Never has the democratic process been under more threat, this time from both liberals and populists. Let me explain why.

The argument that populists are undermining democracy and treating voters as fools is well documented. Populists apparently feign interest in voters’ concerns and rail against the liberal elite but in reality, don’t give a damn. They simply replace one elite with another and, in the process, damage the prospects of the very people who voted for them. Take Trump for example. It is not true that he said if he wanted to stand for President, he would stand as a Republican because they are “the dumbest group of voters”, but it is true that Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, said in 2017, “He (Trump) just knows Republicans are stupid and they’ll buy it”.

The very people who voted for Trump are now suffering most from his appalling approach to the covid-19 pandemic, which is overwhelming America. The tax cuts he doled out have benefited the rich and now, to top it all, just three days ago Trump gave an interview saying he might not accept the results of the November election, admitting “he does not like to lose”. Some argue that voter suppression is now at the heart of his re-election strategy. He rails against postal voting and same day registration. Arbitrary purges of voting rolls and restricted voting times are now common in the minority neighbourhoods of Republican-run states.

In the UK, the same analysis could apply. The Brexit vote, which we now know might have been influenced by the Russians, has had the most detrimental effect on those who voted to leave the EU. Research from the Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy at Warwick University, outlined in the FT, found that parts of the UK, such as the West Midlands, with high levels of low-skilled and manufacturing employment, have underperformed since 2016. Such areas heavily voted Leave in the EU referendum. Turkeys voting for Christmas but do those who ran the Brexit campaign care? No. Some pretty incredible porkies were told during the EU referendum as delivering on ideological aims outranked a commitment to democratic accountability.

Many argue that attacking the liberal elite and hiding behind ‘fake news’ is just a smokescreen. The argument goes that populists and populism is based on self-centred advancement founded on the belief that voters don’t deserve democracy and can be manipulated accordingly.

The challenge is that liberals are starting to share the same ground. There is a developing argument that if voters are stupid enough to vote for Trump, Brexit, Putin, Duda in Poland, Orban in Hungary, Bolsonaro in Brazil etc, do they really deserve democracy when the outcome of such elections is mostly so damaging to their individual prospects and a nation’s health generally? There is also a growing suppression of freedom of speech among extreme liberals for anyone deemed not politically correct enough, worthy of a blog on its own. All this leads to mutterings that perhaps voting should be encouraged only for those educated enough to know what is best for them…

Against this background, it is worth being reminded of Churchill’s full quote on the subject of democracy: “Many forms of Government have been tried and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…”.

Food for thought. The case for democracy and full voter participation clearly has to be re-made in these turbulent times and not just in the obvious places.

According to the IMF’s latest analysis of economic ranking, admittedly pre-Covid so it is likely to be flattering, the UK is in 7th place with a 3% share of the world’s nominal GDP. We have recently fallen behind India. The US accounts for a 24.7% share and China 16.9%. The EU, post-Brexit, accounts for c16%. On a per capita basis we rank 23rd. That hardly amounts to a powerful bargaining position as we forge our new post-Brexit global trading alliances…

And there is no clearer indication of our relative economic weakness than the rows and U-turn over the role of Huawei in helping to build our 5G network. The government announced this week, under some pressure from the Trump administration and its own backbenchers, that Huawei will be banned from supplying new equipment to the UK’s 5G network from the end of the year, reversing a decision made in January. In part this is due to a ‘reassessment of security risks’ prompted by fresh US sanctions. Huawei now cannot rely on the supply of US made chips and will have to rely on home grown ones. Then there is Hong Kong…

The impact of this decision will apparently be a 2 year delay in rolling out our 5G network at a cost of £2 billion and that is before any compensation to operators. It has also damaged our relations with China where inward investment to the UK has already fallen from a peak of over $30 billion in 2017 to less than $3 billion in 2019. The Chinese Ambassador warned such a move would damage Britain’s image as a proponent of free trade and cautioned that it was “not in the UK’s interest” to make an enemy of China. Strong stuff.

The purpose of this blog is not to debate the merits of keeping Huawei at bay but to highlight the economic vulnerability of our current position. We have been dragged, albeit reluctantly, into Trump’s confrontational trade war with China in advance of trying to secure a free trade agreement with the US. To what extent are the two linked? We are also being threatened by China. Our bargaining chip of 3% of the world’s GDP is looking somewhat meagre.

Earlier this week government officials admitted that the post-Brexit bureaucracy burden of trading with Europe, even if a trade deal is reached, would involve an extra 215 million customs declarations at a cost of £7 billion a year. Even Michael Gove confessed that any new arrangements would require the hiring of some 50,000 private sector customs agents to deal with these formalities. Such is the price of leaving the single market.

Over half the world’s trade is divided between 3 trading colossi, one of which is the EU. Our economic weakness relative to the other two, the US and China, has just been cruelly exposed with the prevarications over Huawei. It will be miraculous if we hold on to our current share of global GDP in the post-Covid years ahead which, in any case, has been shown to provide little protection. Against this backdrop, the cost of this Government’s ideological obsession of leaving the EU on its own terms is increasingly plain to see.

Two characteristics of the populist surge across the globe are evident. First, populist governments simply replace one elite with another, in the process possibly speaking to a smaller room of people than previous regimes…Second, they mostly seem to be manifestly incompetent and that is what will do for them in the end.

This has sadly become all too evident with the management of the Covid-19 pandemic. Let’s look at a few of the cast to see its impact. Note Putin and Xi are excluded from this roll call. You can hardly be a true populist when you don’t invite people to freely vote for you in the first place…

Trump. A second wave of infections, which is really just an extension of the first wave is engulfing the US, particularly in Republican led states who followed the President’s lead that lockdowns are an anathema to freedom loving Americans. Trump is now behind Biden by double digits in most national polls. Crucially in key swing states, including the populous Florida, Biden is ahead by 5-10%. Infections are heading towards 3 million, there are 130,000 deaths and re-openings are being reversed. The public are increasingly of the view that the pandemic will get worse dragging down any economic rebound. Trump’s general behaviour and lack of leadership is appalling even to some of his core base. To add insult to injury he has just withdrawn from the World Health Organisation. Of course, there is always a risk that law and order issues will drag some support back to him, but one feels his ability to enthuse is draining away.

Bolsonaro. His behaviour is perhaps even more extraordinary than Trump’s and this week he has tested positive for coronavirus. One hopes his infection is confined to his earlier description of it being sniffles or ‘a little flu’. Bolsonaro has consistently urged regional governors to ease lockdowns and only on Monday watered down face mask regulations. He has lost two health ministers in the process and other cabinet ministers due to his handling of the crisis. Meanwhile infections have topped 1.6 million with 65,000 fatalities, second only to his friend and ally, Donald Trump.

Johnson. It is perhaps unfair to club Johnson together with the above two. His populism is more nuanced but he is a populist nonetheless. Whilst mindful of the science, his libertarian instincts delayed the obvious need for an early lockdown. With over 60,000 excess deaths in the UK, topping the grim league table of worst affected countries on most measures, his popularity has fallen sharply, despite decisive economic intervention, in the face of a number of issues; his key adviser, Cummings, caught flouting lockdown rules and getting away with it, confused messaging, a failure to sort out a schools reopening policy and a growing focus on the mismanagement of the crisis in care homes.

Poland. This may be a little tangential but coronavirus delayed the presidential poll due in May until this month with the final round this Sunday. It is pitting the incumbent Law and Justice Party backed candidate, Andrzej Duda, against the liberal, current Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski. The coronavirus induced economic downturn has helped narrow the race considerably and the Law and Justice Party’s cocktail of right-wing nationalism, social conservatism, now with a strong dash of homophobic rhetoric, is under electoral threat for the first time since 2015. If Duda wins, then the corrosive populism dominating Eastern Europe, in turn undermining democratic institutions, will remain unchecked but if there is an upset, then the tide may start to turn.

None of the above populists will go without a fight and there is still time for populism to reassert itself, particularly if the pandemic abates more quickly than seems evident today. But to use Johnson’s ‘Whack- a-Mole’ analogy, let’s hope they (and others) go down one by one and the coronavirus leaves at least one cloud with a silver lining.