The Tories are standing on their heads. Their raison d’etre and bedrock of support was always via an appeal to the wealthier parts of the UK, predominantly the South. They had a very clear offering to the centre-right of the political spectrum; support for institutions, lower taxes, controlled budget deficits, smaller government, mostly constructive nationalism, a United Kingdom, a tough but largely constructive approach to the EU. All with a sub-text that collectively such an approach allowed for a stronger economy to support the less well off.
No longer.
Admittedly, the pandemic has driven much of the recent political agenda, but the Tories have been busy adjusting their political stance ever since Johnson was voted leader and this will continue after the pandemic recedes.
In a successful swing at Labour’s heartlands, the Tories have stood for the opposite of the usual. Anti-EU, this debate was partly framed by giving power to the government to aggressively intervene in the economy, whether it is initiating huge infrastructure projects or propping up ailing industries such as steel (Margaret Thatcher must be turning in her grave). And to hell with Brexit’s overall impact on the economy… They have also been cavalier with the Union, have a new sub-text of spending money like water, pandemic notwithstanding, and tax rises will almost certainly be focused on the better off. They have to date successfully engaged in culture wars that the ‘old’ Tories used to largely and politely side-step, except for the odd red-faced backbencher.
No wonder Labour, even under Keir Starmer, has not been able to lay a glove on them.
Lucky with his Opposition led by Corbyn in 2019, Johnson won in the South through fear and won spectacularly in the Midlands/North through great tactics as Labour’s traditional seats turned blue.
But will this alliance of voters hold? A few straws in the wind, including the by-election defeat in Chesham and Amersham, may make the Tories a little uneasy:
- Attacks on the Green Belt which is upsetting traditional supporters in the South
- Higher taxes in the face of a more moderate Labour Party which may just allow voters in the South to think it is safe to vote elsewhere
- Culture wars going too far. Snide comments from ministers on the Black Lives Matter bending of the knee will strike a note of widespread irritation, particularly now some national footballers are involved, with one openly calling the Home Secretary racist
- Brexit. Whilst done, if not the impact of its longer-term fall-out, not caring about the Union and continuing with initiatives to gently or not so gently undermine institutions generally may start to resonate with voters, particularly in the South
- Scrutiny on general competence as we emerge from the pandemic. This may attract the attention of all voters. It is interesting that in the recent Batley and Spen by-election, if it wasn’t for George Galloway’s divisive campaign aimed at the Asian community, which split the Labour vote, Labour would have won handsomely in this Northern seat
- Then lastly, cuts in foreign aid. The Tories are being attacked from many sides, including by all their living former Prime Ministers, although probably not by their new target base of voters
As this blog has written before, Tory hegemony seems strong, and it is difficult to see anything but a Tory victory at the next election.
However, Labour is under new, moderate if, to date, ineffective leadership and the LibDems came second to the Tories in well over 70 seats mostly in the South. The new Tory ‘Red Wall’ in the North had better hold as some traditional Tory voters may be getting restless and with good cause.
Inside Right Politics 