Johnson’s government is performing a high wire act. As supply chain problems have mounted from petrol to Christmas turkeys, ministers are staying relaxed, at least in public. They blame a pre-Brexit model of low paid immigrants filling key jobs, from HGV drivers to fruit pickers and broader support services.
The brighter future is based on higher paid British workers meeting all our supply needs. If there are problems today, it is a price worth paying for this post-Brexit nirvana. Oh, and there is ‘levelling up’ to come too.
The impressive Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, was full of optimism in his Conservative Party Conference speech this week. Listing a range of measures to encourage technological investment and training initiatives, he also pledged post pandemic fiscal rectitude as he put his faith in the individual not the State and also his faith in his own leadership credentials… It was all action through free market capitalism, mitigated by carefully targeted government support. Good stuff for those who worry about the size of the State, particularly post Covid, and with a positive view of the post-Brexit sunny uplands. It provides a level of optimism which will resonate for the time being.
Then you have Johnson’s bravura speech today. His premiership has always been a risky, unTory venture, one that has paid handsome dividends to date through robbing Labour of its heartlands. Whatever his Chancellor preaches, it has been based on big spending and high taxes. Now his government is attacking business and one can at least sympathise with some of his analysis. Rescuing the British economy from itself is about greater productivity through more investment and this doesn’t all have to be about government. Companies have benefitted for years from low taxes, cheap labour and growing profits. They have to be a key part of the solution too.
The problem is that this isn’t the whole picture. Brexit is causing huge disruption, and this is Johnson’s government’s fault. Correcting its impact will take years if it can be accomplished at all and reversing Covid induced rises in universal credit benefits, for example, to encourage people to stay or get back to work is a short-term solution to the long-term issues outlined above. And continental Europe has shown government intervention needs to be substantial (with high taxes well spent) to make an impact, whatever the role of business.
The timing is poor for Johnson’s current narrative. Against the backdrop of sharp rises in the cost of living, there will be a huge squeeze on incomes for those less well off. Will this finally translate into some deep Tory unpopularity? Well, two things have to happen; a developing belief that the future does not look as optimistic as Johnson alleges and that Labour offers a credible alternative.
On the latter, the Labour Party Conference was quite a contrast. Ridden with personal animosity and pessimism about where the country is today and where it is heading, Labour for decades hasn’t delivered in its heartlands and since 2010 has mostly seemed incapable of governing competently. Why should people believe Keir Starmer’s tepid leadership approach now? Things will have to get worse, much worse, and quickly, for a significant shift in sentiment.
About the former, Johnson is a good times Prime Minister, loose with the truth as he reiterates his ‘boosterism’ approach to politics. Whilst he struggled in the depths of the pandemic he has mostly got away with his significant defects. It is ‘priced-in’ as they say and if his optimism and that of his senior ministers on current economic headwinds holds in the minds of voters, at least through to the next election, Labour won’t be able to lay a glove on them.
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