A week on and what do we know? Very little except Labour’s Tom Watson is taking the split more seriously than Corbyn. Nine Labour MPs have left their party, eight forming a new group. Joined by three Tories, the Independent Group has legs.

But these are Labour legs. Corbyn is a disaster. Stubborn, ignorant and stupid. He is building a far left party riven with Stalinism and anti-semitism. His international policy embraces Putin and Maduro. On economics, there is no room even for moderate capitalism, which is why he dislikes the EU and its strictures on state aid. The split with his colleagues is across the board, philosophically and policy-wise.

The Independent Group is therefore a real alternative to today’s Labour Party and many more Labour MPs may join. Pro EU, a mixed economy, NATO and for social justice that accepts inequalities of outcomes providing people have an equal start in life; one day it could be a powerful threat to both Labour and the Tories: Blairite without the baggage.

Not today, however. The Conservative Party remains largely intact and will stay that way…for now. The schism amongst Tories is mainly about Brexit, and in this respect, the defection of the three Tory MPs is oddly timed. Why not wait and see what May delivers? If the Withdrawal Agreement gets over the line there is still scope to push for a second referendum during a transition period, which is what most seems to unite these three.

My feeling is the Tories will re-group post March assuming no no-deal armageddon. There is still more that unites than divides them. Widely differing views on hard and soft versions of a free market economy have always existed and been accommodated through compromise. Many MPs will also want a close, constructive relationship with the EU going forward.

Except…except…This is all on the proviso that Tory MPs free themselves from an often extremist clique and a bullying party membership, ultimately reverting back to a more non-ideological stance; moving closer to the centre ground, where winning elections and holding power are what matter. But if leaving the EU continues a further lurch to the right, with fierce in-fighting over a future relationship with Europe and purer free market economics, then all bets are off. More moderate Tory MPs will desert to the Independence Group and then it becomes an equal menace to both major parties.

How will this resolve itself? Assuming there is no implosion of the government in the coming weeks, then all eyes should focus on the Tory leadership. I detect a hardening of opinion against Theresa May and I doubt she can survive beyond 2019 regardless of the outcome on Europe. She is almost entirely friendless now, with her seemingly narrow, unimaginative, suspicious (who can blame her suspicions!) premiership alienating too many colleagues.

Time for a change. But if that wind of change comes from a direction anywhere near the European Research Group then watch the Independent Group prosper from all sides. And like today’s Labour Party, the Tories will get exactly what they deserve.

The country’s governing class is enmeshed and transfixed by Brexit and there is little bandwidth for any other policy initiatives. That is a problem. Some of society’s imbalances which contributed to Brexit in the first place are getting worse.

Austerity was a necessary initial response to collapsing public finances post the crash of 2008 but few predicted the impact of quantitative easing (essentially pumping money into the financial system) that accompanied it.

Fuelled by cheap cash, surging house prices and stock markets over the past decade have resulted in huge disparities of wealth. If you own property and shares you have done well. If you rent, rely heavily on benefits and public services, and are employed in the public sector, you have not. Austerity was always the ‘boiling frog’ of politics. Its real impact, initially almost imperceptible, gradually gets worse. The pain after 9 years, as cut lands on cut, is now excruciating.

Theresa May rashly said the age of austerity was over starting with an ill-thought out cash bung at the NHS, but it is not. In England and Wales, 40% of councils anticipate further cuts to front-line services rising to 71% regarding social care services. Central government funding cuts to local authorities since 2010/11 have now reached nearly 50% according to the National Audit Office. Short term cash boosts to paper over the cracks have made little impact.

Zero or sub-inflation rises in public sector remuneration are now also really biting. Teachers’ pay, for example, to name just one public service, is down nearly 10% in real terms causing recruitment shortages across the board.

And then a perfect storm of higher utility bills has just arrived. This week it was announced energy bills could rise by as much as 10% for 15 million households along with council tax rises of 5%. Again according to the National Audit Office, an estimated 8.3 million people in the UK are unable to pay off debts or household bills.

Our economy is one of the largest in the world, but pressures are building. Growth is grinding to a halt as Brexit bites and inequalities and the north/south divide continue to expand as austerity bites. Whilst record levels of employment are a real success of this government, many jobs are poorly paid, long hours service roles. Productivity and business investment are weak and our relatively small manufacturing base could be further eviscerated by leaving Europe.

What is most needed, as a minimum, are constructive, well thought out reforms to social care (green paper currently stalled due to lack of ministerial time), housing and taxation (subjects for another blog) from a talented, moderate Tory government. To coin a phrase, however, that sounds like a reference to ‘unicorn politics’; the involvement of a beautiful, magical beast who happens to take an interest in politics but doesn’t actually exist…

Society’s imbalances, will be made worse by leaving Europe but the government is unable or unwilling to alleviate the pain. Just like austerity, it feels Brexit is another of those ‘boiling frog’ policies. The consequences will only dawn on many of us (just ask Sunderland…) when it is too late.

A fascinating poll in last week’s FT confirms what many of us know as we argue vociferously with friends, family and colleagues over Brexit. Britons now identify much more strongly with Remain or Leave tribes than with political parties. 77% very or fairly strongly identify with views on Europe compared to just 35% who identify on the same basis with political parties.

The split on Brexit is brought home by attitudes towards a second vote. Remain voters want another referendum regardless of how such a vote is framed. Leavers’ views vary with only 10% wanting one (versus 2/3rds of Remainers) if there is an option presented of remaining in the EU.

A second referendum would split the country and probably solve nothing anyway. Although all five polls this year show Remain in the lead, the vote is close and anything could happen in a referendum campaign. Why would there be more honesty in campaigning second time around?

So that really leaves us with the PM’s Withdrawal Agreement. Disliked by everyone, it is just about reluctantly acceptable as a compromise for everyone if all else fails. This is what is happening. There is the small issue of the EU agreeing to re-negotiate the Irish backstop…umm…but this week it still feels the most likely outcome.

So the real divide in British politics today is Europe and it will continue post almost any version of a Withdrawal Agreement. The two sides are increasingly clearly defined; moderate, socially liberal, mixed economy supporters, not threatened by the EU, versus the hard right and left who may disagree economically but are socially more illiberal on the whole and see the EU as either a capitalist or socialist conspiracy. Incredible, and well done Corbyn, for his contribution to this impasse when he could have achieved so much more.

So it seems now is the time for a new centrist party. Step up the David Millibands, Yvette Coopers, Chris Leslies and Chuka Umunnas of this world. Today’s Labour Party has abandoned you and you represent a settled consensus across much of the country based on today’s political dividing lines. You never know, if Tory madness continues, many moderate Tories may join you too.

That just leaves an anti EU alliance on the other side of the debate arguing among themselves about whether a pure socialist or free market nirvana awaits us in a post EU future. It sounds like political hell and is probably what they deserve.