What a period of Mayhem. There was no majority for Theresa May’s deal second time around and no majority for no-deal. Parliament is gridlocked and poisonous, the clock is running down and Brexiteers see their chance of ever leaving the EU diminish by the day.
That is why May is likely to get her deal through at the very, very last minute. Unloved though it is, it is Brexiteers’ only guarantee of ever leaving the EU in the foreseeable future.
And May’s deal should really please everyone ex the side-show of the back-stop. The UK leaves the EU with 21 months to forge a new trading relationship. It allows Brexiteers to negotiate a clean break. It allows Remainers a chance to reverse the decision one way or another, possibly encompassing a ‘Norway option’ during this time.
If we can bear to look forward, the next issue is who are the casualties of all this chaos?
First, the Prime Minister. Theresa May made many initial mistakes with her red lines and triggering Article 50 which all unravelled when she lost her majority in an unnecessary General Election. But since then she has been tenacious; admirable in her dedication to getting a deal done which she believes delivers on the referendum result (whatever people understood by their vote), and which rescues her reputation.
The problem is that her suspicious, distrusting, unfriendly, often wooden approach to her premiership has allowed her enemies to multiply. There has been no bridge/coalition building. No reaching out to make new friends in seeking a deal. No sense that she can think laterally and ‘out of the box’ to create new solutions. Her rigid focus has been her strength but ultimately her fatal weakness.
Many thought she would soldier on post March 29th for quite a while, drifting closer to the next election with perhaps a wild hope she could defy the odds and fight in 2022. No longer. She has been wounded too many times; her colleagues are sick of her. From all sides of the EU debate, her Party wants a new leader and a fresh approach to the next chapter with Europe and, indeed, domestic policies generally. She will go before she is pushed, ahead of November. She will have to find a life outside politics, but with a legacy certainly better than her predecessor.
Second, and a fervent hope, the next casualty will be the DUP. How unedifying watching this recalcitrant, prejudiced, mediocre bunch of old cronies hold the government to ransom. Nobody, ex the Right of the Tory Party, likes them or wants them. Northern Ireland voted to remain, future Tory governments will want their revenge. They will be rightly punished at the next election if not before.
Last, the Tories’ European Research Group. Awful in their disloyalty, grandstanding, and hatred of the EU, any future leader of the Tory Party, from whatever wing, will want to distance themselves from them. If they do not, The Independent Group will flourish, fueled by Tory defections, and the Tories will be out of power for a generation, if not forever as currently constituted.
Hard to believe, but ultimately some good one way or another may come out of this awful mess.
Inside Right Politics 