Month: November 2024

Fundamental contradictions at the heart of Trump’s policies

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

I was going to use the term ‘cognitive dissonance’ but it hardly resonates in a title to a blog… and it refers to when a person holds two contradictory ideas at the same time. It is not strictly relevant in that Trump doesn’t have a philosophical drive and won’t have thought anything through. The phrase, however, does imply that failing to resolve such contradictions can lead to irrational decision-making. Umm… Perhaps it is the right term after all.

Flickers of optimism as the next four years are likely to be about grift not protofascism…

Trump is threatening sweeping tariffs against China, Canada and Mexico, reversing the trade agreement with the latter two countries signed during Trump’s first presidency. As we know, he also wants to expel undocumented immigrants too. Here are some contradictions:

  • There is a housing shortage in the US. Trump has promised to build, build, build. But an irritating fact for him is that one in four construction workers are undocumented immigrants. Expelling them will undermine one key policy objective whilst meeting a parallel promise.
  • Most independent economists believe tariffs will add 3-4% to domestic inflation. Trump has promised to reduce the cost of living and something will have to give.

The contradictions will multiply so the question, you might ask, is will Trump’s picks for Cabinet have a restraining influence? I doubt it. All have been nominated by showing total loyalty to Trump, in some cases reversing past views as required. There are few even relative moderates (perhaps Marc Rubio and Michael Waltz in foreign affairs) and Trump is unlikely to listen to his ‘colleagues’ consistently or even at all. Trump hates Washington, is totally reliant on his own self-belief, and has flooded Congress with scandal-ridden nominees to challenge the system. The alleged sex trafficker, Michael Gaetz as Attorney General, was a dare too far and Pete Hegseth at Defense may be another one but, regardless, it will be a partially anarchistic Cabinet showing total fealty to their President.

So, how will it all play out? Too early to tell, of course, but the hope is chaos reigns and little gets done and/or Trump simply loses interest two years in and goes (possibly mentally) AWOL. Green initiatives to manage climate change, for example, particularly in the face of an oil glut will outlive Trump. As a colleague commented, the next four years will be about grift not protofascism as Trump and his friends line their pockets.

You can probably give up on moderate Republicans so the real secret to a happier longer-term future is the Democrats. They will have to get their act together, stand for something meaningful in the eyes of potential core voters and develop potential presidential candidates with charisma and gravitas in the process. Today, that seems a long shot.

There are flickers of optimism, but Trump will have the upper hand for some time. Oh dear indeed…

Moderate Americans resigned to a Hard Right future…

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

As I head back to London from NYC, my week over here has confirmed Trump is running rampant. This time he is also well organised. With a clean sweep of Congress politics is moving to the extremes confirmed by Trump’s Cabinet post picks which are quite frankly extraordinary. Here are just a few of them:

Kristi Noem – Homeland Security Secretary. Famed for boasting about shooting her dog in a recent auto-biography, she is as hard right as you could get and will have sweeping powers to deport.

Pete Hegseth – Defense Secretary barring an alleged sexual harassment case. A former Fox News host and army veteran, he believes women should have no combat role.

Matt Gaetz – Attorney General. This appointment has shocked even Trump supporters. He is facing allegations of sex crimes, is in favour of defunding the FBI and would literally destroy legal structures in the US. Uniformly loathed, many people didn’t even know he had any legal qualifications.

Elon Musk/Vivek Ramaswamy – joint heads of a newly created Department of Government Efficiency. The latter, former Republican nominee contender is just ridiculous, and Musk with billions in government contracts can’t move without tripping over a potential conflict of interest.

The list goes on. A fracking champion in charge of energy, an anti-vaxxer in charge of health, and a Putin sympathiser in charge of the intelligence agencies…

Politics is going to get very ugly here but America voted for it…

Trump’s intentions are clear. There will be no safe guards in place to rein him in. The only modest bright spot is John Thune winning the leadership of the Senate. An establishment Republican, he might bring some sanity to proceedings, but bearing in mind Trump will lead by terrorising any opposition, one doubts it.

The agenda is set, and America voted for it. Mass deportations, the slate of all Trump’s legal woes wiped clean, massive tax cuts with the rich getting richer, environmental regulations torn up, and vendettas pursued against any perceived enemy of Trump. Overseas, Ukraine sold out, Taiwan under greater threat, Israel allowed to run rampant and tariffs ending global free trade, in the process driving up inflation. Oh, and the Trump family and its allies preening themselves with their noses firmly in the public trough. Politics is going to get very ugly here.

As for the Democrats, their defeat is entirely their fault. Too much noise about identity politics, failing to grip illegal immigration, extremists within their ranks undermining law and order by stripping the police of powers and/or funds such as in San Francisco. Despite Biden’s decency and some policy successes, in the campaign they had nothing to say to those who should have been their core voting base. Add to that Biden stepping down too late to allow a competitive race for the Democratic nominee, and their defeat was sealed. Patronising interventions from former Democrat presidents and ridiculous endorsements from celebrities as a substitute for policy hardly helped either.

Grounds for optimism? For all the Republicans’ success, this country is pretty much split 50/50 in vote share. Hard right MAGA extremists are only polling at 6%. The rest of Trump supporters are mostly just frustrated with government and, often, rightly so. Such is the scale of the Democrats’ defeat, they must surely reform themselves. The last president to shrink the size of government was actually Clinton, who took 400,000 off the government payroll so they can change their spots. Trump only has 4 years left and may blow up well before then. Musk is already rubbing people up the wrong way, and some nominations are even shocking core Republican supporters.

Lastly, as I gladly return to London, for all of Labour’s faults, with the rise of the populist Right across democracies, the UK looks a bastion of stability and must surely embrace closer European integration… so, not all bad then…

Trump’s clarity of message won him the presidency

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The result was almost a foregone conclusion before the first votes were counted. Reality triumphed over hope.

Polls have been showing for weeks that Harris’s lead was narrowing generally and amongst ethnic minority voters in particular. Evidence, against the grain, that Republicans were voting early in large numbers was also a body blow to Democrats. Only Trump’s dark rhetoric in the closing days gave grounds for optimism for those who felt positivity would win it for the Vice-President.

Trump’s victory was a triumph of reality over hope…

Then, in the early hours of this morning, exit polls at both a state and national level showed immigration and the economy were the leading issues of concern. 70 per cent of those polled believed the US was heading in the wrong direction. Very bad for incumbents.

Further evidence for geeks of voting trends came later in the evening from a breakdown of ballots cast in the increasingly right-wing state of Florida. Trends were all ominously heading in the wrong direction in previously hugely safe Democrat counties.

It was going to be a long night for the Democrats.

To add insult to injury, Republicans are likely to hold both the Senate and the House of Representatives.  Even the unpopular Ted Cruz in Texas held his seat easily. Trump unchecked is now a scary possibility.

Perhaps America was not ready for a black female president from California, but with abortion also being a key issue, this doesn’t feel quite right.

Harris had nothing to say on immigration, failing to spell out the details of a belated measure to curb immigration blocked in Congress to protect Trump. She had little to say on the economy either, failing to recognise, however unfairly, the need to distance herself from Biden. She was simply too woolly in the face of belligerent voters, not an accusation you could level at Trump. As Janan Ganesh said in the FT, voters knew exactly what they were voting for with Trump, not with Harris.

The US now feels like a very right-wing country, following a trend in Western democracies generally. Trump could do untold damage to the fabric of democracy there and drive illiberal reforms aided by partisan judicial appointments.  Tyrants globally could be rewarded by the new Administration with Ukraine literally sold to Russia. Then there is the unaccountable influence of some billionaires generally on US public life…

The UK is now an outlier of centrist politics. Moderate and therefore increasingly lonely. Our influence on the world stage may be small, but we should still be very grateful indeed for what we have.

Stop moaning. There were no surprises in Labour’s budget…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

And that is not just because most of it was leaked in advance…

What an earth did commentators think Labour was going to do? It was obvious from the start of this government, hidden by all parties during the General Election, that better public services or even maintaining them as they are would involve higher taxes.

Few options, few surprises…

It was a brave (many might say high risk) budget. Nobody likes higher taxes, but the shortfall in public finances merited them.

Asset price inflation after years of quantitative easing has made many people better off than perhaps they expected. The last few years exacerbated by inflation have made it tough for those at the bottom of the ladder. Add in covid and the impact of the Ukraine war, and there was always going to be a reckoning.

The Tories should never have cut employees’ NI, and now employers have to make up the difference. It is quite simply a tax on jobs, and this is where this blog parts company with the government. All parties blather on about small businesses being the backbone of the economy, yet both parties have stuffed them in recent years. Labour shouldn’t have boxed themselves in and reversed the Tories’ cut. Both parties are as bad as each other.

However, one hopes the Chancellor sticks to her guns and keeps the budget intact from whinging pressure groups. The pain might as well be felt now.

The real reckoning is whether the government spends its revenues competently, whether economic growth accelerates accordingly, and whether there is room to cut taxes selectively in 4 years’ time against the backdrop of improving public services.

Umm… We had better hope Labour succeeds because there are few alternatives. The Tories will be weak opponents. In the most inconsequential election of the year, they will almost certainly vote Kemi Badenoch as Leader tomorrow and the odds of her surviving  through to the next election are only a little lower than Labour getting the economy right.

Fingers crossed, but Hobson’s choice indeed.