This victory is not a personal mandate for Johnson. His reputation as an untrustworthy rascal remains intact despite his handsome majority. But the Tories were always favourites to win comfortably as they successfully united the Brexit vote.
Labour’s equivocal approach to this issue, threatening to vote against their own deal in a second referendum, brought confusion and frustration in equal measures. The LibDem’s revoke article 50 approach was simply too harsh in the end. ‘Get Brexit Done’ was a simplistic and effective message. There will be a time when voters realise leaving the EU is not that simple and all their ills are not down to EU membership but that is for another time.
But actually, this wasn’t the Brexit election but the Corbyn election. What really did for Labour was Corbyn’s extremism; his voting record, his stubborn support of hopeless left-wing causes and hopeless left-wing colleagues. The electorate are not stupid and, across the North in particular, they rejected his Islington world view of life. And John McDonnell is almost equally to blame. The rash of spending promises, with the possibility of an inept Government taking control of the heights of the economy, was simply too much even for struggling voters. They knew its effect would be to create greater poverty down the line. Most defeated Labour candidates seem to confirm that ultimately it was Corbyn not Brexit which defeated them.
And what of the LibDems? The scale of their failure confirmed it wasn’t a Brexit election. Why they ever agreed to a December election nobody knows. Pure hubris. Johnson was always going to win against Corbyn simply because Corbyn was Corbyn. Watching Nicola Sturgeon celebrate Swinson’s defeat must be gut wrenching since the SNP lured the LibDems into joining them for a Christmas run at the polls. 12th December was certainly festive for the SNP.
So, what now? Almost certainly 10 years of Tory government. There is simply nobody else. The centre/centre left will need to start again. Tweaking the Labour Party a little via a new mediocre leader (incredibly Corbyn wants to hang on to next April to help the hard Left’s leadership candidate get elected) or the LibDems treating their self-inflicted wounds with sticking plaster is not enough. These two parties are dead in the water. A new Party free of its own history is the answer. That will take more self-awareness than shown to date and a lot more time.
Johnson will genuinely try and repay his northern voters. Austerity is over and he will be fairly radical in moving the focus of his administration. He will be very tough on the EU until he realises ultimately, they won’t budge and it will damage the economy significantly. At least he is free of the ERG. He will run an economically liberal, US centric government but it will also be socially conservative. There are no votes to be had in the new Tory constituencies for a soft approach to immigration and law and order issues, for example, whatever Johnson’s instincts.
The UK will be a harsher country as the tone of politics moves to the Right along with some of the Government’s actions. The Union is under threat with nationalists now in a majority in Northern Ireland and totally dominant in Scotland. The relief of getting Brexit done will soon be tempered by economic realities.
Yet it will be a generation before Remainers have another say on the EU and their focus now needs to be on rebuilding the centre ground of politics. A genuinely new Opposition party must be the focus of next year. It will be worth the effort. The electorate will tire of the Tories in the end.
And, finally… promises, promises… the last blog of the year will be relentlessly upbeat and possibly Christmassy…
Inside Right Politics 