I am a Remainer. Always have been, always will be. But even I felt the urge to shout f**k off at the TV as I watched Donald Tusk give his statement that the Chequers solution for the UK’s departure had been wholly rejected by EU leaders at their summit in Salzburg. The language was blunt, Theresa May ambushed and dismissed. The attitude had arrogance written all over it.
The problem with those EU leaders driving an ever closer union is that they are out of touch with their electorates and certainly the Commission is out of touch with almost everyone. It has fuelled populism and provided an easy target for those advocating Brexit.
In treating Theresa May so badly, they continue to be blind to the consequences of their actions. It may fuel a rise in support for Brexit, and I suspect a rise in support for Theresa ‘the battler’ May. She came out fighting today and pictures of her isolated at the summit in a striking red jacket facing a gang of mostly white, bullying European male leaders will resonate with all sections of the British electorate. A People’s Vote should no longer be seen as a route back to EU membership. Well done Merkel and Macron…not.
However, the UK has always underestimated the strength of commitment of Germany and France to the EU as a political project. Our negotiators in advocating a Chequers solution which threatened this have made the same mistake again. A deal will probably still be done but don’t bank on it. Theresa May politically can’t budge from where she is and has thrown down the gauntlet to the EU. The EU will find it difficult to backtrack from here. There is either some brilliant acting going on or a ‘no deal’ is now a real possibility. Oh dear.
The obvious solution to this impasse is to join the European Free Trade Association a la Norway (see an earlier blog). This could be sold as stage 1 of a decisive break from the EU with an extended transition period leading to further escape routes from the EU’s embrace. Sounds like Michael Gove? Umm…what is this disastrous process turning us into…
The problem with this solution is that it crosses Theresa May’s foolish red lines and she would have to go. A General Election? Corbyn? None of these options are palatable to the Tories so for the time being we stay as we are. A ‘no deal’ is possible with really serious consequence for the EU as well as the UK and all because arrogant European leaders in Salzburg overplayed their hand.
Inside Right Politics 