Sometimes you think the Tories have it all; a Prime Minister with more than nine lives, an electorate distracted by the tragic Ukraine war, a divided opposition and a mediocre leader of the Labour Party. It is almost too much to bear for anyone unsympathetic to their cause.
All this came together in the local elections. Despite losing a bucket full of council seats, a poor showing from Labour in the North, success for the LibDems in the South being warily written off as the usual Tory protest vote, ‘beergate’ for Starmer taking attention off ‘partygate’ for Johnson, all led to a sigh of relief from the Tories and Johnson keeping his job.
And yet…. this Government is set on making things worse for itself.
A tough summer ahead for the Government…
The cost-of-living crisis is a real disaster for many economically challenged voters. Inflation to hit 10% with unavoidable energy prices skyrocketing is causing much pain. A combination of Brexit, Covid generally but particularly in China, and war in Ukraine, is causing mayhem. But the government seems strangely becalmed. Delaying further financial relief for the hard pressed, probably until the Autumn, only now dusting off a potential windfall tax on the obscenely profitable major energy companies but blocking it in parliament on Tuesday, will lead to weeks of bad headlines. Current inaction will hit the Tories’ support particularly in the North and promised minor tax cuts won’t as they say, ‘cut it’. There is plenty of material for a divided opposition and a pedestrian Starmer to work with and one senses a real chance that the Red Wall will rise again.
Then, let’s move to the South. The Tories are also set on making the Tory protest vote for LibDems last until the next General Election. The fallout from Brexit continues and an aggressive approach to unwinding the Northern Ireland Protocol this Government negotiated certainly treads on the sensitivities of moderate Tory voters. A populist stance generally from Johnson et al as they seek out culture wars to fight is also a major source of irritation. The LibDems are second to the Tories in 91 seats and up to 30 of them mainly in the South look highly winnable. If the LibDems win the Tiverton & Honiton by-election in June, admittedly, even for this run of Tory scandals, in odd circumstances, then all bets are off.
Finally, there is Johnson. Just because he has escaped from ‘partygate’ doesn’t mean he is any longer an asset. He simply cannot govern competently, displays massive hubris in private and is an accident waiting to happen. A weak Cabinet, divided backbenches and side-lined talent such as Jeremy Hunt contribute to a sense of arrogance but also drift in a Party which has been too long in government.
Who knows? The Tories still look a reasonable bet to win the next General Election. Misreading voters, both North and South, however, means the odds gradually keep getting longer.
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