This blog has consistently argued that another Johnson led General Election victory is highly likely. The Tories feel like the only game in town as Keir Starmer has limped on as a relatively honest but mediocre Labour leader and the LibDems mostly fade into the background.
Indeed, any straws in the wind to date hinting at Tory vulnerabilities relate only to Johnson himself, and his relationship with his backbenchers, not the Tories as a whole.
And yet…and yet…
One ingredient for a Labour revival is the credibility of the Labour front bench. Starmer botched the last shadow cabinet reshuffle providing his awful Deputy Leader, Angela Rayner, (directly elected so cannot be fired), with a factional victory of sorts. The end result was some minor improvements but not enough and Starmer looked weak in the process.
Where were the emerging or existing Labour Big Beasts? They needed to be front and centre to make progress. The first reshuffle mostly didn’t uncover them when they would have been of real benefit, particularly as the Tories are hardly overwhelmed in this department.
So, this week’s latest reshuffle is interesting. Yvette Cooper finally returns as Shadow Home Secretary (replacing the largely unimpressive Nick Thomas-Symonds), the highly economically literate Rachel Reeves stays as Shadow Chancellor with her authority enhanced, the sharp and, importantly, centrist northerner, Lisa Nandy, moves from the Foreign Office (off you go, the overrated David Lammy to this now backwater) to challenge Gove at the Orwellian ministry of Levelling Up. Then there is the shrewd Pat McFadden supporting Reeves at the Treasury and a rising star, Wes Streeting, goes to Health. An added bonus is that former leader, Ed Miliband, a reminder of past failings, has had his portfolio reduced. Not too painful but why doesn’t he go off and run a mid-sized NGO whilst his more talented older brother runs a larger one?
This is the reshuffle Keir Starmer always wanted and he has now got it. And it has just arrived as the Tories are wilting with a somewhat underpowered, accident-prone Cabinet.
In the last blog the three-pronged assault on Johnson’s, and possibly the Tories’ grip on power was unhappy Tory backbenchers, a faltering economy and Labour getting its act together. The latter two were not happening. With this reshuffle, Labour’s performance has the potential to improve, and the score has now moved from one out of three to perhaps one and a half.
The Tories, and Johnson in particular, should therefore start feeling a little nervous. Coronavirus, even Omicron style, is unlikely to provide enough distraction to avoid a decent challenge being noticed by voters from this now more talented Labour front bench.
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