up and the lack of clarity in the overall message means it remains disappointingly business as usual for this centrist government.

If the Conservatives could have a serious, logical conversation about the huge pressures facing public expenditure and what hard, unpopular decisions need to be taken to correct the trajectory, they could start to regain a reputation for economic competence, expanding their voting base from the cul-de-sac they find themselves in now.

Sounds logical but more pain is required before such a path to recovery is taken. All on the assumption the patient doesn’t expire in the meantime…

US teeters on the economic brink…

The Trump presidency is a roller coaster affair, even worse than most pundits feared. You can’t argue it isn’t box office, though, perhaps deliberately so. The long expected blow-up between Trump and Musk is pure theatre.

A relationship made for theatre…

However, there is one constant. The state of the US economy and its grotesque burden of debt. On this issue, Elon Musk is correct.

The budget deficit was an incredible 6.4% of GDP in 2024. Forecasters expect this to rise above 7% in every year of Trump’s presidency. The US debt pile currently exceeds 120% of GDP. This is unsustainable.

When Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, has to reassure markets that ‘the US is never going to default’, you know there is real trouble brewing.

Trump’s big, beautiful tax bill will remove the debt ceiling. Its impact is expected to add US2.4 trillion of additional debt over the next decade. The evidence is clear. Tax cuts mainly for the better off, never pay for themselves.

Add to this tariffs cutting growth, fears over Trump’s presidency undermining the rule of law and unpredictable foreign policy initiatives in the face of geopolitical instability, and you have a recipe for economic disaster.

Longer-term US interest rates are rising, exacerbating the debt problem whilst the US dollar weakens.

Trump’s economic approval ratings are dire, but these are not yet in territory to undermine his populist presidency. He continues to play out his hugely risky economic experiment. Republican fiscal conservatives must be turning in their graves, for that is where most of them are.

Bill Clinton was the last president to balance the budget. Rather than set up his own party, perhaps Elon Musk should change sides and vote Democrat…

Meanwhile, on this side of the pond it is a key week for the Labour government as it announces details of its spending review. More on this later but if it is not ‘big, beautiful and bold’, you would have to ask what is the point of Starmer/Reeves et al.