Brexit just gets bleaker…

It was my Company’s annual seminar yesterday and I was really pleased to have Matthew Parris as our guest speaker. The content of his talk, however, couldn’t have been bleaker.

The Government is in huge chaos over Brexit; we are heading for a constitutional crisis; politicians or indeed journalists have no idea what will happen next; the Conservative Party is split down the middle; the Brexit ‘Taliban” wing (my words) of the Party is more than happy to shove the country over a cliff edge; the Opposition are useless. The list goes on…

What is certainly the case is that Brexit will make this country poorer and more irrelevant on the world stage. It is an unprecedented act of national self-harm.

So on this cheery note, here are the odds on possible outcomes. See it as a humble guide to what might happen next:

1. The likelihood of TM’s deal going through the House of Commons in its current form? Despite seemingly insurmountable opposition, enough MPs might just reach the conclusion there is no alternative hence the relatively high percentage score. 30%
2. If the Meaningful Vote fails, the likelihood of TM resigning? She has hung on so far and seems able to take unbelievable amounts of punishment in the name of public duty. 10%
3. A second vote on a slightly amended TM deal? 50%
4. Back to the drawing board with a humiliating request to the EU to delay our departure? This would almost certainly end TM’s premiership but is probably one of the more likely outcomes. 40%
5. New start. Approval of the Withdrawal Agreement only, followed by a negotiated Norway option – partly based on outcome 4) above? Unlikely. The Europeans would probably object, it doesn’t solve the immigration issue and TM would almost certainly have to resign if this was pursued.  But it also has powerful supporters. 30%
6. Implosion of the Conservative Party in its current form? Unlikely. Even they recognise the dangers of Turkeys voting for Christmas. 10%
7. General Election? Least likely option. It would tear the Conservative Party apart. Corbyn as PM. See Turkeys comment above. 5%
8. A People’s Vote? Unlikely as no consensus on the question. TM would almost certainly have to resign or navigate a stunning U-turn. The EU departure date would have to be put back particularly if the Tories seek a new leader. It will only happen if the country faces a constitutional crisis. 30%
9. A new centre party? In the near term 10%. In the medium term 50%

There you go. No certainty in any direction. Nobody really knows what is going to happen but after the economic forecasts of yesterday we will all suffer financially and a constitutional crisis beckons. An environment full of opportunity but only if you are a journalist…