Either brave or foolish, this blog’s prediction is that Biden will win the 2020 Presidential election. Tuesday’s presidential ‘debate’ confirmed this.
Why the certainty?
The debate. On Tuesday, Trump needed to reach out beyond his core supporters. He failed. Over the top interruptions and failure to absolutely condemn white supremacists, essentially name checking Proud Boys, must surely be the final straw for floating voters. Biden just had to stay upright and not get lost. He succeeded. Trump also allowed Biden to put some distance between himself and the Democratic Party’s left wing by going for Bernie Sanders, and asides from Biden to Trump saying ‘Would you shut up, man?’ played well on television and social media. It came across as a comment from a decent, exasperated man fed up with Trump’s bullying antics. Surely, watching this, a majority of Americans must be worn down with the divisiveness Trump brings to the table.
As an aside, why are debate moderators so poor? We have the same issue in the UK, and there really needs to be a raising of the game to make these gladiatorial clashes worthwhile.
Coronavirus. Appallingly handled. The fall-out is growing and there will be no vaccine to save Trump or the economy this side of November.
The Supreme Court. Nominating Amy Coney Barrett in haste ahead of the Presidential election is a disgrace bearing in mind the Republicans delayed Barak Obama’s nomination nine months before the 2016 election. Any floating voter would see the hypocrisy and the divisiveness this creates. It pleases core Trump supporters but, again, as polls show, it alienates floating voters and energises Democrats to get out to vote as equal rights, the Affordable Care Act and indeed the very results of the Presidential election are threatened.
The polls. These were proving remarkably stable in favour of Biden after some tightening and in actual fact are now starting to move more favourably to him after the debate. He is now largely ahead of where Clinton was in 2016. Most polls are also now weighted for the educational qualifications of voters which was one reason they were inaccurate in exaggerating Clinton’s support in 2016. It is worth noting, however, that Clinton still won the popular vote by 3 million and only lost three key swing states by a collective 80,000 votes. For this reason alone, Biden, just for not being Clinton, should win this election. But RealClearPolitics in polls today has Biden ahead of Trump by 8-9%. Even the normally Trump leaning Rasmussen Reports has Biden leading by 8%. Then there is a poll this week in the key state of Pennsylvania which has Biden ahead by 9%. The betting odds are now 59% v 41% in Biden’s favour, strongly up in recent weeks, and the highest since July.
Of course, there is still a month left and two more presidential debates to go. But it is Biden’s to lose and, barring a catastrophe, I don’t think he will.
Inside Right Politics 
I hope you are right.
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