Month: March 2025

No morality: the world has become a marketplace

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Civilised democracies’ opponents sadly now include America in addition to Russia and China. There is no longer such a thing as the West and Western values.

Everything can be bought under Trump. Threats and bribes will decide the outcome of any negotiation. There is no morality, no commitment to democratic values. Autocratic strength is paramount, and the new competitive bromance is between Trump, Putin, and Xi.

Simply an appalling President, tearing up Western values

A Sky News commentator years ago warned that Trump and his acolytes wanted the world divided between these powers without any guiding principles except the acquisition of power and money. Autocrats rule, the weak are crushed, and red meat and lies are thrown at voters to keep them acquiescent, that is, if voters exist at all. It seems this is the case.

This blog has already torn up one 2025 prediction that Trump would be better than expected. He is worse. Far, far worse. Surrounded by immoral (no longer amoral), ideological operators a clear political, anti-democratic agenda is unfolding.

The vile Vice President Vance was a disgrace in front of Zelenskyy and has insulted European democracies and the actions of their soldiers in previous wars. The Defence Secretary, Hegseth, clearly a moron, participated in leaked secret plans for a military strike in the Middle East on an unprotected online platform. An anti-European group chat of senior Trump Administration officials, oh, and the Editor-in-Chief of The Atlantic magazine by accident. Any resignations? No, just obfuscation and a wholly unfounded attack on the journalist to try and discredit him to hide the scandal.

Then we have Musk. In charge of DOGE (a new department to improve government efficiency – actually not a bad concept if done properly), he is totally out of control. Randomly firing government employees, he bizarrely finds time to support far-right extremists across Europe.

Finally, we have a US President, yes, a US President, praising Russia and its leader Putin, threatening Canada and Greenland, insulting Europe, and planning to carve up Ukraine like Hitler and Chamberlain did with the Czechoslovakia Sudetenland or Stalin and Hitler did with Poland. This is not an exaggeration. It is that serious.

The upside? Europe and other countries with clear democratic principles are uniting to manage their future without the US and possibly NATO. Long overdue.

Americans are either supportive of Trump or seemingly oblivious. The Democrats are impotent, hopelessly directionless, and wholly responsible for Trump’s victory.

The consequences of Trump’s actions are hard to contemplate. But one thing is for sure. The world is becoming an amoral marketplace with everything for sale. Democracy is scorned, and American voters should be ashamed of what is being done in their name.

No morality: the world has become a marketplace

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

Civilised democracies’ opponents sadly now include America in addition to Russia and China. There is no longer such a thing as the West and Western values.

Everything can be bought under Trump. Threats and bribes will decide the outcome of any negotiation. There is no morality, no commitment to democratic values. Autocratic strength is paramount, and the new competitive bromance is between Trump, Putin, and Xi.

Simply an appalling President, tearing up Western values

A Sky News commentator years ago warned that Trump and his acolytes wanted the world divided between these powers without any guiding principles except the acquisition of power and money. Autocrats rule, the weak are crushed, and red meat and lies are thrown at voters to keep them acquiescent, that is, if voters exist at all. It seems this is the case.

This blog has already torn up one 2025 prediction that Trump would be better than expected. He is worse. Far, far worse. Surrounded by immoral (no longer amoral), ideological operators a clear political, anti-democratic agenda is unfolding.

The vile Vice President Vance was a disgrace in front of Zelenskyy and has  insulted European democracies and the actions of their soldiers in previous wars. The Defence Secretary, Hegseth, clearly a moron, participated in leaked secret plans for a military strike in the Middle East on an unprotected online platform. An anti-European group chat of senior Trump Administration officials, oh, and the Editor-in-Chief of The Atlantic magazine by accident. Any resignations? No, just obfuscation and a wholly unfounded attack on the journalist to try and discredit him to hide the scandal.

Then we have Musk. In charge of DOGE (a new department to improve government efficiency – actually not a bad concept  if done properly), he is totally out of control. Randomly firing government employees, he bizarrely finds time to support far-right extremists across Europe.

Finally, we have a US President, yes, a US President, praising Russia and its leader Putin, threatening Canada and Greenland, insulting Europe, and planning to carve up Ukraine like Hitler and Chamberlain did with the Czechoslovakia Sudetenland or Stalin and Hitler did with Poland. This is not an exaggeration.  It is that serious.

The upside? Europe and other countries with clear democratic principles are uniting to manage their future without the US and possibly NATO. Long overdue.

Americans are either supportive of Trump or seemingly oblivious. The Democrats are impotent, hopelessly directionless, and wholly responsible for Trump’s victory.

The consequences of Trump’s actions are hard to contemplate. But one thing is for sure. The world is becoming an amoral marketplace with everything for sale. Democracy is scorned, and American voters should be ashamed of what is being done in their name.

What is the point of a Labour government?

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

In one word: competence. There has been such a shortage of it from UK governments in recent years that justifying this attribute would be enough.

What we don’t need is ideology. It led nowhere for Labour under Corbyn in Opposition and led the country over the cliff under Johnson/Cummings and Truss. Add in a lack of ideological compromise over EU membership, leading to Brexit, and the disaster of such an approach is clear.

Competence over ideology should be the point of this Labour government

In recent times, perhaps only Margaret Thatcher made ideology work. But she was competent, the country was badly off course, and her free market ideology often cloaked a good deal of compromise.

Over the pond, Trump, with his tariffs, DOGE, and embrace of strongmen/billionaires, represents a sort of anti-democratic philosophy that may also take his Administration over a cliff. One hopes so, although the consequence of Europe having to finally stand up for its own defence provides some compensation.

But back to the Labour government. It seems to be gradually finding its feet, and not just in international relations. Only Labour can reform the NHS and benefits system free from the charge of hard-hearted malice. Tackling unsustainable disability benefits and stripping the not fit for purpose NHS of some of its bureaucracy by abolishing NHS England is a good start to proving its ideological flexibility.

Prior to that, cutting the international aid budget to pay for increases in defence expenditure again strikes a blow for practicality over principle. Labour from the centre-left got away with it lightly. Even the Tories could not disagree.

Governing is messy. Unpredictable events drive the best laid plans off course. Competing priorities means good government has to compromise. Competence is everything, and that alone will dictate voters’ impressions of whether Starmer and co. deserve a second term.

There is so much more to do. Further NHS reform, changes to the planning system, initiatives to make the civil service and local government more efficient are all badly needed and now. This government needs to go further and faster but not with the burden of ideological certainty.

My betting today is that Labour will win the next election with an increased share of the vote but a sharply reduced majority. This is a similar prediction to that made by Jacob Rees-Mogg at a Spectator magazine meeting I attended! We shall see, but in the face of such hopeless Tory Opposition, they should do.

Today, it feels like a successful Labour government is the only barrier to highly damaging polarised politics washing up on our shores.

Populism always self-destructs in the end but it may take a while…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The very nature of populism contains the seeds of its self-destruction. It is led by individuals who don’t care about their voters and who are usually incompetent at governing. But, most importantly, populism is based on conflicting aims. It is the latter which does for it in the end. The only problem is how much cumulative damage is done when populist regimes are in power. It can be a while before they are found out.

Waiting for populism to have its comeuppance will take patience…

But please indulge me. Let’s start with an amusing little theatrical performance from Reform UK. They have struck a nerve with the electorate in the UK and are (were) ahead in the opinion polls. The only problem is their 5 MPs are falling out spectacularly. Some guy called Rupert Lowe, MP for Great Yarmouth, has just attacked Farage’s leadership only to be stripped of the whip due to allegations of bullying and threatening the Party Chair, Zia Yusuf. He has been offered the chance to form a new far-right party with ex-Brexit Party MEP Ben Habib, who also fell out with Farage. Elon Musk was a fan of Lowe versus Farage, apparently, and that is probably at the heart of this dispute. Meanwhile, and more importantly, Reform UK have been forced into silence due to their support of Donald Trump, who is deeply unpopular in the UK. The US, under his leadership, is no longer even seen as an ally of the West according to the latest opinion polls despite a potential Ukraine peace deal – on what terms?). Oh dear. This all might be short-term turbulence for Reform, but it confirms this blog’s opinion that the party has a natural ceiling of support, which is lower than most observers think.

Anyway, on to the populist with real power, Donald Trump. He, too, is beginning to hit turbulence, although still hugely popular with his core base. Tariffs may really hurt the ordinary American voter soon and that is reflected in the worse period for the US stock market since 2022 with Tesla losing 15% alone. The latter is beginning to feel like a bitcoin investment. US inflation and therefore interest rates may well end up higher and growth lower as a result of Trump’s policies although currently he doesn’t seem to care. We shall see.

Elsewhere domestically, more conflicted aims are appearing. A purge of immigrants will hit higher house building, an election promise of Trump. A move away from climate related policies will challenge the US lead in green technology. The unelected, unaccountable Elon Musk is causing chaos in government departments. When even toilet attendants in national parks are a target to be fired, let alone the threat to the existence of national parks themselves, how will the average voter feel? Walking away from vaccination policies is already contributing to a measles surge in Texas. The list goes on, and, increasingly, Democrat run states will simply absorb the role of federal government themselves.

The law of unintended consequences is also washing across the globe. In threatening Canada not only through tariffs but more broadly, it has partly led to the departure of Canada’s PM, Justin Trudeau, to be replaced by an even more determined opponent of Trump, Mark Carney, the former Bank of England governor. The Liberals are surging in the polls versus the mildly pro-Trump Conservatives who were a shoo-in in an Autumn election. Canada is now distinctly hostile to the US.

Over in Europe, countries are getting their act together on defence to support Ukraine with the wider aim of neutralising a disengaged US, which might even leave NATO. To be fair, peace is back on the US/Ukraine agenda, but it is very early days, and the US has to prove it can bully Russia, too. European powers have to be polite towards the US for now to buy time, but this might not last as the US remains an unreliable partner at best. For the UK, it smooths the path to greater European integration. Thank you, President Trump.

All this makes the US seemingly aligned with strongmen Presidents Xi and Putin, which might be what an out of control Trump administration wants. US opinion polls are, however, particularly hostile towards Russia. Combine this with a worsening economic backdrop and natural democratic allies preparing to walk away from the US, and the long-term impact for Americans could be disastrous.

Trump is surely at peak power, and his populist legacy may not last beyond him outside diehard MAGA supporters. How much damage is done and how quickly it is noticed will be key to his tenure along with Democrats getting their act together. Don’t hold your breath. It may all take a while even if populist self-destruction happens in the end.

In the face of adversity, Starmer comes into his own…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

I am not a Labour supporter, but I have always liked Starmer. Why?

First, and wisely, he doesn’t rely on charisma. Politics is not a game, and we are all tired of dishonest, charismatic personalities who are fundamentally incompetent, and that is only in the UK… Starmer is solid, serious, uncharismatic, and ideologically flexible. He held a big job successfully as Director of Public Prosecutions and, despite an uncertain start, now seems to be applying those skills to the role of PM.

After an uncertain start, Starmer seems to be finding his feet and that should be a relief to everyone…

Second, let’s explore that ideological flexibility. Life is too complex and too chaotic to assume a set ideology provides answers in all scenarios. Needs must. Starmer, only elected in 2015, is certainly centre-left but no idealogue. He supported Corbyn out of necessity whilst maintaining support for membership of the EU. He promptly ran for the leadership, promising to continue Corbyn’s policies before ditching them after victory. He suspended Corbyn from the Labour Party on the issue of anti-semitism. In office, he cut the winter fuel allowance, will tackle sickness benefits, and has slashed foreign aid to support an increased defence budget.

He is also ruthless. He fired Sue Gray, his chief of staff, for failing to get the politics right. He dismissed his Transport Secretary for misdemeanours he knew about when appointing her and failed to appoint his long-standing Shadow Cabinet colleague, Emily Thornberry, to any ministerial post for reasons unknown. Apparently, he doesn’t like the tittle tattle of ordinary politics and is not particularly clubbable. Good!

Starmer’s government has taken unpopular economic decisions, some of which are a mistake by sticking to past rash fiscal promises. But they were taken early in his administration. He is moving closer to the EU generally but cautiously and now takes the lead on Ukraine, treading a careful line between his allies and a rogue US presidency which makes the US in all but name a former ally. The latest act by Trump of suspending aid to Ukraine is, quite frankly, incredible and a waste of all the financial support the US previously provided.

He seems to be finding his feet, has four more years, and should make the most of this stability. In such an uncertain world with such little choice in domestic politics, we must hope Starmer, and his government succeed.