A trip to Eastern Europe beckons so there will be no blogging for a while. Post Easter, anything could have happened on Brexit so it is extremely dangerous to make any predictions. But where angels fear to tread…
The UK Government has asked the EU for an extension of our departure date to 30th June (previously already asked for and rejected) but Donald Tusk jumped the gun by floating a ‘flextension’. Yes, Brexit is even changing our language…The EU will potentially offer us a year-long extension which can be cut short if a deal is reached. Makes sense since nobody has faith in Theresa May, or indeed her successor, achieving anything soon and the timetable can’t keep being re-visited. My feeling is that the EU, as usual, will win this minor skirmish.
European parliamentary elections in the UK look more likely which will be a disaster for all. Brexiteer support will flourish in the UK and it could infect European politics more widely. What a proverbial car crash.
That takes us to the May/Corbyn talks. Wouldn’t you like to be a fly on that wall! The chances of these succeeding are slim as Theresa May would have to accept a customs union and possibly a People’s Vote, splitting her Party in the process. This has always been an anathema to her although she might simply have had enough. There are also dangers for Corbyn. If an agreement was reached he would then own the departure settlement which has perilous electoral implications for Labour.
That takes us full circle to the Withdrawal Agreement. Yes, shock, horror, it is still not dead and maybe the only chance to leave the EU soon. Surely, even hard Brexiteers get this. Umm…
So there you are. No more to add except, at least for now, Happy Groundhog Day!
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