Each January political predictions are made for the year ahead. Rarely do commentators revisit past forecasts mainly because people hardly remember them and they are, inconveniently, similar to those of most economists, frequently wrong.
This modest blog with limited, albeit growing readership, has to rake over last year’s predictions to cling on to credibility despite the adage you are only as good as your next forecasts…
So how does the 2021 scoreboard look? Well actually quite good. Eight predictions were made of which six were correct, one partly correct and one still work in progress. None were wrong. Phew!
It is difficult to believe Johnson was master of all he surveyed at the start of 2021 despite the raging Covid pandemic. There was no real threat to his leadership, only rumours that having delivered a full Brexit he may leave the premiership asap to spend more time with his bank balances. This blog disagreed. It forecast that Johnson would go nowhere in 2021 whilst Covid dominated, and his ego drove him to more ‘historic’ actions including reaping the benefits of a supposedly joyous Brexit. However, there would be growing restlessness at his style of leadership and overall incompetence and the seeds would be sown for another game changing political career to ultimately end in failure. Correct.
No Scottish independence referendum or even the promise of one. Correct. This will not happen in this parliament under Johnson or any other Conservative leader.
The next forecasts were on US politics. Biden would be more radical than expected in domestic policy, foreign policy would barely depart from the Trump era and Trump would be a busted flush. Mostly correct. The disappointing Biden has certainly tried to be radical domestically even if one West Virginia Democratic senator has stymied his US$1.75 trillion ‘Build Back Better’ spending Bill. Foreign policy has largely followed Trump, specifically in relation to Afghanistan (where was the promised cooperation with allies?) and China. Trump has been side-lined despite his depressing sorry hold over today’s Republican Party. More on all this later.
On European politics, Macron would try, almost succeed, but ultimately fail to seize Merkel’s mantle of leading Europe. Correct. German political stability reigns and therefore so does its dominance through a Social Democratic led alliance with the continuity chancellor, Olaf Scholz, at its head. Draghi in Italy has outshone Macron in maturity and Macron’s increasingly petulant actions against the British et al to seek re-election has diminished him.
Next, the spotlight on the power of social media companies would intensify with new political initiatives to curtail their power. Work in progress into 2022 and beyond.
Lastly, Covid would dominate the political landscape throughout the year. Sadly correct.
So how does 2022 look? Predictions on likely events this year are tricky as there is nowhere to hide. Key outcomes are absolute. Gulp! Here we go…
2022; a year of absolutes…
This has been re-written twice already since yesterday! Putting aside any preferences this blog may have…Boris Johnson seemed likely to survive throughout 2022. Febrile speculation that his premiership had six months to go and that he would be ousted after the local elections felt wide of the mark. Johnson has no real successors; he would smarten up his act (cue new 2022 haircut…) and his calculated gamble on Covid restrictions would just about succeed. Yes, the economy looks fragile on the cost of living front and lights are flashing amber for him as the Labour Opposition is a little stronger and his backbenchers continue to revolt. But think about it. Mooted successors are Liz Truss (loved by the grass roots, loathed by colleagues, no perceived election winner), Rishi Sunak (currently too tied to Johnson) and Jeremy Hunt (a grown up with insufficient charisma). Oh dear. He would just about manage to strengthen his core team to avoid further No. 10 debacles and, as for Labour, they should be 20 per cent ahead not 5-6 per cent. What they stand for still lacks any sort of clarity in the eyes of voters.
One proviso, however. Johnson had to avoid any more scandals or existing ones developing for the logic of this analysis to apply. Incredibly events are deteriorating swiftly as details of further Downing Street lockdown parties emerge. Until this week, he looked likely to lead the Tories into what now looks a more likely 2024 general election but his ability to self-destruct in the highest office should never be underestimated…His future is in the balance. In the short-term, he will still probably survive because he always does but this is a far more reckless prediction than it seemed just a few days ago. He has lost what little moral authority he had, and the Tories will look to replace him ahead of the next election.
In the US, the Democrats will get a pasting in the November mid-terms. Biden will be a lame duck, but the future does not lie in a resurgent Trump but rather a more political, calculating far-right Republican who, in many ways, will be more threatening than Trump. The Democrats, hopelessly split, will not settle on the also disappointing Kamala Harris as Biden’s successor so the US political stage will remain ill-defined in 2022 until leading future presidential candidates emerge more clearly. All this will exacerbate the depressing partisan divisions engulfing the nation. It really does feel like we are watching the beginnings of the end of an empire.
Macron will win the French presidential election in April. The far right is split and the near right’s candidate, Valerie Pecresse, is not established enough. European politics will remain stable despite spats with East European states (watch the Hungarian parliamentary elections in April closely to see if populism there maintains its resonance). Germany and an improved Italy under Draghi will clip Macron’s wings. One bright spot might be an improved UK/EU relationship post the French elections.
In terms of major political elections, that only leaves Brazil and I confess I have no idea of its future post the October presidential race except for the likely demise of the vile Bolsonaro which must surely be a good thing.
And finally, China will continue to increase its global dominance in the face of a divided America, and relatively weaker Europe. Russia will not invade Ukraine. Such a threatened gamble is a sign of Putin’s weakness not strength. However, it will pay off in undermining NATO’s resolve (and raison d’etre) to push its diminishing influence eastwards.
So Happy 2022 to all readers. This may at least be the year Covid loosens its grip on global events and that, if nothing else, is a reason to be optimistic.
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