Rishi Sunak has brought sanity back to the Tory Party. Confident, competent, technocratic even, he believes in sound money and, internationally, strong relationships with allies including the EU. He has had his hands tied with some of his Cabinet choices, but this will not last for long. His problem, however, is that his premiership has come too late.

Much ammunition to use against the Government

After 12 years of Tory government including five years of severe austerity, this clever, but thoroughly miserable Autumn statement ushers in a ‘back to the future’ moment. More austerity as the economy heads into recession, inflation north of 10% and plenty of cuts. Rightly, the Government cannot give in to excessive public sector pay claims but there will be months of public sector strife with strikes and periods of working to rule. Despite generous uplifts in the minimum wage, pensions and benefits, there will be little to gain politically as voters feel quality of life experiences deteriorating. Living standards are expected to fall by a record 7%.

Admittedly, many of the forces creating economic mayhem are global, notably the legacy of Covid and the impact of the Ukraine war, but that is not sufficient cover.

Starkly, the US economy is 4.2% larger than pre-Covid, the EU zone 2.1% larger, the UK 0.7% smaller. A devastating article in the FT today highlights that the NHS spends a fifth less per capita than similar European countries. Then there is Brexit which has hit trade hard. This week, former Environment Secretary, George Eustace, describes a post-Brexit trade treaty with Australia, for example, as ‘not a very good deal’ despite praising it at the time. According to the Office of Budget Responsibility, trade as a share of GDP has fallen 12 per cent since 2019, two and a half times more than in any other G7 country and it expects the longer-term impact of Brexit to affect trade intensity by some 15%. Only a third of voters now believe Brexit was a good idea.

Finally, an interest rate premium from the fallout of Trussonomics with rising interest rates wiping out many of the gains from subsidising energy bills for those on flexible rate mortgages.

There does not seem much to show from a Tory government in power since 2010 with five different Prime Ministers. A good one at the end is unlikely to erase voters’ memories.

And then to Labour. So much to attack but what is different now is that despite the blandness of Keir Starmer, they have an impressive front bench. First amongst equals is Rachel Reeves, Shadow Chancellor, and she laid into the Government with forensic detail today whether it be weaknesses in energy policy, stealth taxes or the failure of windfall taxes on energy companies due to offset allowances. At the say time, Labour are carefully laying the ground to ensnare Sunak in all the policy choices (mistakes) of the last few years.

It is said Oppositions rarely win General Elections; it is Governments that lose them. It is hard to disagree.

First, the good news. The choice of candidates was not great but at least former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva beat incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, in last week’s Brazilian presidential elections. That is a victory of one candidate who had his corruption sentence annulled against another who has his own corruption investigations, as yet untested in court.

However, more importantly, Bolsonaro took a ‘Trumpite’ approach to managing the Covid pandemic with all the terrible consequences that followed; 700,000 Brazilian deaths. Then there is the destruction of the Amazon rainforest. The now former Brazilian President was a pro-development, far-right nationalist who sided with criminal syndicates of illegal ranchers and loggers resulting in record levels of deforestation. An area of rainforest the size of Greater London was cleared in September alone ahead of the elections.

Bolsonaro has questioned the role of democracy and threatened, again like Trump, not to recognise the election result if he lost. Without conceding, he is surely gone and good riddance. But despite his appalling record, Bolsonaro nearly got re-elected with 49% of the vote. Almost a triumph for far-right populism. At Congress level his supporters performed strongly.

‘People over populism’ is not necessarily a winning formula…

In Italy, despairing voters have elected a far-right coalition government led by the Brothers of Italy party with deep roots in a fascist past.

And, adding insult to injury, Netanyahu, another populist right-winger facing corruption charges has made a comeback as Israel ‘s likely next Prime Minister. The price he has paid is an alliance with ultra-nationalist and ultra-Orthodox Jewish allies which is a further challenge to Israel’s delicate democracy and internal stability. Netanyahu’s supporters talk of amending the judicial system to ensure corruption charges are dropped. Shameless and depressing.

Finally, we turn to this week’s mid-term elections in the US. America is more polarised than ever. Despite Biden passing legislation on climate change, gun-control, infrastructure investment and child poverty in the face of narrow majorities in Congress, that is not enough. The Democrats face defeat even as Republicans push to make abortion illegal, give local officials the power to overturn election results at a State level and continue to support Trump in the face of clear evidence he was complicit in supporting an attempted coup on 6th January last year.

The very fabric of democracy in under threat in the US but that doesn’t rank as a priority in comparison to inflation, crime and illegal immigration. Add to this toxic mix the crazy ‘wokeness’ of left-wing Democrats with policies such as defunding the police, and there are grounds for real despair at the future of the US as a stable democracy.

We await the results with trepidation and what it means for the possible return of Trump which seemed relatively unlikely for all his blustering… until now.

Right-wing populism is the Japanese knotweed of politics; deeply embedded with roots that are seemingly impossible to destroy. Despite the public being mostly centrist, if moderates don’t govern competently from a centrist position and deliver, the lurch to the undemocratic Right is always at hand.

As we will probably find out on Tuesday with our most important ally…