This blog does not plan to write about the tragic events in the Middle East. There are far more expert voices than this one. Although, one is curious to know more about the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, who is allegedly a billionaire living not in the Gaza Strip but Doha, Qatar, and why there have been no elections in the Gaza Strip since 2007.

On to three other topics of interest at least to the author:

The good – the election result in Poland

Poland’s opposition parties won enough seats in Sunday’s general election to take power from the Law and Justice (PiS) party which has ruled the country since 2015, confirmed by the National Electoral Commission on Tuesday morning. This is fantastic news. Poland was on a slippery slope to authoritarianism under the PiS, as it eroded the independence of the judiciary and the media. A record turnout of nearly 75% ensured its defeat with women, young people, City dwellers and moderates generally voting in droves. It repels the anti-EU, anti-migration, anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric of the PiS. Good riddance to them.

Stunning result for Donald Tusk, likely to be Poland’s next Prime Minister

The bad – India’s Supreme Court rejects same sex marriage

Earlier this week, the Indian Supreme Court rejected the applications of 21 petitioners, including same-sex couples, trans people and associations for freedom to marry. The judges considered that they were not empowered to make such a decision and referred this responsibility to Parliament, as the government had wanted.

The hopes of the LGBTQ+ community were high, as India’s highest court had issued a landmark ruling in 2018 decriminalizing homosexuality. It is unlikely that Prime Minister Modi will initiate more liberal laws on marriage or, indeed, the rights of same-sex couples to adopt children, as he is illiberal himself and has shown hostility to any such initiatives. The judges were split on a number of issues, however, and one hopes a change to India’s laws is only a matter of time.

The ugly – the election for Speaker of the House of Representatives in the US

The position remains vacant since hard-right Republicans ousted their own Kevin McCarthy recently. In pole position to take the role is the vile, pro-Trump Jim Jordan who has tried to bully colleagues into voting for him. He has failed twice, and his prospects are fading. Why does this matter? The House is essentially frozen without a Speaker in the midst of an international crisis and an imminent government shutdown over budgets. The Speaker is also third in-line to the Presidency. One hopes moderate Republicans finally discover their voice and prevail.

That’s it for now. UK politics is somewhat becalmed by consensus on the Middle East although there are some interesting by-elections today which will give further pointers to the likely outcome of a General Election.

Despite being overshadowed by the terrible events in the Middle East, this week’s conference in Liverpool was a successful one for the Labour Party.

A few aspects stood out. The conference was packed, speeches were delivered competently without faux pas, and there was a notable if slightly nervous buzz about imminent power around the corner. Quite a contrast with a gloomy, divided Tory conference completely wrong-footed by the HS2 announcement.

Second, the quality of Labour’s front bench is starting to become evident. Politics is healthier if it is not all about the leader, and Labour is starting to look like a government in waiting. You don’t have to like them to picture Yvette Cooper, Bridget Phillipson, Rachel Reeves, Wes Streeting et al in Cabinet, equally if not more competent than their Tory counterparts. It is not a bad thing if the Party is more popular than its leader either. Mind you, some grate already such as the patronising, rather erratic David Lammy but you can’t have it all.

Labour positively glittered in contrast to the Tories…

Two speeches particularly stood out. First, Rachel Reeves. Her speech was excellent and certainly cements a view she is a future leader of the Labour Party in waiting. Well-delivered, just about enough new announcements but, most of all, fiscally conservative enough to reassure voters.

Second was Keir Starmer’s speech. Certainly, he was helped by a demonstrator pouring glitter over him. A common criticism that he doesn’t sparkle enough was put to rest. He dealt with the incident well and delivered a strong oration.

Both leading figures talked about eliminating waste, pursuing tax fraud, freeing planning laws to build more homes, strengthening the NHS in a way which didn’t scare the horses.

The Labour Party conference will not be remembered for much due to the backdrop of tragic international events. The difference is that the Tories would probably rather wish their conference wasn’t remembered for much either…

We have had it all at the Conservative Party’s conference this week. Let’s just list a few of the ‘highlights’:

• The Home Secretary claimed multi-culturalism had failed, despite the background of her good self and…err…the Prime Minister. In a hard-hitting speech clearly aimed at future leadership ambitions, she warned of a ‘hurricane’ of millions of migrants coming to Britain and launched a further attack on British human rights law.
• Committed Tory, Andrew Boff, Chair of the London Assembly, was evicted from the Conference for quietly criticising Braverman’s comments on the LGBTQ+ community and, in particular, trans rights.
• Liz Truss repeated her mantra of unfunded tax cuts. Never really understanding what ‘growth’ means she was cheered on from the sidelines by the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Priti Patel and, yes, Nigel Farage, who Priti Patel was filmed dancing enthusiastically with later in the evening. According to the centrist, Tom Tugendhat, and indeed Rishi Sunak, there could always be a Conservative Party membership offer in the post to Farage… oh dear.
• Numerous Cabinet ministers and the PM himself invented Labour policies on a ‘meat tax’, re-cycling and Council restrictions on visiting shops in a post-truth, Trumpite world.
• Susan Hall, the third-rate Tory candidate for London’s mayor, implied the Jewish community felt threatened by the mayoralty of Labour’s Sadiq Kahn, a Muslim. This was later repudiated by no less than the Board of Deputies of British Jews.
• Sunak in his closing speech threw together a raft of policies from cancelling the Manchester leg of HS2 (no consultation with regional mayors including, Birmingham’s Tory mayor, Andy Street or, it seems, the Cabinet) to reforming A-levels and working up to a highly non-libertarian ban on smoking. A bold attempt to look decisive and throw off 13 years of Tory rule. It will provide dilemmas for Starmer but smacked of a desperate roll of the dice to close a 17% poll deficit.

Sunak, by default, the highest profile Tory moderate present in Manchester…

Not a vintage conference then for the Tories but where were the moderates? Who made the case for the failures of Brexit and building a closer relationship with the EU, particularly in the face of Russia’s threat on Europe’s borders? Who led packed out fringe meetings outlining the positives of immigration and tax cuts only when they can be afforded. Who headed off attacks from this now anti-establishment Party on institutions, including the judiciary?

The lunatics are truly taking over the asylum and moderates, lacking organisation, hamstrung by careerism and failing to offer a comprehensive centre-right agenda were nowhere to be seen. Last week, I attended a private dinner at which Rory Stewart spoke. The conversation was held under Chatham House rules but much of his horrified analysis was repeated on his podcast, The Rest Is Politics. He sees it as a 10 year project to drag the Tories back to the centre after yet one more lurch to the Right. One only hopes he is around to lead it, if it is not too late…

Now off to Liverpool to watch the Labour Party try and prove themselves…

You can never write the Tories off. Despite growing pessimism surrounding their prospects at the next general election, in the past week or so there have been flickers of recovery. Perhaps it is not 1997 after all or at least it is too early to tell.

Sunak hits the ground running in Manchester…

The reasons for this slight recovery in the Tories’ prospects are three-fold:

• Renewed energy from Sunak. There might not seem a coherent philosophy around mooted announcements (from diluting green measures to mostly banning smoking…) but Sunak is certainly active and his ‘defend the car measures’ have struck a nerve. How angry Starmer must be that London’s ULEZ scheme denied Labour victory in Uxbridge! It has given the Tories new heart as they create cultural divides and plays to the narrative that Labour would be a statist, heavy-handed, interfering government. The Conservative Party Conference has been more upbeat than expected so far despite interventions from the likes of Liz Truss, and economic news is gradually getting better for the government. The one misstep has been the rumoured dropping of HS2 to Manchester whilst the Conservatives were assembling in… Manchester but the damage has been less than expected so far.
• Changes of policy from Labour. Dropping a clear pledge of investing £28bn in a green economy, refusing to reverse Conservative measures announced to date on watering down green initiatives and refusing to increase taxes generally whilst wanting to spend more makes them seem shifty and insecure. Add to this, the additional diluting of their attack on private schools and pledges on workers’ rights and you start to wonder what Labour stands for. The charge that in office they will ‘revert to type’ is strong when a vacuum appears. Starmer will have to up his game at his conference with clear policy announcements and an offer of hope and optimism combined with competence.
• LibDems miss an open goal again… It was just as well their conference was poorly covered. Refusing to commit to rejoining the EU when everyone knows that’s their belief, refusing to discuss any informal pact with Labour even though we know that is the case and then, in countering that, falling out with Labour in the mid-Beds by-election which in the process could give the Tories an unexpected victory, all points to the usual amateur-hour of LibDem politics.

Opinion polls have the Labour Party’s lead narrowing slightly. It may be too late for the Tories, and there are many obstacles ahead, but their ruthless focus on maintaining power is second to none. It had better go well for the Opposition next week as it gathers in Liverpool…