This seems a strange thing to say. Labour has run a relatively smooth election campaign so far. Starmer is looking confident, and the shadow front bench is campaigning competently. The tax issue has not blown up in their faces and the gap with the Tories remains at c20%.
And yet…, and yet… Labour’s share of the vote has been very slowly falling. Poll trackers have the party down from 45% to 41% and some more recent polls are recording figures below 40%. Labour has lost a little ground to Reform and the LibDems but remains so far ahead due to the Tories’ almost complete implosion.
Things look rosy for Labour now but could get very tricky very quickly after July 4th…
On the subject of the Tories, each week is the worst one since, well, the previous one and their ability to shoot themselves in the foot will become the stuff of legends. Today, having clung to the untenable position of not suspending candidates caught up in the election date betting scandal, the Tory Party under huge pressure has now withdrawn support from them. The worst of all worlds. A week of excruciating pain with their opponents honing arguments around Tory sleaze and a sense of entitlement, only for the Tories to throw in the towel at the last minute and abandon these sorry figures. Their campaign is the gift that keeps giving…
But back to Labour. The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) is excoriating about the ‘conspiracy of silence’ around both major parties’ spending plans. Significant cuts have been built into public service provision outside core areas such as the NHS and Education over the next few years and, for Labour, having ruled out NI, income tax and VAT increases, none of its other identified tax measures will close the gap sufficiently. The party is avoiding a discussion on capital gains tax increases for example and other initiatives to fund services by clinging to the mantra that ‘growth’ will float future ministers off the rocks. Quite a few more voters might think this is dishonest come next Thursday.
Labour will win next week in terms of seats and win handsomely but what about its mandate if its share of vote continues to fall? If it is forced to raise a host of taxes not outlined in its manifesto there will be uproar or at least a huge amount of cynicism. And that is before the new government explores other areas where there is that conspiracy of silence such as social care and closer alignment with the EU.
Why does this matter? It matters because life in government for Labour could get very tricky very quickly and if the new administration is perceived not to have a sufficient mandate to be radical, solutions open to it to solve the already formidable visible challenges (let alone the hidden ones) will be somewhat restricted. Disillusionment amongst voters towards the political class will be rife.
On the other hand, a massive majority in terms of seats courtesy of a crushed Tory Party might mean Labour, at least for now, really doesn’t care.
Inside Right Politics 