It was my Company’s annual seminar yesterday and I was really pleased to have Matthew Parris as our guest speaker. The content of his talk, however, couldn’t have been bleaker.

The Government is in huge chaos over Brexit; we are heading for a constitutional crisis; politicians or indeed journalists have no idea what will happen next; the Conservative Party is split down the middle; the Brexit ‘Taliban” wing (my words) of the Party is more than happy to shove the country over a cliff edge; the Opposition are useless. The list goes on…

What is certainly the case is that Brexit will make this country poorer and more irrelevant on the world stage. It is an unprecedented act of national self-harm.

So on this cheery note, here are the odds on possible outcomes. See it as a humble guide to what might happen next:

1. The likelihood of TM’s deal going through the House of Commons in its current form? Despite seemingly insurmountable opposition, enough MPs might just reach the conclusion there is no alternative hence the relatively high percentage score. 30%
2. If the Meaningful Vote fails, the likelihood of TM resigning? She has hung on so far and seems able to take unbelievable amounts of punishment in the name of public duty. 10%
3. A second vote on a slightly amended TM deal? 50%
4. Back to the drawing board with a humiliating request to the EU to delay our departure? This would almost certainly end TM’s premiership but is probably one of the more likely outcomes. 40%
5. New start. Approval of the Withdrawal Agreement only, followed by a negotiated Norway option – partly based on outcome 4) above? Unlikely. The Europeans would probably object, it doesn’t solve the immigration issue and TM would almost certainly have to resign if this was pursued.  But it also has powerful supporters. 30%
6. Implosion of the Conservative Party in its current form? Unlikely. Even they recognise the dangers of Turkeys voting for Christmas. 10%
7. General Election? Least likely option. It would tear the Conservative Party apart. Corbyn as PM. See Turkeys comment above. 5%
8. A People’s Vote? Unlikely as no consensus on the question. TM would almost certainly have to resign or navigate a stunning U-turn. The EU departure date would have to be put back particularly if the Tories seek a new leader. It will only happen if the country faces a constitutional crisis. 30%
9. A new centre party? In the near term 10%. In the medium term 50%

There you go. No certainty in any direction. Nobody really knows what is going to happen but after the economic forecasts of yesterday we will all suffer financially and a constitutional crisis beckons. An environment full of opportunity but only if you are a journalist…

The Brexit deal is a mess. Riddled with inconsistencies and with much heavy lifting to do in the transition period, it simply perpetuates uncertainty for another 18 months. The betting is that the transition period will be extended and this is what really scares hard Brexiteers. They fear we may never leave or not without a “Peoples’ Vote” which becomes more legitimate if it is several years hence. Hooray…they should be scared!

May’s deal leaves the UK as a EU rule taker without representation. It is unique to the UK but not in a good way. We had a unique deal in the first place with an EU budget rebate, being outside the Schengen Agreement and also the working time directive. None of this was discussed in the referendum let alone Northern Ireland, backstop agreements and an accurate, honest assessment of the divorce bill.

The politicians in this country have ironically been in full control of damaging the UK’s future. Congratulations to them. They have succeeded.

Yet it could have been worse… Admittedly a Norway style agreement might have worked better but this was long off the table. That left us with a no-deal scenario and everyone I have spoken to in government says they are sitting on information that would scare the public to death. The complacency of the Tories’ hard right, in the face of facts they well know, is genuinely shocking.

So well done Theresa May for getting some sort of deal. Her tenacity and sense of public duty in crossing a temporary finish line is magnificent to behold. The punishment she has taken from colleagues, particularly from those wishing to remove her at a crucial stage of negotiations, is quite frankly a disgrace; the experience of watching the dramas unfold has been akin to a scary fairground ride or horror movie; the Opposition, not fit to hold that title, has opposed with ignorance, stupidity and self-serving drivel. The Prime Minister deserves a medal, her Party does not.

As for the future? My guess is that TM gets the deal passed, incredible as that seems at the moment, and hangs on to the Tory leadership for longer than people expect. Do Labour then lose patience with Corbyn? Not this side of the election.

As for the Tory Party as a whole? It has lost its reputation for loyalty, competence and common sense. It should fear a new centrist party as much as anyone. And for the mess they have put this country in, sad to say, it deserves everything it gets.

Look at the sorry cast so far; the DUP, Corbyn’s Labour Party, Boris Johnson, David Davis, Iain Duncan-Smith…the list goes on. And now Dominic Raab and Esther McVey. What happened to collective cabinet responsibility? None of them have really succeeded in their jobs or could be perceived ever to do so.

We will have weeks of grandstanding, tantrums and further resignations whilst the small issue of the country’s future hangs in the balance. But in reality will Theresa May prevail? The answer, if she gets through the next few days, is still probably.

And why? Because this deal is the best balance that can be achieved in the face of fierce fire from all sides.

Those at the heart of government know how serious a no-deal would be. It has been under-played to avoid seeming like another chapter in ‘project fear’ but the threats to supply lines, from industry to food and medicines, are very real, as is the damage which would be inflicted on the economy overall. The blasé dismissal of these threats by the hard Brexiteers is an abrogation of responsible government.

The deal that has been negotiated by the PM, as we currently understand it, buys sufficient time to allow those who support Brexit to deliver a clear plan with minimal disruption to the economy. Admittedly, there are hostages to fortune; but at this stage I would rather my captor was the EU than the sorry list of those above.

So what now? There could be more resignations and TM may be challenged for the Tory leadership. I trust she will decide to hold on but who could blame her if she said she has had enough!

If the Tories don’t implode in the next few days, the real battle will take place in the House of Commons. If the PM fails to get the deal through, she could resign or try again. A second failure would certainly lead to an interim Tory leader, a humiliating request to extend the EU departure date whilst there is a leadership election, and then a new Tory leader who would restart the clock. The least likely option is a General Election.  The Tories couldn’t stomach the possibility of losing.

However, the real pressure is now on Labour moderates in the face of Corbyn’s shameless approach to Brexit. Will they put the country’s future in the hands of sensible centre ground politicians, or the right and left-wing extremists on either side of them? The centre is where the electorate lies; it is where the country’s future lies. A General Election, or even a second referendum at some stage, will confirm this.

Meanwhile the time for compromise is over. It is time for ‘muscular moderation’ to reassert itself amongst the sorry mess called Brexit.

Nowadays, you go to bed on election night with a sort of dread of what you will wake up to in the morning. First Brexit, then Trump, followed by the Tories losing their overall majority in the 2017 General Election, giving the whip-hand to the hard Brexiteers.

So it was with a sigh of relief that I woke up this morning to the news that the Democrats had taken the House of Representatives in the US midterm elections. But it wasn’t good enough. The Democrats should have wiped the floor with this most divisive of presidents. The fact they didn’t just confirms deep frustrations with the quality of opposition to Trump.

In the Senate the Republicans gained Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota. There was evidence they would lose Florida but seem not to have done – it has gone to a recount. What is it about Florida?

My recent trip to the US brought home to me the dominance of the Trump agenda. It is about Him, economic nationalism and external threats such as immigration and unfair trade practices. He is everywhere and the Democrats are nowhere. Protest politics from the likes of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are not enough when the economy is booming, there is a sense of injustice amongst many sections of the electorate, and race and immigration issues are demonised.

The Democrats need a new centre-ground agenda, a fresh faced leader and real fight. Sadly it won’t be the defeated Senate candidate for Texas, Beto O’Rourke, at least not yet…

So what happens now? Dangers lurk just as much for the Democrats as for the Republicans. Legislative gridlock beckons now the Democrats have seized the House of Representatives but this provides an easy target for Trump and could provide a launch pad for a 2020 victory. Plenty of other presidential incumbents using this tactic come to mind… Clinton and Obama to name just two…Meanwhile Trump can continue his controversial appointments including a slew of conservative judicial ones through the Senate unheeded.

The future of this divided nation is more uncertain than ever and the vicious level of debate takes place in the most benign of economic circumstances. Just imagine when the economy turns as it surely will under a burden of debt, rising interest rates and lack of much need legislative reform?

The US stock market is up so far today. Quite why I don’t know. It is clearly not an accurate predictor of the political risks ahead.

 

 

Nothing on the UK’s Budget this week. It was well leaked and consequently boring. You just hope the Government doesn’t lose its reputation for prudence, which is the only really positive attribute it has left…

More important just now is analysis published this week by the Living Planet Report 2018, compiled by the Zoological Society of London and the conservation charity, WWF, concluding that humans are to blame for a staggering 60% loss of the world’s wildlife from 1970 to 2014, the most recent year for which data is available.

The list of damage done is depressing. Elephants in Tanzania down by 60% since 2009, grey parrots in Ghana down 98% since 1992 and Borneo’s orangutans down by 50% in just 16 years. These are just a few of the alarming statistics.

‘Exploding human consumption’ is the culprit as palm oil, soy plantations, dams, roads and overfishing chew up vast tracts of wildlife habitat.

We have Trump in the White House tearing up international agreements, now Bolsonaro in Brazil who may allow even greater deforestation there and, to cap it all, China has just lifted a ban on rhino and tiger ‘remedies’.

Have we ever had a more irresponsible governing class globally, who seem to be racing to destroy the planet for the next generation? Great campaigns on global warming and removing plastic from the seas are something; but if world leaders don’t play ball more widely, we have no chance of improving our environment in all senses.

And where are young people in all this? If they cared enough and voted, they would be a force to be reckoned with in key democracies. We don’t need votes for 16 year olds. Just getting decent numbers of 18-24 year olds out to vote would be a start. If it is not too much of a stretch, there are similarities with Brexit here in the UK. Like Brexit, the disastrous impact of our actions on the environment and the wildlife we share it with disproportionately affects younger generations. We need a generation of activists. Get onto it!

In addition, the UN needs to be more aggressive, the EU bolder and, yes, governments more interventionist driven by the concerns of the electorate. The dire consequences of the race to ever cheaper food in western countries must be articulated. A laissez-faire approach is no longer an option. There isn’t the time.