You have to give it to Rishi. He is a political risk taker. Bringing back Cameron whilst pleading change, cancelling HS2 to Manchester when in… Manchester, getting the government off people’s backs whilst banning smoking. It has worked so well so far… not.
So now the big election gamble. He announced the date in the rain, looking faintly ridiculous whilst also really irritating his colleagues with the surprise. Speaking to some Tory MPs, their mood is furious as their careers are cut short by four months for no perceivable election advantage.
Meanwhile, Starmer stood in a dry room draped in the British flag, looking like a slightly dull but competent PM in waiting.
An inauspicious start…
And yet, and yet… you never know. Elections can be unpredictable. Just ask Theresa May. But this election feels different. After 14 years in government when the Conservative Party has often conducted itself disgracefully, the desire for change is palpable.
And, outside campaign surprises, what will be the main themes that will shape the election? They are straight forward. The debate will centre on that theme of change versus the devil you know but, sadly, for the Tories, not the benefits of their economic stewardship.
As Sky News explained clearly yesterday, despite falling inflation, prices are still rising, and the cost of living has risen 20% during Sunak’s premiership. It will take much longer than 4th July to feel any improvement. Just look at Biden’s languishing poll ratings in the US where, despite a booming economy, the longer-term impact of rising prices still dictates the political narrative. Unlike Sunak, however, who has just closed the door on this option, at least the President has until November to turn things around and see off his opponent.
The public is heartedly sick of the Tories, and it won’t be the credibility of Labour that is at stake but the credibility of the Tories. Against this background, Starmer will win. Only the scale of victory is in doubt.
P.S. We have just heard that no flights will take off to Rwanda before the election. The timing of the election just gets worse for the Tories…
Inside Right Politics 