‘Bumboys’, ‘piccaninnies’, ‘watermelon smiles’, ‘letter boxes’…We have had them all from the Tories’ runaway favourite for leader, Boris Johnson. A man who has been sacked twice for lying to his Editor and Party Leader. Other allegations swirl around him too. It won’t matter. The Tories are desperate and bored. He will overwhelm Hunt and be crowned PM in July. The only saving grace is that many of us will be out of the country on holiday then.
So it is time to look forward and see what a Johnson administration will be like. He will almost certainly assemble many of his London Mayoral team around him to manage the detail. Even his strongest supporters admit this is not his forte.
But in parliament:
- First the Cabinet. He will include several of the contenders. Almost certainly Hancock, Hunt and Javid. Gove and Leadsom’s futures are more uncertain. Rumours have it of Raab for Attorney General but not Truss for Chancellor. The quixotic but highly talented Rory Steward has ruled himself out of working with Johnson. One hopes his time will come although I doubt it. Grayling and probably Gauke will be gone too. It will be interesting to see what happens to Rudd and Rees-Mogg. Johnson will be keen to establish his One Nation credentials (ex-Brexit) which favours the former and hardly the latter!
- Lower ranks. After that there will be talented backers from the ‘next generation’ moving up the ministerial ranks such as James Cleverly, Kwasi Kwarteng, Rishi Sunak, Kit Malthouse to name but a few. Look at his earliest backers and then cross-check with the website ConservativeHome. As good a guide as any.
On policy:
- Brexit. The common view is that the EU will make minor concessions on the backstop. Just enough for Johnson to claim victory in the context of an extended transition period. If not, we are heading for a No Deal exit from the EU. It is ultimately difficult to see Parliament blocking this even with the help of the Speaker and would renegade Remain Tories bring down their own government in a no-confidence vote? We shall see.
- Economics. Forget those tax cuts for the better off, downgraded to an aspiration already. Infrastructure spending and a review of HS2 are on the cards but the latter will be kept on in some form. A bright committed thinker on social care (Hunt?) will make this a priority and there will be more money for schools.
- Foreign policy. A glamorous trip to the US beckons. Trump and the alt.right generally will embrace Johnson. Will Johnson be conventional, wary of a backlash back home? One doubts he cares and his ego and careless language may get the better of him. His Foreign Secretary will have his/her work cut out for them.
On the Opposition:
- Labour. Prime Ministers can be lucky and Johnson couldn’t be luckier. Despite no overall majority, he has Corbyn and a clumsily hostile SNP to deal with. When will Labour get their act together? Not this side of a General Election. They are hopelessly split and hopelessly led. One person to watch is Tom Watson, long predicted to be the next leader of the Labour Party by smart Guardian journalists, but wishful thinking I suspect.
- Liberal Democrats. Can you name their leadership contenders? I doubt it! Looking dreary at the moment but early days. If they get a sound economic policy in place then, in addition to their stance on Brexit, they may garner many moderate Tory voters. If polling suggests they could win 30/40/50 seats very difficult to see the Tories winning an overall majority in a future General Election, even if they do see off the Brexit Party, and an informal Lib/Lab alliance beckons. Hardly inspiring.
Almost nothing can touch Johnson at this stage. He is our Teflon Trump. But the role of PM is huge and cannot be filled by expert advisers alone. Many Tory MPs backing him know full well a Johnson administration may blow up within 12 months but just want him to deliver Brexit and Farage’s head on a plate first. A quick post Brexit General Election beckons and certainly one before 2022 if the Tories soar in the polls. Unlikely.
Can politics be entertaining and depressing at the same time? We are about to find out…
Inside Right Politics 