A long, long time ago, the 1992 General Election actually, I was a young Conservative Parliamentary Candidate standing in a slightly marginal Labour held seat in SE London. I didn’t actually want to be an MP, just putting a marker down for the future. It seemed a fairly safe bet I wouldn’t be elected. Thatcher had been defenestrated, Major was untested and after 13 years of divisive Tory rule, Labour were riding high.
Well, the Conservative Party against all expectations, won. I lost but not, gulp, by much. Tories, in focusing on the economy and voter concerns about the quality of the Labour leader, Neil Kinnock, were given another turbulent five years.
Fast forward to 1997, and a hopelessly divided Conservative Party, practically ungovernable, was wiped out by the charismatic Tony Blair.
Changing fortunes in the 1990s…
On this spectrum, where are we today? Well, the Tories are ungovernable, divided on everything from Europe (again!) to immigration and house building targets to name but a few issues. If it wasn’t so serious, with almost comic timing, they are on their fifth leader in six years. Sunak is the new competent, technocratic PM, but has little authority over a party riven by factions.
Labour are 25% ahead in the polls and have just walked the Chester by-election. It looks game over for the Tories. Tory MPs have to confirm whether they are standing again by fifth December, and several are voting with their feet and going including some in their 30s and 40s.
And yet, and yet…the Tories have drawn level again on the economy in some polls despite the disaster of Truss’s short reign and doubts still remain about what Keir Starmer stands for.
On balance, it feels more like 1997 than 1992 simply because the Tories have made such a mess of things. Sunak has come along too late to be their saviour and the Conservative Party internally is in a terrible state. The wider front bench of the Labour Party appears competent and Starmer has more gravitas than Kinnock could ever muster.
But doubts still persist about the outcome of the General Election likely to be in 2024. Labour have to win an incredible 124 seats to gain an overall majority. It may come as a surprise to many, but it is not quite game over for the Tories.
Inside Right Politics 