First, the pantomime from Boris. A 4200 word ‘please notice me’ advertisement in The Telegraph shamefully putting personal ambition before the interests of the Government and the Country. Then on Friday came a serious, concrete proposal by the Prime Minister in her speech in Florence ensuring no impact on the EU’s current budget from our departure. This would mean no country having to fill our contribution space in the interim period.
As the phrase goes, ‘it is not the beginning of the end but the end of the beginning’ and finally gets us to the starting line of exiting the EU in a grown up way. A two year transition period (at least) post departure is sensible as the economy slows and uncertainties for businesses mount. It marks the end of the nonsense that ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’.
Those who advocate a clean break from the EU with little or no payment simply don’t get it. No one can forecast the full, long term impact of leaving Europe or indeed the benefits of doing so but the near future is damaged. We are now one of the slowest growing economies in Europe with further pressures to follow. We have a fantastic employment record (all whilst being a member of the EU) but this could reverse. We need an agreement first on money so that we can reach agreements on cross border regulation, in particular to protect our Financial Services industry, on enshrining the rights of European citizens under the European Court of Justice in UK law (a neat compromise) to keep talented European individuals in the UK and on a decent trade deal to protect our overall economy. That is before securing terms for an open border with Northern Ireland and new structures for mutual cooperation on research and security issues.
Some Brexit Cabinet Ministers have been heard to muse in private that we are better off outside the EU and poorer than being inside the EU and accepting its constraints. Try telling that to thousands of employees in the Financial Services sector alone who will lose their administration jobs as back offices are re-located to continental Europe. Leaving the EU is a serious game with the futures of many people reliant on getting the exit terms right. Theresa May’s speech was a step (finally) in the right direction. It is a time for compromise not ideology, a phased departure not a cliff-edge.
Which takes us to the imminent Conservative Party Conference. As we all suspected, this Sunday’s papers underscore what poisonous relationships exist within the current Cabinet. It is too much to expect many members not to be on manoeuvres during their happy stay in Manchester. One hopes they will be suitably punished in any future leadership contest.
Inside Right Politics 