A fascinating poll in last week’s FT confirms what many of us know as we argue vociferously with friends, family and colleagues over Brexit. Britons now identify much more strongly with Remain or Leave tribes than with political parties. 77% very or fairly strongly identify with views on Europe compared to just 35% who identify on the same basis with political parties.
The split on Brexit is brought home by attitudes towards a second vote. Remain voters want another referendum regardless of how such a vote is framed. Leavers’ views vary with only 10% wanting one (versus 2/3rds of Remainers) if there is an option presented of remaining in the EU.
A second referendum would split the country and probably solve nothing anyway. Although all five polls this year show Remain in the lead, the vote is close and anything could happen in a referendum campaign. Why would there be more honesty in campaigning second time around?
So that really leaves us with the PM’s Withdrawal Agreement. Disliked by everyone, it is just about reluctantly acceptable as a compromise for everyone if all else fails. This is what is happening. There is the small issue of the EU agreeing to re-negotiate the Irish backstop…umm…but this week it still feels the most likely outcome.
So the real divide in British politics today is Europe and it will continue post almost any version of a Withdrawal Agreement. The two sides are increasingly clearly defined; moderate, socially liberal, mixed economy supporters, not threatened by the EU, versus the hard right and left who may disagree economically but are socially more illiberal on the whole and see the EU as either a capitalist or socialist conspiracy. Incredible, and well done Corbyn, for his contribution to this impasse when he could have achieved so much more.
So it seems now is the time for a new centrist party. Step up the David Millibands, Yvette Coopers, Chris Leslies and Chuka Umunnas of this world. Today’s Labour Party has abandoned you and you represent a settled consensus across much of the country based on today’s political dividing lines. You never know, if Tory madness continues, many moderate Tories may join you too.
That just leaves an anti EU alliance on the other side of the debate arguing among themselves about whether a pure socialist or free market nirvana awaits us in a post EU future. It sounds like political hell and is probably what they deserve.
Inside Right Politics 