Tories flail as ideological divides grow

If you thought Brexit was bad enough for the unity of the Tory Party, then that was only the start…

This week we have seen the ludicrous, thick-skinned Liz Truss defend her economic record, citing tax cuts and the defenestration of the ‘political and economic establishment’ and ‘institutional bureaucracy’ as a way to grow the economy. Basically, it was an attack on Rishi Sunak. What her speech failed to acknowledge was that unfunded tax cuts, no market preparation, or independent analysis of their impact simply don’t work in an inter-dependent global economy. Thatcher would be turning in her grave as a steward of economic competence… and so much for ‘take back control’. As an ex-EU member, we will never have any more freedom over economic policy making.

And why do politicians of all parties focus on ‘growth’ as if it were a one word nirvana to happiness? It only displays ignorance of what the complexities of achieving growth really mean. It is never a straightforward route on its own for enhancing standards of living.

Tactical or strategic? More confusion in the Tory Party

Yesterday, we had more splits as elements of the Right of the Party flex their muscles. The competent Sunak seems to have been bounced, at least on timing, into announcing the watering down of commitments for achieving net zero. I wonder how Sunak equates this with securing the future of the next generation? Not one of the measures will make an ounce of difference to the living standards of voters today. It is simply about creating a cultural divide with Labour. But, at what cost?

Other elements of the Tory Party are furious. Many feel the announcement is both wrong, chaotic, with little if no electoral benefit. It smacks of a government in its final death throws. Ironically, much of the car industry is furious too. Participants want a clear legislative framework in which to make their long-term investment plans, and this has just tripped them up.

The Tory Party is split essentially into three groups; moderates, mostly on the backfoot for a generation; the libertarian Right, mostly in the ascendency, and the traditional, socially conservative, authoritarian Right who are stooges of libertarians when needed to shore up their dominance. Sometimes, the divided Right unites on fundamentals like Brexit, for example (but not immigration), but mostly their aim is to get rid of moderates. Easy, really, as they rarely show backbone and are not in tune with today’s grassroots.

Time for the scrapping Tories to sort out their divisions in private, free from the constraints of office and long-term policy making.

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Tories damned by latest YouGov poll…

It has not been a good start to the political season for the Tories. The concrete debacle in schools plays directly into Labour’s narrative and voter concerns more generally that the country just isn’t working under this government. The problem for the Tories is that after 14 years in power, however unfair on some issues, there is nowhere left for them to hide.

But this morning’s YouGov poll outlined in The Times is the most startling confirmation yet of the Tories’ decline. This blog is being written whilst travelling, so no images, I am afraid, but what could capture these results…?

Over half the public will not contemplate voting Conservative at the next election. The Conservative Party is seen as just too right wing on all major issues, specifically public service spending. Only on transgender rights and illegal migration is there some alignment, but these are not priorities for the electorate.

Sunak is the most competent PM since a pre-Brexit Cameron, but he seems not to be resonating with the electorate. Only 26% think he is doing a good job, and he has a terrible approval rating of minus 41% capped only by the Tories’ approval rating of minus 48%. Starmer is in smaller negative territory but is less popular than his party. Ironically, that is not a bad place to be.

Labour is starting to feel like a government in waiting and with a few positive policy announcements, could clean up at the next election. 2024 is certainly starting to feel like 1997, even if there is not the same enthusiasm as there was for Blair.

As for the Conservative Party, it needs to move towards the centre. If the siren voices of its right-wing prevail, it is game over for a generation.

No wonder the civil service ‘blob’ are in control

So, there we have it. The tiniest of Cabinet reshuffles caused by Ben Wallace stepping down as Defence Secretary. He is replaced by Grant Shapps who takes up his 5th, yes 5th, Cabinet job in the last 12 months. Widely considered a lightweight by his colleagues and without any relevant Defence experience, he is nevertheless seen as a good communicator. Forget about the Ukraine war. He got the job apparently because Sunak didn’t want one of his better spokespeople bogged down at Energy when he reneges on some of his green policies to exacerbate a cultural war with Labour.

Grant Shapps and his dizzying change of roles…

And you wonder why people despair of politics?

The Civil Service often directs government in individual departments simply in the absence of any knowledgeable ministers who have an agenda and stick around. Of course, reshuffles are part of a Prime Minister’s armoury but not to the extent of the chaos of recent years. The Tories’ record has been lamentable.

Here are just a few statistics on the number of office holders in key posts since 2019:

  • Chancellor: 5
  • Home secretary: 4
  • Housing secretary: 4
  • Health secretary: 4
  • Business/Energy secretary: 5
  • Education secretary: 6
  • Northern Ireland: 4
  • Trade: Role 3

How can this lead to decent long-term policy making? How on earth can ministers keep up to speed with the detail of their latest role and provide stable leadership in their departments? Political expediency is everything now, more than ever before if you look at comparable statistics of ministerial turnover going further back. And the public notice, becoming wearier and more cynical with each change.

Overwhelmed by Brexit, then Covid and a merry-go-round of ministers, the Civil Service, for all its faults, one suspects is often just trying to keep the show on the road. It is not so much the ‘blob’, just the professional arm of government.