Tackling populism at its root cause

‘It’s the economy stupid’…remember that phrase? It’s more relevant today than ever and the failure of capitalism to adapt post the 2007/08 crash, and its economic consequences, is a key reason for the rise of populism and the political crises we currently face.

Christine Roy via Unsplash

An excellent article in the FT last week, ‘Why American CEOs are worried about capitalism‘ highlighted the growing concern of leading business people about the future of the current economic system. You can see why. Inequalities of wealth are rising. The gap between CEOs’ remuneration and their workforce is expanding rapidly to pre-crash levels – a multiple north of 300x. Obscene.

Stock markets and corporate profits are at new highs but a Republican ‘man of the people’ President has cut corporation tax, shovelling more money into the pockets of the rich.

In a Gallup poll last year 51% of American 18-29 year olds had positive views of socialism, similar to previous polls. But the proportion with a similar view of capitalism has fallen from 68% in 2010 to 45% now.

The article makes reference to fear starting to compete with greed. Do captains of industry worry about a revolution? Possibly but it is a bit ‘rich’ taking lectures from the likes of Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase, the epitome of aggressive free market capitalism, when he apparently paid himself $30 million last year.

Closer to home, inequalities of wealth are rising despite a more progressive taxation policy. This has been written about in these blogs before but if you own a house in the UK and have investments, the last dozen years or so have been good to you. If you work in the public sector, rely on rented accommodation and state benefits, they have not.

All this inequality, fuelled by social media of course, has led to voters’ anger and rightly so. But the solution so far has been populism. Oh dear.

Politicians speaking directly to the less well off, blaming globalisation, corruption and seeking solutions in economic nationalism are tempting siren voices. You can’t blame ordinary voters for supporting this analysis since everyone else has mostly failed to implement reforms that address core inequalities.

But the temptations should be resisted. Actions such as leaving the EU or the election of Trump and Italian and Eastern European populist governments for example will not improve the lives of voters. They will ultimately make people poorer, and at the expense of weaker democratic structures.

Responsible governments and, equally important, business, need to wake up, reduce disparities of wealth and work in the interests of all stakeholders. Global corporations need to pay their taxes! More long-term investment in infrastructure, social housing, health and well-being generally, and green technology in particular, to improve the environment we live in, is required. There are some good initiatives outside government from supporting organisations such as Focusing Capital on the Long Term (FCLTGlobal) and Coalition for Inclusive Capitalism to make our economic systems work better but these are barely scratching the surface.

This is an argument for the survival of mixed economy capitalism not a replacement of it, supported by democratic, transparent institutions. Our economic structures need to get back to their more inclusive past otherwise the lurch to populism will continue to the detriment of all of us, not least those most economically vulnerable.

Why moderates should fear European parliamentary elections

Oh dear… Moderates Never Learn. Returning from a vacation in Eastern Europe where politics is starting to look positively benign in comparison to the UK, I see Farage is on the rampage.

And why not; he has a simple message. The EU is bad, British politics is broken, the 52% have been betrayed. Simple, powerful messages to an electorate who is fed up: fed up of Brexit, fed up of austerity, fed up of nothing getting done, fed up of feckless politicians. The list is endless and they can fight back with Farage.

In the other camps, chaos reigns. The Tories want to ditch their leader and literally loathe each other. Their MPs, even moderate Brexiteers, are increasingly at odds with each other and their membership, some facing deselection. Labour are torn between a customs union solution, Remain and a People’s Vote. Two thirds of Labour supporters voted Remain but this is not reflected by the same proportion of constituencies. They are as split as the Tories, with moderates also facing deselection for multitudinous reasons, but can hide it somewhat as they are not in government.

Chuka Umunna (via Independent)

But the real problem, as ever in this polarised world, lies with the centre ground. Change UK or is it The Independent Group (?), vie with the Liberal Democrats, the Greens (probably on Europe only) and what few moderates there are left in the major parties, for the votes of where most of the public lies. And they are failing.

No single message. No single message even on Europe. They hand-wring intelligently on the nuances of policy whilst the public can’t discern what on earth they stand for. An article from Chuka Umunna in yesterday’s Independent talks intelligently ‘as a pluralist who believes tribalism is overrated’ on why a single Remain party can’t be formed, why candidates from similar minded parties can’t stand aside for each other, etc etc.

They are principled and refreshing; but will lose and lose heavily. In this era of populism the public currently has no patience for cross-party, nuanced messages. Farage will triumph if the EU elections go ahead, Labour will be weakened and the Tories flattened. As for the middle ground…I am reminded of that picture of a black hole…light sucked into oblivion by the force of gravity.

The centre ground is where the country should be governed from. ‘Muscular moderatism’ should triumph. But it won’t as currently presented. We better hope these European elections don’t happen.

A brief update on Brexit…

A trip to Eastern Europe beckons so there will be no blogging for a while. Post Easter, anything could have happened on Brexit so it is extremely dangerous to make any predictions. But where angels fear to tread…

The UK Government has asked the EU for an extension of our departure date to 30th June (previously already asked for and rejected) but Donald Tusk jumped the gun by floating a ‘flextension’. Yes, Brexit is even changing our language…The EU will potentially offer us a year-long extension which can be cut short if a deal is reached. Makes sense since nobody has faith in Theresa May, or indeed her successor, achieving anything soon and the timetable can’t keep being re-visited. My feeling is that the EU, as usual, will win this minor skirmish.

European parliamentary elections in the UK look more likely which will be a disaster for all. Brexiteer support will flourish in the UK and it could infect European politics more widely. What a proverbial car crash.

That takes us to the May/Corbyn talks. Wouldn’t you like to be a fly on that wall! The chances of these succeeding are slim as Theresa May would have to accept a customs union and possibly a People’s Vote, splitting her Party in the process. This has always been an anathema to her although she might simply have had enough. There are also dangers for Corbyn. If an agreement was reached he would then own the departure settlement which has perilous electoral implications for Labour.

That takes us full circle to the Withdrawal Agreement. Yes, shock, horror, it is still not dead and maybe the only chance to leave the EU soon. Surely, even hard Brexiteers get this. Umm…

So there you are. No more to add except, at least for now, Happy Groundhog Day!

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

No Brexit commentary today. By Wednesday, we could have a Withdrawal Agreement, Theresa May’s resignation, a softer Brexit option, the implosion of the Government, more pointers to a General Election, a second referendum…Time to wait a little.

So let’s look elsewhere, at politics overseas. There has actually been, or there are about to be, some seismic changes.

(NBC News / CQ-Roll Call, Inc. / Getty Images)

North America

Trump survived the Mueller inquiry intact as expected…sadly. He is too stupid and disorgansised to have actually colluded with Russia even if they helped him win his election. This leaves the Democrats high and dry. They are disappointing at best. They failed to manage expectations around the inquiry, see the answer to Trump as moving further to the Left and have a myriad of mediocre candidates (ex Beto O’Rourke?) for President in 2020. The leading two Democrat figures are Biden and Sanders aged 76 and 77 respectively, the former now caught up in a ‘me-too’ moment of indiscretion. Oh dear, Trump is on course for a second term.

In Canada, the previously popular Trudeau is fighting for his political life after a corruption scandal. He is alleged to have influenced a bribery inquiry involving the engineering and construction firm SNC-Lavalin, a company helpful to him in Quebec. He has lost his top adviser and two cabinet ministers so far and really should resign if he is seen to have led a cover-up. Like many charismatic centre-left politicians, he should pay the price for his hypocrisy. However, liberal democratic politics can ill afford such mistakes.

Populism 2, Liberalism 0.

Middle East

Israel’s PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, is to be indicted on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, but with his formidable nationalistic, fear-mongering campaigning skills, is possibly on course to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat in Israel’s elections on 9th April. He has ratcheted up anti-Arab rhetoric, claiming Israel is for Jews alone, and is pursuing a successful dirty tricks campaign against his lead opponent, the less experienced but highly respected former leader of the Israeli army, Benny Gantz. If the Trump-loving (it is mutual) Netanyahu wins, he will insist all charges are dropped against him and there will be no Middle East peace initiatives for a generation.

Populism 0 (1), Liberalism 0.

South America

The homophobic, nationalist, possibly corrupt (even though elected to combat corruption!), Trump-loving President Bolsonaro of Brazil, advised by a fan of Steve Bannon, wanted to commemorate the country’s former military regime with celebrations at garrisons nationwide yesterday.  He recently stated that ‘democracy and freedom only exist’ insofar as the armed forces wanted it. Only the intervention of the generals, now seen as the main force of social cohesion following Bolsonaro’s election, restrained him saying ‘that time has ended’.

Populism 1, Liberalism 0, Generals 1

Eastern Europe

In the Ukraine, a comedian (not knowingly a Trump supporter) has just won the first round of Ukraine’s presidential elections, second round 21st April. Playing a teacher who is unexpectedly elected president in a TV series, with no political experience, he is seen as an antidote to corruption and low standards of living. We shall see.

In Turkey, Erdogan faced crucial local elections yesterday. Terrified his party, the AKP, could lose control of Ankara and Istanbul (looks like they have) due to widespread voter discontent, he sought to make the elections about national security and to quote the FT; ‘survival in the face of threats from a dark alliance of external and internal foes’. Food prices have been suppressed, the lira has been artificially boosted and debt is running out of control. An economic crisis is imminent. 

Populism 2, Liberalism 0 so far

Lastly Brunei…

Their new laws come into effect this week.which will punish adultery and homosexual sex with death by stoning. Quite Game of Thrones.

Populism 10, Liberalism 0

Total: Populism 15 (16), Liberalism 0, Generals 1. And that is before we know about the final chapters of Brexit…