All of us agree, I am sure, that illegal immigration should be sharply curbed. The cruel trafficking of often vulnerable people to the UK’s shores via small boats and lorries is heart-breaking. It is a scourge of modern life and an issue for all of Europe.

Immigration may not be the vote winner Tories think it is…

However, even if one doubts the legitimacy of some asylum seekers, it is another issue to use a tone of language and introduce policies that, even tangentially, encourage racism. Our lovely Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, is certainly guilty of that. Using phrases over recent months such as ‘an invasion on our southern coast’ and ‘waves of illegal immigrants breaching our border’ supported by a ludicrous figure of 100 million is inflammatory to say the least.

The picture of Braverman laughing in Rwanda is also chilling. Exporting illegal immigrants to a country with a dubious human rights record is an ugly policy, and no government minister should be pleased with it, even if they think such measures are a necessity. Should the courts allow such flights, the policy hardly seems to make much of a difference either, with a current capacity of 200.

Housing illegal immigrants in barracks and on boats is another example of dog whistle politics, attempting to appease Red Wall voters and the hard right generally, two groups that, in reality, have little in common. Add to that, nimbies who live near barracks talking of their fears of potentially dangerous people being housed nearby and it all feels deeply uncomfortable for a humane country. Government rhetoric is partly the reason for it.

Under Sunak, we are now finally pursuing a policy of cooperation with the EU which, of course, particularly in relation to France, is the only solution to sorting illegal immigration in the longer-term. Theresa May knew this years ago.

In the meantime, if the Tories keep pursuing a ‘nasty party’ approach to the issue of ‘small boats’, it may well rebound on them. Labour’s opinion poll lead is still very wide, and they must be clear favourites at the next election. Even voters who dislike immigration generally might find it within themselves to swerve away from the Tories’ approach and focus on other issues. If, for nothing else, to protect their conscience.

This week, as I sit in New York, the US and UK seem mirror images of each other politically with regard to the treatment of their former leaders.

Over here, rumours abound that Donald Trump is about to be arrested over hush money payments to the porn star, Stormy Daniels. Apparently, he wants to be dragged to court in handcuffs to galvanise his fan base. Pink fluffy ones, I guess… You couldn’t write the script. News channels are full of it, but surely the most ardent Trump supporters must be getting tired of the soap opera. His rival, DeSantis, is playing it brilliantly, sort of highlighting bias against Trump whilst citing he can’t speak about the details due to inexperience of paying hush money to porn stars…Trump is furious!

Of course, Trump faces much more serious legal challenges, not least from the State of Georgia for allegedly trying to illegally influence the 2020 presidential vote. His opponents wish this was the first confirmed court case since sleeping with prostitutes and paying them off is sort of priced in with Trump.

Then, over to the UK, where Boris Johnson testified in front of the Commons’ Privileges Committee for allegedly misleading Parliament on parties in Downing Street during the Covid pandemic when the rest of us were in lockdown.

Watching Johnson’s testimony, he was very testy and defensive, and, frankly, unbelievable. I was particularly struck by the hostility of questioning from Tory members of the committee. Meanwhile, simultaneously, a vote on Sunak’s new Northern Ireland agreement with the EU passed easily in the Commons despite former PMs, Johnson’s and Truss’s opposition. It has been a good week for Sunak.

Both Johnson and Trump, populists who have always treated the truth with carelessness, are getting their just deserts and there is a growing sense they are busted flushes. Their influence is waning and those who believe in upholding standards in public life should rest easier this week.

More evidence that the Tories are getting their act together or at least their leadership is. This was a solid, sometimes compassionate budget with well trailed measures on devolution, pensions, energy costs, and childcare.

In particular, it is a laudable aim to get more people into the workforce as the over 50s go awol. There are many deeply unhelpful longer-term consequences of the Covid pandemic, and this is one of them. It undermines productivity, tax revenues and creates labour shortages, which ultimately are inflationary. Let alone the consideration of the health benefits of staying active…

Tories back on form…

However, longer-term problems remain unaddressed as a General Election looms, and a now competent Tory administration runs out of time. There was an interesting article in this weekend’s Sunday Times about the lamentable management by Whitehall of the nation’s major infrastructure projects. Examples of poor stewardship, notably HS2 and an NHS IT system unfit for purpose, are manifest. Apparently, there are 235 major projects costing £678 billion underway, and only 24 are on time and on budget. Yet there are no solutions to improving any of this, which is a major additional barrier to sorting our productivity problem.

And then there is the issue of dealing with the UK’s finances for the long-term. We failed to invest when interest rates were low and now have no money. Conventional Treasury orthodoxy (Truss actually had a fair point here) dominates. We also still hand too many tax breaks to the rich.

It is hugely sensible to lift the cap on pensions saving to encourage more older participants into the workforce, but why hand out tax breaks at the highest marginal tax rates? Even George Osborne wanted to do something on this. Then, the triple lock on old age pensions, which, generationally, deflects an efficient allocation of scarce capital.

Meanwhile, a 6 per cent rise in corporation tax will damage small businesses, particularly service sector ones with little need for capital expenditure.

Tory voter bias continues to rule but this country requires radical, more centrist solutions to fully rejuvenate the economy after the self-inflicted wounds of Brexit and an erratic fiscal policy. It will be the next government’s job, and today, unfortunately for Sunak, it probably won’t be Tory.