For more moderate Tories, the last few days have been the best politically since 2015. Despite being a Brexiteer who has planted himself on the Party’s Right on issues such as immigration, Sunak is about as good as it gets!

Grounds for optimism...?

Truss’s ‘libertarian’ premiership hit a brick wall with significant collateral damage whilst the unedifying attempted return of Johnson ended in humiliation. His cringe worthy statement saying he could have been PM again but, for unity reasons in parliament decided to pull back, was breath taking in its hubris. This really should be it for him.

Never mind. Sunak is PM now and not a moment too soon. To be certain of closing the deal he has had to compromise on ministerial appointments, and it will work for now but probably not for long.

The most notable appointment was Suella Braverman as Home Secretary. Having just resigned a few days ago for sending confidential material from a personal email address, she is back in the same post. The price for her support in the leadership race. Understandable but the cost may be too great in the medium-term. The only saving grace is that if she storms off to the back benches again that will be it for her too!

Otherwise, a more continuity Cabinet than one might have guessed. Hunt is probably not Sunak’s choice for Chancellor. He is his own man and notably, for example, only gave Braverman’s appointment tepid support but ‘he will do for now’ in the midst of an economic crisis. They are sufficiently agreed on what needs to be done and should, will have to work closely together. Maintaining the likes of Cleverly, Coffey and Wallace as Truss/Johnson supporters is just good politics, whilst the return of loyalists such as Raab and Gove makes sense too.

The danger for Sunak is that continuity today may not impress the electorate tomorrow. Same old, same old Tories voters might think. In fact, there is some evidence to suggest they have now tuned out like they did in 1992/93 and nothing can rescue the Tories’ electoral prospects from here.

What is certain is that Sunak will have to stamp his authority on the Cabinet with another reshuffle closer to the General Election. Tensions are running high and if Sunak actually governs as a moderate, that reshuffle may be sooner than expected.

Sunak’s compromises work for now, but the Tories’ addiction to further political drama may be hard to cure…

At the start of the week, it was an easy prediction to make. Liz Truss would be gone in weeks, possibly days. After the chaos of the vote on fracking on Wednesday, it was the latter. A wholly self-inflicted disaster, it is difficult to feel much sympathy for Truss or indeed the Tories as a whole for putting her in the position of PM in the first place.

And now, incredibly, we have a strong possibility of the resurrection of Boris Johnson. Political soap opera at its worst.

Tory Party continues to shrink in esteem…

Let’s just remind ourselves of Johnson’s past reign and why he had to resign. Caught regularly lying on a range of issues, covid parties, taking ‘corrupt’ money for decorating his Downing Street flat, losing ethics advisers, 60 ministers resigning at his behaviour forcing Johnson to quit. The list is endless and that is before his fundamental administrative chaos.

And think what happens if he wins the leadership a second time around? Does Hunt stay around as Chancellor? There is no love lost between them, and Johnson is a profligate spender who privately backed Truss. The talented Sunak will probably leave politics. The Right will remain in the ascendant. Relations with our largest trading partner, Europe, will continue to deteriorate. Several Tory MPs are threatening to quit forcing by-elections.

More chaos as the electorate recoil at another, this time discredited former PM, foisted on the country a second time by a tiny minority of Tory members. Johnson’s one saving grace is that he did have an original mandate from the 2019 GE but when he left office, 69% of the public and a majority of Tory voters wanted him gone.

Of course, Johnson is not Truss and that in itself might lead to a slight recovery in the polls. However, the longer-term answer is some thing like Sunak for PM, Hunt staying on in his role as Chancellor and Penny Mordaunt being made Foreign Secretary. It is not whether but only the scale of Tory electoral defeat being debated at the next GE and Johnson is no solution versus more talented colleagues who can rebuild the Party afterwards.

Common sense should prevail, and Johnson left on the backbenches to rack up millions in speaker fees. Meanwhile Prime Minister Sunak and Chancellor Hunt claw some reputation back for the Tories on the economy.

The problem is what do the Tories most lack collectively? Common sense. It could be a very depressing time for moderate voters as today’s Tory Party is lost to them.

To the almost certain horror of the hard-right, libertarian wing of the Conservative Party, moderates have taken back control. The grown-ups are back in charge for now and the sense of relief is palpable.

Liz Truss’s 38 day experiment comprising unfunded tax cuts and libertarian factionalism prolonged only by the death of the Queen, is over. Truss is a busted flush. Her agenda has gone. This morning, incredibly, Jeremy Hunt reversed nearly all aspects of the mini budget. She now offers nothing, not even able communication skills, and will be gone within weeks, possibly even days.

Jeremy Hunt takes charge…

The beneficiaries? Jeremy Hunt, Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt. Putting Brexit to one side, they are moderates, representing the centre/centre-left of the Party. Believers in sound finances, social liberalism, competent government, any one of them would govern by making appointments from all sides of the Party based on merit.

It is time for the Conservative Party to stop divisively thinking of politics in terms of North versus South, blue versus red walls, establishment versus radicals, experts versus who? It is time for competence over ideology and country before Party.

So far, so good but there are still two very large threats facing the Tories. One potentially self-inflicted, one outside their control.

Taking the first, it is still the same underlying Party as it was, with much of its membership very right-wing, and unpleasant ideologues lurking in the wings. Members were seemingly happy with the chaos which came before Truss under Johnson. And they voted in Truss despite all the warning signs. If, in an inevitable change of leader, another election contest is held (that in itself would finish the Tories) with the drift to the Right reconfirmed or heaven forbid, there is a re-coronation of Johnson, then it is game over. No moderate will want anything to do with them. The Party would finally split and lose the next General Election very, very heavily indeed.

Second, it is probably too late for the Tories, anyway. The public is heartedly sick of their pantomime approach to government. Their arrogance, sense of entitlement, treating government as one big experiment. It has caused real damage to the fabric of society, the institutions they are meant to revere, to international relations.

However dull Starmer is and to whatever extent some extremes still lurk in corners of the Labour Party, it is time for a change. For the health of democracy. For the health of the Tory Party.

Activities in the main hall of the annual Conservative Party conference are the least interesting part. Set speeches from ministers to an often sleepy audience which appreciates slogans rather than anything more in-depth, are best avoided. Outside the weird bubble of such gatherings, they barely register with the public.

Not to everyone’s taste…

Which takes this blog to Liz Truss’s speech in Birmingham last week… The Prime Minister is a weak communicator at the best of times which is a real problem in the worst of times. To be fair, in the face of a disastrous conference, Wednesday’s speech was relatively well delivered but it wouldn’t be to a thinking person’s taste. Best ignored.

Why the obsession with growth? Simple in concept, it is not an end in itself. Politicians who do not (or pretend to not) understand economics see it as nirvana. Nonsense.

It avoids the more subtle concept of low productivity, the curse of the UK’s economy. It ignores a green agenda and immediate quality of life issues. It ignores how wealth is distributed except for the weak tinkling from trickle down economics. It ignores how to achieve it with sound public finances.

And then we turn to the ‘anti-growth coalition’. All the Tory Party’s prejudices inaccurately grouped under one slogan. Even for a party conference, Truss should be ashamed of herself for such cheap jibes.

This week we have had more U-turns. After reversing the abolition of the 45% tax band mid-conference, the date for outlining the government’s financial plans has been brought forward by nearly a month; despite denigrating such expertise we have the appointment of an experienced treasury hand as Permanent Secretary and almost certainly welfare benefits will be indexed to inflation rather than earnings despite initial briefings otherwise. Meanwhile, gilt yields tick up reflecting a continuing lack of confidence in the government’s stewardship of the economy.

If you play strong, you had better be strong. Increasingly, the public’s view of the Truss government is they don’t like its priorities or now its weaknesses and, specifically, if you can’t trust the Conservatives with the economy, what’s the point?

The Labour opinion poll lead is massive and few Tory MPs believe it will be reversed. Truss’s legacy after just a few weeks in power. Quite a feat.