The Tory Party: 185 years in existence and in democratic terms, the most successful political force in history.  It has had its moments. The Corn Laws (1846) for example, which led to some 30 years in the wilderness, but this was a matter of economic common sense in the interests of all of Britain’s people. The Tories came back with a vengeance.

It achieved this unprecedented electoral success by being a pragmatic, centre-right party, which knew that a ruthless focus on power through delivering economic progress was the only objective that mattered.

Not now. It started with Thatcher; for many years a brilliant prime minister who, love her or loathe her, made the political weather and changed the direction of the country. She was actually quite pragmatic until the last few years and in her heyday would have never got us into this intractable mess with the EU. But she left office bitter, broken partly on the back of Europe although personal style mattered too. And on Party issues, she was never as benign as she professed. She began to turn the Tory Party into an ideological grouping and the seeds of its destruction were sown. Since 1992 it has only won one election with an overall majority. This new ideological approach was electoral suicide and the evidence is, well, evident.

And today, the Tories have still not learnt and are imploding. They are a rabble. A disgrace even, with able, moderate voices being extinguished by ideology from an increasingly unrepresentative, (of the electorate), shrinking membership generally, and the ERG wing in particular. It is the latter who have brought down May. Her many mistakes were dominated by ever believing that pandering to them would work. It needed more nimble, charismatic leadership to win. She needed to face up to her European extremists, in the process building alliances out of persuasion rather than necessity. Hey ho, we are where we are.

The EU elections were a well signalled disaster for the Tories. Farage, so much more able than most of his opponents, built a slick one issue campaign (take note remainers). He siphoned votes across the spectrum but particularly from the Tories and he did well. Hats off to him.

The Tories response? A further move to the right. Incredible. Probably at this stage Johnson or Raab, assuming they don’t blow up, will win the leadership, certainly if one of them reaches the final round of membership voting. They will pursue a no deal Brexit to head off Farage.

It will be the end of the Tory Party if either of them win. No liberal posturing on other policies will save it. This party was not built, and never succeeded, on the foundations of one issue. Its famed pragmatism would have led it to turn away from any act of national economic self-harm. And, in the past, even with its hostility to the EU, the Tory Party would never have voted for Johnson. He is a dangerous dissembler who carelessly flirts with the Alt. Right and its many dubious travellers, promoting divisive, jingoistic nationalism. The wider electorate know this.

On its current course, moderates will leave and by default the Tories will become a populist right-wing party, which will not win another election outright again. The centre-right/ centre/ centre-left (courtesy of Corbyn) ground is wide open and ripe for taking by a new generation of more talented politicians. If it wasn’t for the initial pain, you could almost feel optimistic!

At a client meeting the other day, a Chief Executive pointed me to a book by Joan Williams: ‘White Working Class; Overcoming Class Cluelessness in America’. It is a must for understanding the often complex reasons for the rise of populism in America and more widely. If you read it, get it, and are in a position to help implement solutions, you are on your way to defeating the populist surge we are joylessly experiencing.

Brexit…

But first, Brexit. I know…I know…I wasn’t going to mention it but Theresa May’s speech about a ‘big, bold gesture’ yesterday needs acknowledging. It was dead in the water before she sat down…All positions on Brexit have now become more entrenched – just watch the EU elections. Tories will not agree to a vote on a second referendum, Labour see no advantage in rescuing Theresa May. Her premiership is dead in the water. She will be replaced as PM probably by a hard Brexiteer. Europe will tell them to bog off as they seek a re-negotiated exit. There will likely be an inconclusive General Election and only a second People’s Vote will lay the issue to rest. Much more pain to come.

Back to the book…

Anyway, more positively, back to Joan Williams’ book. She debunks myths about Trump supporters based on strong evidence. They are not poor. Only 12% of his voters had annual incomes below $30k. The white working class who supported him have reasonable incomes and are hard working, blue collar participants who feel patronised by wealthy professionals and want it to stop. Their moral traits of drive and rigorous self discipline are admired more widely across the working class. Trump did better with some minorities than ever expected.

The ‘professional elite’ also like hard work of course but have time for being ‘disruptive’. They avoid the ‘traditional’ of character, morality and family values which are perceived as a key expression of class disadvantage. It sounds like culture wars. Oh dear.

Interestingly, according to Williams, the white working class admire the rich and don’t mind their tax cuts. Brash, wealthy celebrities epitomise the fantasy of being wildly rich whilst avoiding the ‘two-facedness’ of professionals. Think Trump. Many might not like his character but they don’t see him as hypocritical. Umm…

At the other end of the scale Trump supporters dislike those subsidies paid to the feckless very poor who have chaotic lives. Disproportionately black it can lead to racism but this needs to be carefully calibrated with hidden racism elsewhere and the attitudes of more successful ethnic minorities. Impatience spills into affirmative action towards women, some ethnic minorities and the LGBTQ community generally. It is not that the white working class are simply fired up with prejudice. They just feel ignored or insulted by disproportionate attention being focused elsewhere as their economic fortunes ‘tank’. And that, of course, leads us to globalisation, the death of traditional industries at the heart of Trump’s supporters and the popularity of trade wars.

Whether you like them or not, the attitudes of Trump’s supporters need to be understood and dealt with. A Trump supporter described it as ‘We’re voting with our middle finger’. Perfectly put but we don’t want it to continue!

So the solutions lie in re-training for those displaced by globalisation and that does not mean college degrees either but practical mid-level skills training seemingly looked down upon by the governing class. It means careful explaining of where government intervention works. It means compromise on the vital liberal issues of LGBTQ rights, race, religion and gender so they don’t crowd out tackling the economic decline and consequent downward mobility of the white working class. It is not an either, or, but has felt like it. Democrats can’t win alone on an alliance of the professional, mainly white class and minorities, particularly with the Electoral College constituted as it is. But the white working class should not have been disproportionately ignored anyway. Empathy, more evenly spread, is required.

Many won’t like this book and its classifications but it is well researched and written by a social liberal not a conservative. It deserves consideration.

Turning to the UK, some of the analogies don’t work such as America’s focus on religion and intense dislike of ‘big government’. But many do. UK regions outside the South East have felt ignored and patronised. The professions ‘look down’ on those who voted Brexit but standards of living have fallen relatively for many and they don’t feel globalisation or a remote, often arrogant EU, has benefited them. Immigration has increased the sense of threat. Training has too often focused on college degrees and not on those mid-level skills. Then there is housing…The list is long but understanding the cultural conflicts is key to changing attitudes and providing longer term policy solutions.

Just like in America, compromises can be made in all the priorities policy makers face, starting with a genuine understanding of the concerns of those outside the ‘professions’ generally and the South East in particular. We are all reasonable people and whilst Brexit might happen, if we do this, the populists can be repelled.

There you go. A more optimistic end to a blog at last!

The trauma of Brexit will go on endlessly; the major parties are split, the country is split. There is no way out and anyone who tells you otherwise is being untruthful.

These are the reasons:

1. There is no majority in the Commons for any Brexit solution; not a no-deal, Withdrawal Agreement, remain, Norway option, customs union, second vote or anything else.
2. It is unlikely the talks between Labour and the Conservatives will amount to anything. Most Tories will not accept even a temporary customs union, a deal on workers’ rights which ties the hand of future governments, let alone a second vote. Labour are wary of a second vote and are opposed to anything that doesn’t involve customs alignment and ultimately access to a single market. Labour also have no reason to bail Theresa May out.
3. There will be no imminent General Election. Electoral suicide for the Tories and DUP and may not even be attractive to Labour.
4. A new Tory leader, certainly inevitable this year (Theresa May I am afraid is finished), will not change any of the above calculations although their lack of legitimacy may bring an election closer. A Brexiteer will sow more division, a Remainer (that will be a Remainer who has changed their mind and campaigns for a relatively clean Brexit…) is unlikely to win but, if so, will also split the Tories. Neither option will create a majority solution in the Commons.
5. The revival of the Liberal Democrats in the local elections is promising but still largely tactical. Change UK or TIGs (who now cares?) have blown it.
6. In the European elections, despite polls suggesting a small Remain majority, Farage will triumph mostly at the expense of the Tories with the Remain parties ruining their chances since they can’t even form a Remain alliance for one pointless election.

We have a zombie government, a discredited political class and a divided public discourse which is corroding society. The country will be poorer for leaving the EU. We are already suffering a skills drain as EU citizens abandon the UK or are less attracted to come here.

Business is suffering in the black hole of not knowing when, if, or how we will leave the EU. Take the property sector, for example. Who would undertake major property deals in this vacuum?

Ignore growth figures and employment statistics. It is about the opportunity cost of what could have been had we not had this disruption.

Generational damage to this country by reckless politicians and our destructive decision to leave the EU is manifest everywhere. We need a new government, a General Election and a second vote. Actually no. We need a new political class of modern, outward facing leaders who are free from current obsessions and put the country before personal advancement.

You can see why many have had enough. That is probably 10 years away…