British politics imploding

Extraordinary…

Let’s start with the Tories. Boris Johnson is proving to be one of the most divisive PMs in modern history and that is before he has even taken office. The former Tory PM, John Major, threatens to take the Government, run by his own party, to court if it tries to suspend parliament to deliver Brexit. Johnson won’t rule this out.

Then we have ‘Ambassadorgate’. Britain’s Ambassador to the US is forced to resign in the face of a bullying, out-of-control President. Trump refuses to do business with him after the leaking of ‘diplomatic’ intelligence giving a frank assessment of the incompetence of the Trump Administration. Sir Kim Darroch could have clung on had Johnson chosen to back him in a leadership debate. He didn’t and, as the next UK PM, that made Darroch’s position untenable, hence his departure. In a breath-taking interview, a serving British Foreign Office minister calls Johnson’s actions ‘contemptible’, accusing him of having ‘thrown our ambassador under a bus’. What is it about Johnson and buses?

Equally incredible, the current PM, Theresa May, is threatening to appoint a US ambassador before Johnson takes office, in turn facing attacks from Johnson’s supporters who claim it is a deliberate sabotage of his approach to US/UK relations.

All of this will have no impact on the Tory leadership battle of course. The Tory membership is overwhelmingly white, male and ‘older’; in favour of hanging, Farage and breaking up the Union to achieve Brexit if necessary. Like Trump, any scandal washes off Johnson…for now…and he will become the PM the week after next.

And whatever his detractors say, Johnson is no buffoon. He is a dissembler, an embracer of the far-right when it suits him, and ruthless. With no political principles and a chaotic private life (no moral judgement here but where will he find the time to stay on top of the detail…?), he will go to any lengths to gain and hold power, possibly destroying many unwritten constitutional principles in the process. He will embrace Trump along the way and will move the Tories, at least in appearance, to the Alt. right. In fact many Tory MPs think he will blow up in office quite quickly; but are banking on him getting them through Brexit first. Oh dear…

Now to the Labour Party. Destroyed by a BBC documentary yesterday on anti-Semitism, it is over for Corbyn who is allegedly not in good health anyway. Split on Brexit, essentially Marxist in all but name, riven by factions and with most able Labour MPs refusing to serve on the front bench, they are offering no opposition to the chaotic Tories.

The future? The best is that Johnson negotiates an amended Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Unlikely. The most favoured option is that in the face of an intransigent EU and with no parliamentary majority, Johnson calls a snap General Election on a manifesto of a hard, no-deal Brexit. The hope is that this achieves victory by absorbing Brexit Party support. The alternative is a Labour, LibDem, nationalist parties coalition limping on to a second General Election, suspending Article 50 in the process and splitting the country. Yuk!

There seems no optimistic way forward and the focus might as well be on enjoying the summer holidays, preferably at a safe distance from the imploding political system back at home.