What a couple of weeks! When Johnson became PM, political life was always going to become more colourful but, looking like a set from a Tarantino film, it may be too much even for him…
The strategy of Cummings (Johnson’s senior adviser and the real driver of events) and Johnson was always to enact a scorched earth policy to ensure EU departure by 31st October. With total contempt for the Tory Party and Parliament, Cummings’ aim was to move the Tories and the political agenda to a hard Brexit versus Remain, accuse Parliament of betraying the people and crush the Brexit Party on the way to a famous General Election victory. Grassroots Tories mostly like this even though it was too much for 21 Tory MPs, expelled from the Party for voting against their own government. Other moderates are feeling distinctly queasy.
So how has this strategy fared? On the upside for the hard Brexiteers, Johnson’s brutal approach at least smacks of some leadership and he polls far more strongly than Corbyn. Overall opinion poll ratings have held up and there is a glimmer of hope that a General Election victory may just be possible. The good news, however, stops there.
The danger with a deliberately provocative approach is that it is high risk and makes governing more vulnerable to unexpected ‘events’ and, my, has there been an avalanche of these.
Let’s just run through a few. Ruth Davidson, the moderate, hugely popular Scottish Tory leader, resigns putting probably 10 Scottish Tory seats at risk. Then, incredibly, Johnson’s own brother resigns citing a conflict between the national interest and family. Less of an impact, but still damaging, Amber Rudd, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, resigns out of the blue outraged at the expulsion of 21 colleagues. Proroguing Parliament for an extended period ‘whips up’ determined opposition to Johnson’s team and boosts extensive cross-party cooperation. Rees Mogg, Leader of the House of Commons, and Cummings’ consistent goading of moderate Tory MPs has also made the Tory moderates’ rebellion worse.
The consequences? There will now be no General Election in October; Johnson is humiliatingly instructed to seek a deal with the EU or extend membership until end January and is now also forced to publish private communications on the real reasons for proroguing parliament.
Lastly, Speaker Bercow has the last laugh by resigning in this parliament, almost certainly guaranteeing the next Speaker will be a Remainer.
I doubt much of this appeared in Cummings’ play book…The problem with a highly aggressive strategy in a political system of unwritten checks and balances is that it can run out of control, stoking overwhelming hostility and surprising barriers to progress. It is a thrilling ride but not good politics if the end goal is more difficult to achieve. That is what has happened.
In reality, despite all the brave words from Johnson’s camp, it is now hard for the Tories to win a no-deal General Election. Their own internal polling confirms this. The loss of seats to the SNP in Scotland and to the Liberal Democrats in the South, exacerbated by events, means significant Labour seats in the North would have to fall to Johnson. The danger is that Brexit supporting Labour voters won’t just vote on Brexit. Economics matters, hence the recent announcements of a Tory spending splurge, but it is unlikely to be enough.
A possible humiliating and dangerous deal with Farage is an option but Johnson has set himself against this. Farage is loathed more than anyone by Cummings (does he like anybody?) and his whole strategy is designed to take him out.
Oh dear. That leaves a deal with the EU as the only viable option for a Tory victory in a likely November General Election. Watch this space for concessions on the Irish backstop…
Inside Right Politics 