The famous epithet for Johnson proved true. The ‘greased piglet’ escaped the immediate fall-out from the Sue Gray report last week and appeared to be relatively home and dry, his premiership bolstered, some would say, with a cynically timed £15 billion hand-out to deal with the impact of soaring energy prices.

Things are just not getting easier for Johnson…

And yet, this week, it doesn’t feel like that. Without raking over the gory details of the Gray report, the sheer scale of rule breaking and ‘frat-boy’ culture in No.10 continues to reverberate and that is before rumours of more parties, yet to be investigated. Added to this is Johnson’s hubris. Very few believe he is genuinely sorry for what happened on his watch and news that Johnson has watered down the ministerial code including its introductory wording, possibly in case he is found guilty of breaking it is hardly reassuring.

27 Tory MPs have now called publicly for Johnson’s resignation with this list growing over the weekend but, more importantly, there are many others who express deep discomfort about his behaviour privately. This blog is aware of a number of MPs who don’t appear anywhere near the media’s radar wanting Johnson to go, appalled by the Gray report’s findings. As they return to their constituencies this week for a Jubilee break, they are unlikely to be reassured by what they hear from activists and voters more generally. A snap opinion poll showed 59% of the electorate want Johnson to go including 27% of Tory voters. Three quarters of voters think Johnson knowingly lied to parliament. Johnson and his supporters’ defence has also hardly helped matters in emphasising the importance of ‘morale boosting’ leaving drinks as a justification for parties. Alicia Kearns, Tory MP for Rutland and Melton, summed up a common private refrain commenting about ‘the shameful lengths some will pursue to preserve this premiership’.

Then there is the general positioning of the Tory Party. There is an increasing chorus, even from sympathetic commentators, that no-one knows what it stands for under Johnson’s leadership. Certainly not competence; certainly not lower taxes and preservation of the institutions of state; certainly not abiding by international agreements and attempting to strengthen the economy by building a positive post-Brexit relationship with Europe. And even the most die-hard of Tories are uneasy about populist measures such as deporting illegal immigrants to Rwanda, a state with a distinctly dubious human rights record. This blog was recently told a deal with France was certainly in the offing to help solve the immigration crisis until deteriorating relationships with the EU and France in particular, fuelled by rows over the Northern Ireland Protocol, put an end to discussions. How frustrating that politics in the UK has reached this point.

Although it has to be said that a General Election defeat is by no means a certainty, the future does not look rosy for the Tories under Johnson. An increasing proportion of voters seem to have made up their mind about the Prime Minister and not in a favourable way. Any benefit from the recent largesse to mitigate the cost-of-living crisis is likely to be short-lived and has confused core Tories who were told just weeks ago that it was ‘unTory’ to levy a windfall tax on energy companies.

Then there are two uncomfortable by-elections to navigate and an enquiry by the Commons Privileges Committee into Johnson’s statements to parliament on parties in Downing Street.

The heat on No. 10 may intensify over the Summer and not in a good way. For Johnson, the damage has probably been done. For the Tory Party as a whole, the next few months may prove that the fall-out from its leader’s character and actions has swept it up too.

Sometimes you think the Tories have it all; a Prime Minister with more than nine lives, an electorate distracted by the tragic Ukraine war, a divided opposition and a mediocre leader of the Labour Party. It is almost too much to bear for anyone unsympathetic to their cause.

All this came together in the local elections. Despite losing a bucket full of council seats, a poor showing from Labour in the North, success for the LibDems in the South being warily written off as the usual Tory protest vote, ‘beergate’ for Starmer taking attention off ‘partygate’ for Johnson, all led to a sigh of relief from the Tories and Johnson keeping his job.

And yet…. this Government is set on making things worse for itself.

A tough summer ahead for the Government…

The cost-of-living crisis is a real disaster for many economically challenged voters. Inflation to hit 10% with unavoidable energy prices skyrocketing is causing much pain. A combination of Brexit, Covid generally but particularly in China, and war in Ukraine, is causing mayhem. But the government seems strangely becalmed. Delaying further financial relief for the hard pressed, probably until the Autumn, only now dusting off a potential windfall tax on the obscenely profitable major energy companies but blocking it in parliament on Tuesday, will lead to weeks of bad headlines. Current inaction will hit the Tories’ support particularly in the North and promised minor tax cuts won’t as they say, ‘cut it’. There is plenty of material for a divided opposition and a pedestrian Starmer to work with and one senses a real chance that the Red Wall will rise again.

Then, let’s move to the South. The Tories are also set on making the Tory protest vote for LibDems last until the next General Election. The fallout from Brexit continues and an aggressive approach to unwinding the Northern Ireland Protocol this Government negotiated certainly treads on the sensitivities of moderate Tory voters. A populist stance generally from Johnson et al as they seek out culture wars to fight is also a major source of irritation. The LibDems are second to the Tories in 91 seats and up to 30 of them mainly in the South look highly winnable. If the LibDems win the Tiverton & Honiton by-election in June, admittedly, even for this run of Tory scandals, in odd circumstances, then all bets are off.

Finally, there is Johnson. Just because he has escaped from ‘partygate’ doesn’t mean he is any longer an asset. He simply cannot govern competently, displays massive hubris in private and is an accident waiting to happen. A weak Cabinet, divided backbenches and side-lined talent such as Jeremy Hunt contribute to a sense of arrogance but also drift in a Party which has been too long in government.

Who knows? The Tories still look a reasonable bet to win the next General Election. Misreading voters, both North and South, however, means the odds gradually keep getting longer.

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What to do, what to do? Tolerated in the North and fairly loathed in the South, today’s local election results are confusing for the Tories.

Johnson has torn up the anchor of ‘yesterday’s’ Tories

It is not hard to see why. Nationally, and it is national issues which mostly motivate local election voters, the Tories used to stand for a sort of morality in government, moderation in most things, conservativism with a small ‘c’ as they sought to protect the institutions of state and perhaps, most importantly for many of their core supporters, lower taxes. Of course, all these principles were applied with enough ideological flexibility to win elections.

Not anymore. A government trying to illegally prorogue parliament and regularly challenging the judiciary, a misleading Prime Minister constantly accused of being loose with the truth, bringing amorality to its heart, a party ideologically fixated by Brexit and, finally, applying record tax hikes, is not the party of old. It is a strange picture. Beyond this mix of activity being (in part) a winning combination in 2019, what do the anchorless Tories now stand for?

The answer is not a great deal outside Johnson’s ‘shopping trolley’ populism but, of course, the new Tories in the North don’t care about the Party’s past or, to be honest, its future. Many of the current Tory policies tactically appeal or at least fill the vacuum of a mediocre Labour Party which is perceived not to have delivered historically and does not convince about how it will deliver in the future. Northern/Midlands votes are on loan to today’s government. Brexit has been delivered; all politicians are amorally the same so who can bother about such things as ‘Partygate’. Just get on with the job of ‘meaningfully levelling up’ whatever that means in practice and prove you can alleviate the pressures of a soaring cost of living. The loan of votes to the Tories could be permanent if there is no alternative.

But in the South, many voters were committed to the principles of a pre-Johnson Tory Party and are pretty revolted by what they now see. Often anti-Brexit, pro lower taxes, supporters of the status quo and a certain level of probity in government they thoroughly dislike Johnson’s populist regime. Lucky for Johnson et al that Starmer doesn’t quite convince the South like Blair did in ’97, so the LibDems are key beneficiaries of such disillusionment. Congratulations to them. They have had a strong election but in the medium term the ‘post Nick Clegg’ LibDems must hold the centre-ground to build on this success and one doesn’t sense they really understand this. Today, they still seem only a temporary repository for disillusioned Tory votes but that is a subject for another blog.

And Starmer needs to up his game. He needs to stand more clearly for something. Anything. Piling up votes in the cities, notably London, modest gains elsewhere with a bounce back in Scotland is not enough. A brilliant analysis of what he needs to do has been outlined in Robert Shrimsley’s FT column this week. Required reading for any ambitious Labour supporters.

So, there you have it. Not all the local election results are in as this blog is being written but it seems a partly discredited Johnson has upended traditional support in the South for greater loyalty in the North. Net, net, overall, he has done badly but not badly enough to go. His premiership has torn up the anchor of the ‘old Tory Party’ and leaves its long-term future uncertain, not that he cares. It is a problem for his successor.

Johnson is the beneficiary of only modest gains by Starmer’s Labour Party in the North. Starmer is the beneficiary of disillusioned Tories often in the cities. The LibDems are beneficiaries of Johnson’s more widely disliked populism in the South.

On this basis, Johnson needs Starmer and Starmer needs Johnson. Perhaps LibDem leader, Ed Davey, needs them both. What a choice!