There is no upside to Brexit. The concept of national sovereignty is ephemeral in a global economy awash with pan-national crises. What does it mean in an age of global warming, pandemics, the absolute power of the US and the rising power of China? The answer is very little.
If the UK has issues such as a north-south divide, poor public services, weak infrastructure, fractured relationships with devolved governments, none are solved by leaving the EU. Some are exacerbated.
It is true that ending our membership of the EU will impact immigration and it is also true that the rise in immigrants from Eastern Europe has in some regions occasionally been difficult to absorb, at least culturally. But these individuals often staff our public services, the NHS in particular, work on our farms and pay their way. They will now be replaced more frequently by non-EU immigrants which one doubts was the motivation of Brexit voters.
We were constantly promised that a trade agreement with the EU would be easy, that an ‘oven-ready’ deal was in the offing. Well, another let down from Brexiteers, either by accident or design. Here we are, over 4 years later, scrambling for a last-minute deal. Those supporting Brexit now dominate government. They must own the final outcome, even a disappointing ‘skinny deal’, and there is nowhere for them to hide if we crash out.
There are two outstanding issues. First, fishing rights. These are a red herring since the fishing industry, according to its own figures, represents less than 0.1% of our economy and at least half of British caught fish are exported to the EU anyway.
What really matters is the second issue which is around regulation and state aid. The EU will not let us in to their single market with regulatory or state subsidy advantages. Being on their doorstep is why comparisons with a Canada style deal, which doesn’t give Canada completely tariff and quota-free access to Europe anyway, are erroneous. A level playing field is crucial to the EU dealing with a major economy 21 miles across the English Channel and having a land border with Ireland.
The UK is stuck. One understands that full sovereignty, free from any EU restrictions, ought to be the goal of Brexiteers to make the initial pain of leaving the EU worthwhile. The problem is that such an absolute approach to ‘taking back control’ blocks a trade deal, being contradictory to the principles and political will which drives the European project. You can’t have your cake and eat it to paraphrase a well-known Prime Minister…
The cost and added complexity of achieving that full rupture will be enormous and hasten the UK’s decline. The car industry is already looking fragile with a series of damaging Brexit related announcements this week. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility estimates a no deal Brexit will cost £40 billion and that is on top of previous Brexit and now coronavirus-related losses. Freedom to travel to the EU is to be curtailed. None of the pitfalls of failing to achieve a trade deal were set out during the EU referendum by those promising the sunny uplands of a new arm’s length relationship.
David Cameron and George Osborne were wrong about the economic consequences of leaving the EU only in their timing. Those consequences are now crystallising. One hopes the glib, exaggerated promises of Johnson and the band populists around him will now be seen for what they are and that they pay the price electorally. I am not so sure that will happen, at least not yet, but it is early days…
Inside Right Politics 