Such predictions always require a review of how accurate 2020 ones were. Umm…not too bad actually. Seven out of nine were pretty much correct. A quick run through is provided below. But of course, there is a proviso. Such analysis all seems irrelevant in the face of Covid. Who got that right? This was the only issue that mattered in the end and affected almost everything.
Anyway, here we go:
In UK politics, the predictions for 2020 were that the Tories would get Brexit done, selling out Brexiteers where they had to (fishing?) but pursuing an English nationalist agenda, at least in tone. In the face of Tory dominance, Keir Starmer was Labour’s best bet and that the LibDems will be politically dead for a generation or permanently, requiring a new centrist party but not yet. Mostly true where Covid allowed.
In Scotland, there would be no second referendum (correct) as the SNP had peaked (looks like being horribly wrong…).
Overseas, Trump would escape the consequences of impeachment by the House of Representatives and emerge politically stronger to win the presidential election. So true until the impact of Covid unseated him. One silver lining in an otherwise bleak sky.
Cultural wars across the West would intensify as liberal cities versus conservative rural regions slugged it out. So true and set to intensify further.
So, to 2021 if we can face it…
It will be a relatively quiet year because of Covid.
Despite conjecture, Johnson will stay as PM to bed down Brexit and see out Covid. The self-styled ‘world king’ cannot walk away mid-battle. But backbenchers, recognising an increasingly effective, competitive Opposition, will be restless about his style and competence and the stage will be set for a possible 2022 departure. Any independent review of the management of the pandemic will not be kind and, even before the long-term consequences of Brexit come to fruition, another game changing political career will ultimately end in failure.
Despite the SNP surge there will be no Scottish referendum on independence. Johnson will block it.
Biden will be more radical and effective than expected, particularly as the Democrats have seized the Senate. I was struck by commentary that he and Nancy Pelosi are determined to make a real impact in the closing chapter of their careers. Climate change and infrastructure (ex-tackling Covid) will lead their agenda. Short of an unexpected crisis, there will be no radical change in foreign policy except repairing the well documented damage of Trump. It will be painful for the UK, however, as it watches the US re-embrace the EU.
Whatever the polls say about the attitudes of Republican voters, Trump is now a busted flush having over-reached himself since Election Day. He will not shape events in 2021 leaving the GOP to sort out what sort of Party they want to be. Bruising attempts to drop many aspects of Trump’s legacy will succeed but not wholly.
Macron will try and seize control of the leadership of Europe ahead of the 2022 Presidential election in France and to take advantage of Merkel stepping down. A close call, but he will not succeed. Germany, and whoever is the next Chancellor, will maintain their dominance.
Lastly, across borders, there will finally be progress in reining in the powers of social media companies. There is a real consensus emerging that the power of the likes of Facebook and Twitter has gone too far. Freedom of speech considerations are no longer the lazy default position they were and require legitimate scrutiny. Governments will gradually assert control; monopolies will be broken and social media companies will ultimately be held to account perhaps through similar responsibilities to those of publishers. As the tide of fake news and attempts to manipulate democratic processes surge, this cannot come soon enough.
Of course, progress in curtailing the pandemic will continue to ‘Trump’ news agendas. But there is one good thing about 2021. At least you can use that phrase without being sadly ironic…
Inside Right Politics 