I was going to use the term ‘cognitive dissonance’ but it hardly resonates in a title to a blog… and it refers to when a person holds two contradictory ideas at the same time. It is not strictly relevant in that Trump doesn’t have a philosophical drive and won’t have thought anything through. The phrase, however, does imply that failing to resolve such contradictions can lead to irrational decision-making. Umm… Perhaps it is the right term after all.
Flickers of optimism as the next four years are likely to be about grift not protofascism…
Trump is threatening sweeping tariffs against China, Canada and Mexico, reversing the trade agreement with the latter two countries signed during Trump’s first presidency. As we know, he also wants to expel undocumented immigrants too. Here are some contradictions:
- There is a housing shortage in the US. Trump has promised to build, build, build. But an irritating fact for him is that one in four construction workers are undocumented immigrants. Expelling them will undermine one key policy objective whilst meeting a parallel promise.
- Most independent economists believe tariffs will add 3-4% to domestic inflation. Trump has promised to reduce the cost of living and something will have to give.
The contradictions will multiply so the question, you might ask, is will Trump’s picks for Cabinet have a restraining influence? I doubt it. All have been nominated by showing total loyalty to Trump, in some cases reversing past views as required. There are few even relative moderates (perhaps Marc Rubio and Michael Waltz in foreign affairs) and Trump is unlikely to listen to his ‘colleagues’ consistently or even at all. Trump hates Washington, is totally reliant on his own self-belief, and has flooded Congress with scandal-ridden nominees to challenge the system. The alleged sex trafficker, Michael Gaetz as Attorney General, was a dare too far and Pete Hegseth at Defense may be another one but, regardless, it will be a partially anarchistic Cabinet showing total fealty to their President.
So, how will it all play out? Too early to tell, of course, but the hope is chaos reigns and little gets done and/or Trump simply loses interest two years in and goes (possibly mentally) AWOL. Green initiatives to manage climate change, for example, particularly in the face of an oil glut will outlive Trump. As a colleague commented, the next four years will be about grift not protofascism as Trump and his friends line their pockets.
You can probably give up on moderate Republicans so the real secret to a happier longer-term future is the Democrats. They will have to get their act together, stand for something meaningful in the eyes of potential core voters and develop potential presidential candidates with charisma and gravitas in the process. Today, that seems a long shot.
There are flickers of optimism, but Trump will have the upper hand for some time. Oh dear indeed…
Inside Right Politics 