Two characteristics of the populist surge across the globe are evident. First, populist governments simply replace one elite with another, in the process possibly speaking to a smaller room of people than previous regimes…Second, they mostly seem to be manifestly incompetent and that is what will do for them in the end.
This has sadly become all too evident with the management of the Covid-19 pandemic. Let’s look at a few of the cast to see its impact. Note Putin and Xi are excluded from this roll call. You can hardly be a true populist when you don’t invite people to freely vote for you in the first place…
Trump. A second wave of infections, which is really just an extension of the first wave is engulfing the US, particularly in Republican led states who followed the President’s lead that lockdowns are an anathema to freedom loving Americans. Trump is now behind Biden by double digits in most national polls. Crucially in key swing states, including the populous Florida, Biden is ahead by 5-10%. Infections are heading towards 3 million, there are 130,000 deaths and re-openings are being reversed. The public are increasingly of the view that the pandemic will get worse dragging down any economic rebound. Trump’s general behaviour and lack of leadership is appalling even to some of his core base. To add insult to injury he has just withdrawn from the World Health Organisation. Of course, there is always a risk that law and order issues will drag some support back to him, but one feels his ability to enthuse is draining away.
Bolsonaro. His behaviour is perhaps even more extraordinary than Trump’s and this week he has tested positive for coronavirus. One hopes his infection is confined to his earlier description of it being sniffles or ‘a little flu’. Bolsonaro has consistently urged regional governors to ease lockdowns and only on Monday watered down face mask regulations. He has lost two health ministers in the process and other cabinet ministers due to his handling of the crisis. Meanwhile infections have topped 1.6 million with 65,000 fatalities, second only to his friend and ally, Donald Trump.
Johnson. It is perhaps unfair to club Johnson together with the above two. His populism is more nuanced but he is a populist nonetheless. Whilst mindful of the science, his libertarian instincts delayed the obvious need for an early lockdown. With over 60,000 excess deaths in the UK, topping the grim league table of worst affected countries on most measures, his popularity has fallen sharply, despite decisive economic intervention, in the face of a number of issues; his key adviser, Cummings, caught flouting lockdown rules and getting away with it, confused messaging, a failure to sort out a schools reopening policy and a growing focus on the mismanagement of the crisis in care homes.
Poland. This may be a little tangential but coronavirus delayed the presidential poll due in May until this month with the final round this Sunday. It is pitting the incumbent Law and Justice Party backed candidate, Andrzej Duda, against the liberal, current Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski. The coronavirus induced economic downturn has helped narrow the race considerably and the Law and Justice Party’s cocktail of right-wing nationalism, social conservatism, now with a strong dash of homophobic rhetoric, is under electoral threat for the first time since 2015. If Duda wins, then the corrosive populism dominating Eastern Europe, in turn undermining democratic institutions, will remain unchecked but if there is an upset, then the tide may start to turn.
None of the above populists will go without a fight and there is still time for populism to reassert itself, particularly if the pandemic abates more quickly than seems evident today. But to use Johnson’s ‘Whack- a-Mole’ analogy, let’s hope they (and others) go down one by one and the coronavirus leaves at least one cloud with a silver lining.
Inside Right Politics 