Predictions for 2019; sadly more of the same

This time last year, eight predictions were made; five were correct, two were wrong and there was one score draw. Not bad versus the ‘paid commentariat’ so I venture out boldly to guide readers through 2019…umm…

Recapping predictions for 2018 provides a good insight into what might happen this year:

There was no General Election and Theresa May held on; the Liberal Democrats went nowhere; Angela Merkel announced her departure; Trump did better than expected in the midterms and, Mueller notwithstanding, looks set for an eight year term; the global economy remained strong. Only the Tories deteriorating electorally and Macron shining were wrong. Iran was the score draw.

So how does that leave us for 2019? Almost anything could happen, but here we go…

• Brexit. The self-harm will continue. The PM will get some version of her deal through the Commons (not first time round) as there is no consensus on any other solution. She will fight against an extension of the 29th March Brexit date as it imperils her premiership; but be prepared for a nail-biting finish. There will be no second referendum.
• Theresa May.  She will stay on as PM due to her resilience and the fact there is no immediate alternative. Last year’s leadership vote bought her 12 months. She will refresh her Cabinet and there will be no General Election. The Tories realise they need a stronger leader to reboot our relationship with the EU during the transition period so prepare for an earlier change than she wants in 2020.
• The Opposition. Labour will go nowhere under Corbyn who will stay on as leader. He and his front bench lack any credibility and have mostly played Brexit very badly. The public see this which is why incredibly the Tories continue to stay up in the polls, regardless of their behaviour.
• A new party? The Liberal Democrats are dead in the water. It is now or never for a new centrist party which will be launched in 2019. Despite a glittering start, it will not succeed in such a bi-polar political environment. We will end up with the politicians we deserve!
• Europe. In Germany, Merkel will go earlier than expected, possibly this year but certainly not in 2021 as she hopes. In a similar vein to May, there will be a time sooner rather than later when her party will have had more than enough. In France, Macron will never be popular but will recover his poise and stick broadly to his course. Despite his clumsy arrogance, my does Europe need him.
• North America. The Mueller enquiry will damage Trump but not fatally. He will not be impeached and stays on course for eight years…unless the Democrats pull their act together and nominate a credible opponent (Beto O’Rourke?)
• Economics. China will wobble economically but will manage to stay on course. Its hegemony will continue to grow buoyed by a fairly stable global economy (not necessarily in stock market terms) and Trump continuing to withdraw the US from the world stage.

There you go. Not exciting, not much fun, but plenty for commentators to get their teeth into. For those dismayed by UK politics in particular, or who are simply not interested, it may be time to take up a new hobby or, even better, move abroad…say…continental Europe?

Happy New Year!