The result was almost a foregone conclusion before the first votes were counted. Reality triumphed over hope.
Polls have been showing for weeks that Harris’s lead was narrowing generally and amongst ethnic minority voters in particular. Evidence, against the grain, that Republicans were voting early in large numbers was also a body blow to Democrats. Only Trump’s dark rhetoric in the closing days gave grounds for optimism for those who felt positivity would win it for the Vice-President.
Trump’s victory was a triumph of reality over hope…
Then, in the early hours of this morning, exit polls at both a state and national level showed immigration and the economy were the leading issues of concern. 70 per cent of those polled believed the US was heading in the wrong direction. Very bad for incumbents.
Further evidence for geeks of voting trends came later in the evening from a breakdown of ballots cast in the increasingly right-wing state of Florida. Trends were all ominously heading in the wrong direction in previously hugely safe Democrat counties.
It was going to be a long night for the Democrats.
To add insult to injury, Republicans are likely to hold both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Even the unpopular Ted Cruz in Texas held his seat easily. Trump unchecked is now a scary possibility.
Perhaps America was not ready for a black female president from California, but with abortion also being a key issue, this doesn’t feel quite right.
Harris had nothing to say on immigration, failing to spell out the details of a belated measure to curb immigration blocked in Congress to protect Trump. She had little to say on the economy either, failing to recognise, however unfairly, the need to distance herself from Biden. She was simply too woolly in the face of belligerent voters, not an accusation you could level at Trump. As Janan Ganesh said in the FT, voters knew exactly what they were voting for with Trump, not with Harris.
The US now feels like a very right-wing country, following a trend in Western democracies generally. Trump could do untold damage to the fabric of democracy there and drive illiberal reforms aided by partisan judicial appointments. Tyrants globally could be rewarded by the new Administration with Ukraine literally sold to Russia. Then there is the unaccountable influence of some billionaires generally on US public life…
The UK is now an outlier of centrist politics. Moderate and therefore increasingly lonely. Our influence on the world stage may be small, but we should still be very grateful indeed for what we have.
Inside Right Politics 