Returning from 24 hours at the Tory Annual Conference, I am adjusting to life back on earth. Party conferences are always slightly surreal due to die-hard activists gathering in one security cordoned space, but this one was particularly strange.
It was not too poorly attended, and most people had a spring in their step. The prevailing view was that the Labour government was blowing up and, with the right leader, the Tories would be back in charge within four years. Umm… Wiser heads know better including some Tory inclined journalists I spoke to. In denial that power is almost certainly 10 years’ away, they said reality would set in next year and the mood would be quite different. We shall see.
But back to the leadership issue. All four remaining candidates buzzed around the conference, flanked by groupies, excited they were the centre of so much attention. For three of them, it will be fleeting… They were given Q and A opportunities during the conference and then on the last day the chance to speak for 20 minutes. This part was expected to be make or break.
None of the above are likely to be the next Prime Minister…
It wasn’t really. Like much hyped presidential debates in the US, the speeches would have moved the dial only a little, at least at this stage. Remember the electorate is still 120 thoroughly unscrupulous MPs who would have largely made up their minds by now. The list is whittled down to two and only then does the membership have a say. The speeches were aimed at them.
All four performed well I thought although the content of speeches was mostly well delivered platitudes. But there were clear winners and losers relative to expectations. Robert Jenrick, the favourite, performed most poorly. A dark almost Trumpite speech with an obsession on immigration, it didn’t quite land. He wants the leadership almost too much and will be disappointed. Kemi Badenoch, once the favourite, performed solidly but no more than that relative to expectations. Badenoch’s problem was that she had had a bad conference in the run-up to her speech, getting embroiled in controversies such as levels of maternity pay which should have been avoided. The feeling amongst many is her ability to pick a fight with her own shadow may not be what you want in an opposition leader. Tom Tugendhat gave a good speech and is clearly a contender for a major role in a new shadow cabinet. His challenge is that he is a moderate. Need I say more…. The winner was the likeable James Cleverly who outperformed expectations to give a particularly well-received speech. He will be happy.
The conclusion? Cleverly may have done just enough to squeeze in to the last two and therefore perhaps his speech did matter. This will be at the expense of Tugendhat. So, it will be Cleverly versus Jenrick or Badenoch, probably the former. I could actually see Cleverly’s likeability getting him over the line.
But as a former Cabinet Minister said, none of the above will be the next Prime Minister and, as far as understanding that the bubble has yet to burst…
Inside Right Politics 